051
FXUS63 KFSD 102304
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
604 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally above normal temperatures persist into this weekend.
  Normal to a bit below normal temperatures expected next week.

- Rain chances increase (30-60%) late Saturday into Sunday with
  the passage of a cold front. Timing uncertainty of the frontal
  passage may lead to changes in which areas see the best
  chance of rain, so keep up to date with the latest forecast.

- A few rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday night and
  Sunday, but severe weather is not expected.

- Additional chances (around 25%) for rain are possible into
  parts of next week though details are uncertain and confidence
  is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

NOW THROUGH TONIGHT: Pleasant but breezy day (at least for areas
east of I-29). We`ve warmed into the mid 60s to lower 70s, and
should warm a couple more degrees this afternoon. Surface high
pressure continues to slide east through tonight, so should see
lighter winds shift southerly overnight and begin to increase west
of the James River. Mids and high clouds begin to increase
overnight, as the mid level ridge axis slides east as well, with
short wave and upper level jet streak moving over the Plains.

With the short wave and stronger LLJ, there may be enough forcing
for some sprinkles/showers west of the James River by daybreak.
However, we`ll be dealing with a very dry sub cloud layer so think
that any precipitation reaching the ground will be very isolated.
Lows tonight drop into the 40s along and east of the James, and into
the 50s west where southerly flow and WAA return more quickly.

SATURDAY: Sprinkles and showers may continue through the day
Saturday off and on as the mid level short wave tracks east. Again,
not sure how much will reach the ground given the dry sub cloud
layer. Taking a step back for the overall synoptic pattern, mid and
upper level ridge continues to move east, with mid/upper level
troughing out west deepening as it moves onto the west coast early
Saturday and into the Rockies by Saturday night. Surface low
develops across the western Dakotas.

Outside of any isolated showers/sprinkles during the day, expect
similar temperatures to today and breezy conditions. Wind gusts
again will be strongest west of the James, around 35 mph to around
25 mph in our far east. Strongest winds will be offset from the
lowest RH, leading to elevated but not significant fire concerns as
we warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: Ridge axis continues to move east Saturday
night. Better rain chances with a more focused wave lifting north
across the Dakotas, generally focused of I-29. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible with weak elevated instability. Saturday night
will be breezy with a compressing pressure gradient with surface low
lifting east. This treks through ND with a secondary low across NE,
dragging a cold front through the area Sunday into Sunday night.
Sunday will be breezy (gusts again around 35 mph) and much warmer
with WAA ahead of the front. We`ll warm into the upper 70s and lower
80s, with rain chances through the day.

NBM might be overdoing the pops during the day Sunday as the front
continues to slow, but not enough confidence that we won`t have
scattered activity with the pre frontal trough/preceding wave to
trim NBM at this time. Depending on the timing of the front, could
see widespread elevated fire danger Sunday afternoon. Guidance
slowing the front down is leading to some increased pops Sunday
night. Could hear a couple rumbles of thunder Sunday into Sunday
night with weak (less than 500 J/kg) instability. Although some
machine learning indicates low (less than 10%) probability of severe
weather, think that this is driven entirely by the strong 0-6 km
bulk shear - in some locations over 60 kts Sunday night. Not
expecting any severe weather or stronger storms given the lack of
instability and meager mid level lapse rates.

Sunday night may be on the breezy side with the tight surface
pressure gradient and the strong CAA, which continues into Monday
morning. Colder day on Monday with continued strong CAA and lower
level northerly flow. Winds may weaken during the day as surface
high pressure slides into the area, although we may still mix some
breezier gusts down (around 25 mph). Any lingering precip should be
more isolated showers.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Southwesterly flow aloft continues into the middle
part of next week with surface high pressure moving east. By
Wednesday, high pressure aloft over the southern Plains begins to
amplify in most of the models in response to deepening trough off
the west coast. Models show even less agreement in 10.12z run than
the 10.00z run, with the GFS now showing a strong low mid and upper
low swinging through the Dakotas as early as Thursday morning, with
the Canadian/ECMWF are a day (or more) later with this. Thus, low
confidence in the forecast, especially with precipitation chances
mid week onward. Generally should see near to below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions continue into the overnight hours. After
midnight, we`ll begin to see a gradual lowering of ceilings
towards the 10-15K AGL mark as moisture moves in from the
southwest. A few showers are likely to form through daybreak in
central SD and northern NE moving northeast through the morning.

After this initial round of very light rain passes through,
windy, warm, and dry conditions are likely through the
afternoon. VFR ceilings and visibility will continue.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...Dux