Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
976 FXUS64 KFWD 100948 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 448 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures with low rain chances are expected each day this week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ /Today through Wednesday/ A bit of a pattern change will commence across North and Central Texas today through the middle of this week, with a weak H5 low moving westward into the state while an upper trough digs slightly southward into the southern Plains. This change will knock temperatures down a tad more than we have seen with highs in the 90s to around 100 - which is right around normal for this time of year - as well as bring us low rain chances each day. Best rain chances will be in two zones - our southern and eastern counties which will see some seabreeze activity, and our western and northern counties where convection may develop/spread southward out of Oklahoma. The middle of our forecast area, including the Metroplex, looks to stay in between these areas of higher rain chances and should see less coverage of any precip. For today, a few showers and storms appear possible in our far south and east as the HRRR suggests. However, coverage should be quite low so have only inserted a 10 percent chance for precip this afternoon. Rain chances will increase areawide tomorrow then peak on Tuesday as the upper low moves directly overhead, before decreasing again Wednesday. Forecast soundings each day show inverted-V type profiles with MLCAPE and DCAPE up to 1500 J/Kg along with fairly high PWATs near the 2 inch mark. Although nothing widespread is anticipated, given the environment a few storms could get robust each day with strong downburst/microburst winds. Shamburger && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ /Thursday through Saturday/ The upper level pattern will transition again from late week into next weekend as a large H5 ridge builds along the Gulf Coast and extends westward into Texas. 00Z models are not as aggressive with the strength of the ridge or its western extent, and subsequently do not heat us back up as previous runs showed with temperatures remaining near normal. This also will keep a slight rain chance in the forecast each day, mainly across our far eastern and southeastern counties. Shamburger && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just a few low and mid level clouds expected. South to southeast winds up to 12 knots are also anticipated through tomorrow. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 79 96 77 95 / 5 0 10 10 30 Waco 95 75 94 75 95 / 5 0 10 10 30 Paris 96 74 94 73 94 / 10 0 10 5 30 Denton 99 75 97 74 95 / 5 0 10 10 30 McKinney 97 76 96 74 95 / 5 0 10 5 30 Dallas 98 79 97 78 97 / 5 0 10 10 30 Terrell 96 74 95 73 95 / 10 0 20 5 30 Corsicana 97 76 96 75 96 / 10 0 20 5 30 Temple 96 74 95 73 95 / 0 0 10 10 30 Mineral Wells 99 73 97 72 95 / 0 0 10 20 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$