173
FXUS64 KFWD 191153
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold! Wind chills in the single digits to teens are expected
  each morning through Wednesday. Highs may struggle to get above
  freezing in some areas through Tuesday.

- Snow is expected across parts of Central and North Texas Monday
  night into early Tuesday. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be
  possible with some minor travel impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Cold wind chills are ongoing this early Sunday morning with most
locations in the single digits to lower teens. As we continue
through the day, most locations will rise above freezing this
afternoon. Minor adjustments were made to today`s highs to account
for the increased potential for highs to remain at or below
freezing along the immediate Red River.

Another cold night is in store tonight with wind chills once again
in the single digits to lower teens. For that reason, the Cold
Weather Advisory has been extended through late Monday afternoon.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

A cold Sunday morning is transpiring throughout North and Central
Texas as temperatures continue their descent. Temperatures will
bottom out in the teens to mid 20s with wind chill values in the
single digits to lower teens. For that reason, a Cold Weather
Advisory will continue through the mid-morning.

A narrow band of forcing along the I-20 corridor is leading to
light snow falling from the clouds. Given the dry low-levels, much
of the snow is sublimating before reaching the ground. Still, a
few snow flakes cannot be ruled out prior to 4 AM for areas west
of the I-35 corridor. The flurries are unlikely to cause any
impacts.

After sunrise, temperatures will be slow to warm up given the
continued northerly winds. Much of the region is likely climb
into the mid to upper 30s, however, a few spots along the Red
River may stay at or slightly below 32 degrees all day today.
Winds will gradually weaken in the afternoon, however, wind chill
will remain below 30 degrees throughout the region.

As the sun sets this evening, temperatures will quickly descend
into the teens to lower 20s with wind chills once again in the
single digits to lower teens. Another Cold Weather Advisory is
looking likely for tonight.

As high pressure shifts east early Monday morning, winds will
generally become easterly reducing the amount of cold air
advection. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures will most likely
climb above freezing at all locations. Those across Central Texas
will stay in the lower 40s with 30s across North Texas.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/
/Monday Night Onward/

A frigid arctic airmass will encompass all of North and Central
Texas (and all surrounding locations) through the middle of the
week, with lows in the teens and 20s expected each night.
Tuessday`s high temperatures will remain in the 30s, and some
locations may not climb above freezing Tuesday afternoon. The area
with the highest probabilities of staying at or below 32 will be
the far southeast zones where snow may still cover the ground, or
the far northwest zones closer to the origin of the cold airmass.

Speaking of snow, the upstream disturbance anticipated to be
responsible for our upcoming precipitation currently resides over
British Columbia. This feature will drop south through the
Pacific Northwest today, the Rockies tonight and Monday, then
southeast across Texas Monday night and Tuesday. Synoptic scale
ascent should be strong enough to result in light, unimpactful
snow across much of the region during the Monday night-Tuesday
morning time frame. An added element of isentropic upglide over
the surface frontal layer will result in occasional moderate
precipitation, also starting Monday night. This latter form of
lift will occur mainly over Southeast Texas and the Gulf Coast
states.

Central Texas will be on the northern flank of the occasional
moderate precipitation, which could result in up to 2 inches of
snow, with areas roughly along and south of a line from Palestine
to Temple being in that zone. The rest of the Central Texas
counties could still receive up to one inch, with lesser values
the farther north you go. The current forecast will advertise a
couple of tenths of an inch along the I-20 corridor, with trace
amounts along the Red River. Since 2-inch totals are on the upper
end of forecast, a Winter Storm Watch will likely not be needed,
but a Winter Weather Advisory should become necessary tonight or
Monday.

The storm system will work its way to the eastern Gulf Coast
states Tuesday night, leaving clearing skies and more bitter cold
in its wake. Wednesday morning will start with temperatures again
in the teens and 20s, but a southeastward shift in the surface
ridge and the resulting southwest winds will push afternoon
temperatures into the 40s. A trailing shortwave will send another
glancing shot of arctic air through the region Wednesday night,
dropping temperatures into the 20s by daybreak Thursday. Plentiful
sun will allow temperatures to climb to near 50 Thursday
afternoon, but yet another night in the 20s is expected Thursday
night.

Winds will return to the south on Friday along with sunshine, and
temperatures should reach the 50s area-wide Friday afternoon.
Friday night may be the first time this week that low temperatures
remain above freezing, though we will still drop into the 30s. The
next cold front will arrive late next weekend, followed by rain
chances early the following week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Gusty northerly winds continue throughout North and Central Texas,
at times gusting to around 30 knots. This is expected to continue
through the rest of the morning hours before winds slightly
diminish this afternoon. This afternoon`s wind gusts will remain
below 20 knots with clear skies in place.

Winds will begin to veer tonight, becoming east/northeasterly
after midnight. Wind speeds will be below 10 knots through the
rest of the forecast cycle as mid-level clouds begin to move in
from the south.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    36  20  37  23  33 /   0   0   0  30   5
Waco                39  20  40  24  35 /   0   0   0  50  10
Paris               34  18  32  20  32 /   0   0   0  20  10
Denton              34  14  35  19  32 /   0   0   0  20   5
McKinney            34  16  35  20  32 /   0   0   0  20   5
Dallas              36  21  37  23  34 /   0   0   0  30   5
Terrell             36  17  37  22  33 /   0   0   0  30  10
Corsicana           38  21  38  24  35 /   0   0   0  50  20
Temple              39  17  39  23  35 /   0   0   0  70  20
Mineral Wells       36  17  36  21  33 /   0   0   0  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$