062
FXUS63 KFSD 091948
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of seasonally warm temperatures will
  continue for much of the upcoming week. Highs could
  potentially set new records on Monday and again during the
  later parts of the week.

- Elevated fire danger will continue through this evening and
  again on Monday north of I-90 and along the highway-14
  corridor.

- A strong spring storm will lift through the region from Friday
  through Saturday potentially bringing periods of rain, high
  winds, and even snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A warm and breezy day continues! Taking a look
across the area, partly cloudy skies continue with most areas
sitting in the low to upper 50s with the warmest conditions across
the highway-14 corridor. Expect most areas to top out in the upper
50s to low 60s for the day before we lose diurnal heating melting
most of our remains snowpack across the Missouri River Valley.
Otherwise, marginally breezy westerly to northwesterly winds this
afternoon have promoted some locally elevated fire weather concerns
(details in the fire weather section). However, we should see this
lingering potential taper off just after sunset as winds become
lighter. Lastly, should see continue should see most areas stay
above freezing overnight as overnight lows gradually decrease into
the low to upper 30s.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Heading into the new week, even warmer conditions
will be on tap by Monday as temperatures approach +8 to +12 degrees
at 850 mb. This combined with deeper mixing and westerly surface
winds will help our highs reach 60s to low 70s with the warmest
condition along the Missouri River Valley and west of the James
River. With this in mind, could see a few areas (KHON & KSUX) get
within a few degrees of setting record highs for the day. Otherwise,
increasing northwesterly winds during the afternoon will lead to
more elevated fire weather concerns mostly north of I-90 (specifics
in fire weather section). However, potential will taper down by the
evening hours. Looking aloft, a cold front will swing through the
region from Monday night into Tuesday bringing breezier conditions
overnight along with a strong push of CAA. While this along with
easterly surface winds will lead to a temporary drop in temperatures
on Tuesday (low to upper 40s), will see our temperatures quickly
recover on Wednesday and Thursday as multiple pushes of WAA lead
temperatures back into the 60s and 70s with the warmest conditions
on Thursday. Lastly, a return to warmer temperatures along with
increasing wind speeds will lead to elevated fire danger during the
latter parts of the week which we`ll have to monitor moving forward.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Looking into the weekend, temperatures will
continue to warm into Friday as a thermal ridge moves overhead
bringing another strong push of WAA aloft. With increasing cloud
cover and southeasterly flow in place expect temperatures to
gradually warm during the first half of the day with highs likely
topping out in the low to upper 60s (and potentially low 70s). From
here, the focus will shift towards the southern Rockies as a
deepening trough lifts into the northern and central plains between
Friday afternoon and Saturday bringing our next precipitation
chances (60%-90%). Looking at 09.12z deterministic guidance, most
model guidance is in pretty good agreement that the center of the
surface low will lift through northwestern and northcentral IA by
Monday night potentially bringing a few thunderstorms to those areas
as the dry slot passes through. On the back side of the low,
we`ll see areas of rain transition to light snow with the TROWL
by Saturday morning as surface winds strengthen. While key
details such as the timing of the transition to snow and overall
amounts remain uncertain, most ensemble guidance continue to
show high confidence (70% or more) in measurable rain and snow
with this system along with strong winds. With this in mind,
make sure to monitor the latest forecast especially if you have
any upcoming travel plans!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the TAF period.
Taking a look at satellite imagery, mostly clear skies persist
this afternoon with breezy westerly winds. While we could see a
brief uptick in wind speeds this afternoon, expected our winds
to drop off after sunset becoming light southwesterly winds to
end the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Taking a look across the area, starting to see some scattered dry
spots across central SD and portions of southwestern MN where
relative humidity values have approached the 25-35 percent range
this afternoon. However, westerly to northwesterly winds speeds
continue to be on the marginal side with gusts between 20-30 mph
being recorded with the strongest wind speeds over our higher
elevation areas. With this in mind, our current SPS looks to be in
good shape with areas from Huron (Beadle) to Chamberlain (Brule)
still looking like the better corridor for truly elevated conditions
this afternoon. The SPS will run through about 5 PM before expiring.

Looking into Monday, we`ll have to keep an eye on fire weather side
of things again. Similar to today, an influx of warmer and drier air
will lead to decreasing dew points and thus lower relative humidity
values between 20-30 percent which is within critical thresholds.
However, the question comes with the wind speeds. While mixing will
gradually deepen during the afternoon hours, most soundings only
show a narrow window from 3pm to 7pm where we`ll be able to get
those stronger wind speeds (25-35 mph gusts) collocated with the
driest RH values with the focus being along and north of I-90. With
this in mind, the setup is decent enough to where we could see a few
hours of Red Flag conditions in the afternoon hours. However, with
lingering uncertainty regarding the wind speeds; decided to forgo
any issuance of headlines on this shift. Instead, we`ll continue to
message the elevated conditions north of I-90.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05