772
FXUS63 KFSD 241101
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
601 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fall-like weather continues into the middle of the upcoming
  week. Near record low temperatures possible Monday and Tuesday
  mornings.

- While a few sprinkles may be in the region the upcoming days,
  the next appreciable rain risk won`t arrive until the end of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

THIS MORNING: Mid-lvl cloud deck lingering on the western periphery
of a large upper trough moving through the Great Lakes continues to
be very poorly resolved by short term models.  This cloud layer may
persist into the daybreak hours, having a minor impact on the fall
of temperatures. With falling temperatures and warm river/lake
water, very patchy fog may be possible near daybreak.

TODAY: Another nearly perfect mid-late August day is expected in the
region as a breezy northerly wind continues and high temperatures
rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Afternoon diurnal CU field is
again expected.

TONIGHT:  Variable cloud cover will again be possible into Monday
morning, as mid-lvl moisture continues to rotate around the upper
trough.  However as surface high pressure moves through the region,
surface winds should turn light to calm at times leading to both
potential for river/valley fog but also very cool temperatures.
Should overnight lows fall into the middle 40s, these readings will
approach record levels at both Sioux Falls and Sioux City.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Very quiet conditions continue Monday and Tuesday as
we`ll remain within sharp northerly low-mid level flow.  After highs
again in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday, we`ll see very chilly
overnight lows Tuesday morning. Temperatures may begin to warm
slightly on Tuesday as surface flow turns southerly west of I-29.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Mid-lvl heights begin to rise through the end of
the week, but moisture return northward remains quite marginal.
Greatest forecast uncertainty revolves around a weak trough that
drops into the Upper Midwest in the Wednesday timeframe. Should
sufficient elevated moisture arrive, then isolated to scattered
showers could develop on the nose of the LLJ. For the rest of the
period, precipitation signals remain low and scattered through the
region. This results in a continuation of very low probabilities (10-
20%) for 0.10" of rainfall in most locations Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures remain slightly below normal into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour TAF period.
Afternoon diurnal CU field will dissipate by early evening. A
breezy northerly wind for most of the daytime hours will also
turn light and variable later in the evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux