241
FXUS64 KFWD 050019
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog may develop tonight as a weak cold front arrives
  from the north. Cool and breezy conditions are expected on
  Thursday.

- Additional rain chances arrive across North and Central Texas
  Friday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

As the sun sets across the region, the disturbance that moved
through earlier today is slowly exiting to the east. Plenty of
cloud cover remains thanks to the continued influx of deep layer
moisture. However, the bulk of the ascent will continue shifting
east through the rest of today.

As we head into the night, the main weather challenge will be the
expected development of fog ahead of an incoming cold front.
Given the already saturated ground due to today`s precipitation,
fog will develop for a few hours, some of which may be locally
dense. There are still some uncertainties in the location of
greatest fog potential, thus, a Dense Fog Advisory will not be
issued with this forecast cycle. If confidence increases later
tonight, one may be issued for a few hours if necessary.

As the front advances southward tonight, any fog that develops
will dissipate with the arrival of low-level dry air. The cold
front will also help to get the low clouds out of our region with
some high clouds remaining through tomorrow afternoon.

Highs tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 50s across North Texas
with a northerly breeze between 10-15 mph through much of the day.

Widespread freezing temperatures will return tomorrow night for
areas along and north of I-20. For those south of I-20, mid to
upper 30s can be expected.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 225 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024/
Update:
The previous forecast remains in good shape, and no significant
changes were made with this afternoon`s update. Some areas will
dip below freezing Thursday night/Friday morning, with the best
potential for sub-freezing temperatures expected along and north
of US-380 and in rural locations across our far eastern and
western zones. There is still unusually low confidence in both the
overall potential and expected areal coverage of precipitation on
Friday, with some higher resolution guidance keeping us mostly dry
for much of the day. On the other hand, confidence continues to
increase in the potential for showers and thunderstorms late
Friday through early Sunday. Expected rainfall totals and timing
remain unchanged from the previous forecast. Showers and storms
should clear out sometime late Sunday. Looking ahead to next week,
our next strong cold front will bring another blast of cold air
to the region by early to mid week.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Modest low level warm advection will commence atop a cold surface
airmass late Thursday night with cloud cover increasing rapidly
from the southwest during the overnight hours. This will likely
result in a fairly hefty gradient in low temperatures from the
upper 20s in the northeast where skies remain clear to near 40 in
the southwest. Areas of light rain will likely develop across the
Big Bend region into the Big Country by daybreak Friday, although
there is still some uncertainty in the coverage of precipitation
through Friday. This is partly due to the very dry airmass in
place prior to the warm moist advection spreading north. We`ll
have some generally low PoPs across our southwest spreading north
through the day Friday. All of this is in response to an upper low
digging through the Desert Southwest and into northwest Mexico.

As this low digs south, a secondary upstream shortwave will help
amplify the pattern a bit and kick this low out across the
Southern Plains. Timing of this secondary shortwave will play a
factor in the timing of best precipitation chances through the
weekend across Central and North Texas. It now looks more likely
that ample moisture will be close enough to the region for most of
North and Central Texas to see rainfall. Ensemble cluster analysis
has trended wetter with about 65% of the members, including a
sizable chunk of the ECMWF members, showing at least one shot of
widespread rain late Friday through early Sunday. The
aforementioned timing uncertainty remains, but we`ve trended the
forecast a little wetter with this package. The consensus of the
guidance shows that the best rain chances will coincide with the
strongest height falls spreading into the Southern Plains which
looks like it will occur late Saturday into Saturday night, so
we`ve nudged the NBM PoPs upward through this timeframe, although
some adjustments will likely be needed over the next 48 hours.
Rainfall amounts have also been adjusted upward with widespread
totals of 0.5 to 1.5 inches and higher end amounts approaching 3
inches in our far southeast counties through Sunday. While this
will be a strongly forced system, a lack of any surface based or
substantial elevated instability will limit any potential for
severe weather. Clearing should occur late Sunday with another
cold front spreading south through the Plains Monday night.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

IFR remains across all North and Central Texas TAF sites as poor
visibility and low ceilings continue. Winds are currently out of
the south, however, a wind shift is expected to arrive closer to
04Z and switch our winds back out of the north.

Expect poor visibility to continue through much of the night as
fog temporarily impacts mainly the North Texas airports.
Visibility may drop to around 1SM before improving closer to
sunrise.

Tomorrow, significant improvements are expected as drier air
filters in from the north and northwest. Wind speeds tomorrow will
be around 15 kts with gusts near 20 kts with VFR conditions.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  55  34  51  40 /   0   0   0  10  40
Waco                48  59  36  51  40 /   5   0   0  30  60
Paris               41  52  29  48  36 /   5   0   0   0  30
Denton              39  54  28  51  37 /   0   0   0  10  40
McKinney            41  54  29  51  36 /   0   0   0   5  40
Dallas              45  56  34  51  40 /   0   0   0  10  40
Terrell             43  56  30  51  37 /   0   0   0   5  50
Corsicana           48  59  35  53  40 /  10   0   0  10  50
Temple              47  61  35  53  38 /   5   0   0  30  50
Mineral Wells       40  57  30  53  37 /   0   0   0  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$