423
FXUS64 KFWD 302322
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
622 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Monday Night/

Hot, humid, and generally precipitation free conditions will
prevail through the early part of the week with near record high
minimum temperatures in the lower 80s at night and afternoon highs
at or above 100 degrees on Monday. Heat index values will continue
to range between 105-110 across much of the region. Some slightly
drier air is expected on Monday west of I-35 and some of those
counties have been removed from the Heat Advisory where afternoon
mixing should keep heat indices closer to actual air temperatures.
A pool of 2"+ PWs will be located across East Texas Monday
afternoon and could support a little more coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Most of this activity will remain to
our east, but we`ll have some 20% PoPs in our far eastern counties
through late afternoon. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions will
persist.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/
Update:

The forecast discussion below remains in good shape for the
extended period. North & Central TX will continue to experience
hot temperatures near the triple digit mark for much of the week,
including the 4th of July holiday. An upper level trough will
slide through the Plains Days 6-7, with a cold front likely
knocking highs down into the 90s and bringing low storm chances.

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Widespread triple digit heat is expected throughout the week, with
rain chances remaining near zero for most of the period. Despite
a slight increase in temperatures, slightly lower humidity will
keep heat index values close to or even slightly lower than we saw
this past week - generally between 103-111 degrees. Expect
ongoing heat headlines to continue through most of the week.

Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge
will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves
into the Central CONUS. As a result, a weak front may slide into
the region and would serve as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. The best potential for showers and storms is
currently expected to be on Friday and Saturday. However, keep an
eye on the forecast if you have any July 4th plans, as timing is
subject to change over the next few days. This will likely bring
a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures, with
high temperatures in the 90s currently forecast for next weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with southerly flow around 10 kt. Wind direction
will vary some between 160-220 degrees on Monday, but no major
impacts should be noted. Scattered afternoon showers/storms may
have a little better coverage in East Texas Monday afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83 101  82 102  83 /   0   5   0   0   0
Waco                79 100  79 101  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  97  77  97  78 /  20  20   5   0   0
Denton              79 101  79 103  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
McKinney            80 100  79 101  81 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              83 101  82 102  83 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             78  99  79 100  79 /   0  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           80 100  79 101  81 /   0  10   0   0   0
Temple              77 100  78 101  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       78 101  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ129-130-141>143-
156-157.

&&

$$