Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
500 FXUS64 KFWD 241101 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 601 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and mostly dry weather will continue into Monday. - An approaching cold front will bring increasing rain chances and eventually cooler air into North Texas Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 126 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ /Overnight through Monday/ North Texas is on the eastern periphery of stronger mid level ridging centered over the Desert Southwest and an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS. Broad surface high pressure across the central U.S. has resulted in a light northeast flow across our region which will continue through the day today. GOES total PW imagery shows a pocket of better moisture draped across southern Oklahoma and far North Texas. This will rotate around the ridge to our west through morning and could initiate an isolated shower or two, but overall rain chances will be less than 10% this morning. With generally weak flow aloft and only modest PWs across the region this afternoon, Sunday should remain mostly dry with scattered cumulus clouds. While an isolated high based shower could develop during peak heating, most areas will remain rain free with PoPs around 5%. Ridging will weaken some later today as stronger troughing digs across the eastern CONUS. This will send a cold front southward into Oklahoma tonight as stronger northwest flow aloft develops. This should result in a cluster of storms developing across Oklahoma overnight, most of which should remain to our north. We`ll have to see how much outflow pushes off of this cluster of storms as new activity is likely to spread south toward the Red River by early Monday morning. For now, we`ll keep Monday mainly dry, but will continue to monitor this potential. High temps both today and Monday will top out in the mid 90s areawide with heat index values right around 100 degrees. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 126 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ /Monday Night through Saturday/ Convection is likely to begin spreading south of the Red River late Monday night into Tuesday as the cold front pushes farther south. Rain chances will generally be 20-30% north of I-20 late Monday night and increasing to 20-40% areawide during the day Tuesday. There is some indication that the ridge axis to our west will shift eastward a bit into Texas during the day Tuesday. This would shift the more favorable synoptic lift farther to the north and east out of our area by Tuesday afternoon. Despite this, the presence of the frontal boundary in our area during peak heating should support at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This initial push of cooler air will result in high temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday with a warmup back into the 90s by Thursday. A secondary push of cooler air looks like it will arrive on Friday with another increase in rain chances across the region. At this time, our north and northeast counties will have the best chances for rainfall through the week with some areas picking up around 1 inch of rain. Lighter amounts are expected south of I-20. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with a light northeast flow around 5-10 kt. Winds will gradually become more east-southeast this evening. Isolated TS chances around 5-10% through peak afternoon heating. Otherwise, no significant aviation concerns. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 76 96 74 87 / 0 0 0 10 20 Waco 95 74 95 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 20 Paris 95 72 93 69 81 / 0 0 5 30 30 Denton 97 74 96 71 86 / 0 0 5 20 30 McKinney 97 73 96 70 85 / 0 0 5 10 30 Dallas 98 77 97 75 89 / 0 0 0 5 20 Terrell 96 72 95 70 87 / 0 0 0 5 20 Corsicana 97 73 96 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 20 Temple 96 71 96 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 95 71 96 70 87 / 0 0 5 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$