216
FXUS64 KFWD 080035
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
635 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record to record high temperatures are expected tomorrow
  afternoon south of Highway 380. Highs will range from the low to
  mid 80s.

- A cold front Saturday night will usher in an extended period of
  near to slightly below average temperatures (40s and 50s) for
  the area.

- Two back to back storm systems Monday night into Wednesday will
  bring several rounds of rain to the area (80 to 90 percent
  chance). The highest rainfall totals (up to 2 inches) are most
  likely to occur east of the Highway 75/I-45 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/

A slow-moving warm front resulted in quite a high temperature
spread across the CWA this afternoon, with spots in Central Texas
climbing as high as the mid 80s while our Texoma counties remained
socked in with cloud cover and only reached the lower 50s. As of
6PM, this boundary remains draped just north of the I-20 corridor,
but should acquire an extra northward push overnight as low-
level southerly flow increases. This will also send a swath of low
stratus northward over much of the area to begin Saturday
morning, with an anomalously mild and humid start to the morning
by early February standards. Veering southwesterly surface winds
should allow temperatures to warm quickly during the daytime while
simultaneously rapidly eroding the low stratus deck from west to
east. The result should be near-record or perhaps record-breaking
high temperatures for many locations, especially sites along and
south of I-20. Expect most areas to reach the low/mid 80s, with
perhaps a few of our southwestern zones flirting with 90 degrees.

By mid afternoon, the aforementioned warm front which will have
retreated off to the north overnight will be sent back southward
as a cold front, resulting in a return to north winds and cold
advection across North Texas. A lack of strong ascent combined
with meager instability will mean this front will come through
dry for most locations despite the abnormal warm/moist conditions
present in the near-surface layer. At most, a couple of shallow
rain showers may be able to develop beneath the capping inversion
across East Texas as the boundary moves through tomorrow evening,
but rain chances will be less than 10%. Robust cold advection
behind the front will send lows falling into the 40s and lower 50s
as it clears the entire forecast area by Sunday morning, with
perhaps even some upper 30s across the northwest.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 206 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025/
/Sunday through Thursday Night/

...Sunday through Tuesday Night...

By Sunday morning, the cold front will have stalled out somewhere
along or near the US-84 corridor. Locations north of this front
will have a cloudy and dreary day, with highs in the 50s and
periodic drizzle (40 to 50 percent chance). Along and south of the
stalled frontal zone, morning clouds should give way to afternoon
periods of sun. Temperatures in this region will warm to near 70
degrees.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS is expected to begin its
move to the east heading into Monday. Broad synoptic scale forcing
for ascent ahead of this trough in conjunction with enhanced
mesoscale lift along the stalled frontal boundary will result in
scattered (30 to 50 percent chance) light rain showers by Monday
afternoon, particularly north of the I-20 corridor. Monday night
as the primary vort max ejects into the southern Great Plains,
widespread rain (70 to 90 percent chance) will develop across
north and central Texas. There will be an upper-level boundary on
which elevated convection will be favored, bisecting the forecast
area roughly southwest to northeast. With storm motions parallel
to this boundary and PWAT values up to 1.5 inches, periods of
heavy rain are expected, primarily east of I-35 and north of
US-84. Most will see rainfall amounts of around half an inch,
though local amounts (20 to 30 percent chance) of 1 to 2 inches
will be possible east of the US-75/I-45 corridor. Rain will end
Tuesday evening from west to east, with the last showers moving
out of the area by midnight Tuesday night.

...Wednesday and Thursday...

Immediately behind the first storm system next week, another
disturbance will eject into the central Great Plains on Wednesday.
With this system being further north, slightly drier, and more
progressive in nature, rainfall totals will be lower on Wednesday
compared to Monday night into Tuesday, despite a second day of
widespread rain showers area wide (60 to 80 percent chance). Most
will see around a quarter inch of rain, with localized amounts (20
percent chance) of up to an inch again east of the US-75/I-45
corridor.

Behind this second system, the coldest air of the week will surge
south and bring morning lows on Thursday below freezing. The
coldest temperatures are expected northwest of Highway 377,
dipping into the low/mid 20s. Fortunately, precipitation looks to
end before sub-freezing temperatures arrive late Wednesday night.
As such, no wintry precip is expected at this time.

Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

A warm front remains draped across the northern fringes of D10 as
of 00z, with the northern TAF sites of DFW and AFW periodically
still exhibiting NE surface winds. However, as this boundary
continues to slowly advance northward this evening, a more
prominent SSW wind will become established while increasing in
speed to 10-15 kts overnight. The increased south flow will also
send a swath of low stratus northward, with all sites becoming
MVFR between 06-08z. Veering southwesterly winds may lead to a
fairly quick erosion of these cigs tomorrow morning, with VFR
likely to prevail after 15-16z at the latest. The same frontal
boundary presently draped across North Texas will be sent back
southward as a cold front tomorrow afternoon, resulting in a north
wind shift at D10 airports around 21-22z. It is unclear if post-
frontal stratus will result in cigs following its passage, but a
period of MVFR could materialize tomorrow evening just beyond the
current TAF period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  84  46  54  43 /   0   0   0   5  20
Waco                67  84  53  61  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               59  80  47  51  41 /   5   5   5  20  30
Denton              60  82  41  51  40 /   0   0   0   5  20
McKinney            62  82  44  52  42 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dallas              64  84  48  55  44 /   0   0   0   5  20
Terrell             66  82  49  56  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
Corsicana           68  83  54  60  47 /   0   0   0   5  10
Temple              65  85  55  63  48 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       61  85  41  53  41 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$