451
FXUS63 KFSD 092305
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
605 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist into this weekend.
  Some hints that we will transition to normal to a bit below
  normal temperatures next week.

- The next best chance for rain will arrive Saturday evening
  and continue into Sunday.

- Additional chances for rain are possible into the middle of
  next week though details are very uncertain and confidence
  low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A cool front will sag south tonight bringing slightly cool
conditions to the area, albeit above normal still. This front is not
expected to produce any precipitation. A few models indicate some
weak capped instability in northwest IA, but for now this does not
look to produce anything. Otherwise some shallow moisture will work
into the area tonight with surface dew points possibly creeping up
around 60 ahead of the incoming front. This could produce a little
fog or lower stratus before the cool front moves in. The better
chances for this will be far southern SD, northeast NE and northwest
IA. Friday should see quite a bit of sunshine, lighter winds and
very pleasant temperatures with highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

A trough of low pressure begins to deepen well to the west of the
area, but spreads a bit more unstable air and moisture into central
SD by Saturday afternoon. The combination of weak lift from the
incoming lead short wave and weak instability should produce a few
showers. Low level dry air is likely to be a limiting factor in
terms of how widespread these showers could become as well as
amounts. The better push from this weak wave will be late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening mainly west of I-29 and north of I-
90. Another weak wave surges into areas near and east of I-29 Sunday
morning through mid Sunday afternoon before dry air aloft surges in
ahead of the main upper level wave heading northeast into ND. This
could bring another round of showers and very isolated
thunderstorms, but once again moisture will likely make this a
struggle. Still some disagreements amongst the models. The EC
indicates a bit more elevated instability and thus the EC Ensemble
has scattered half to three quarter inch amounts while the GEFS has
lesser instability with scattered quarter to third of an inch
amounts.

Outside of precipitation chances elevated fire weather is expected
Sunday with southerly winds gusting around 35 mph. Relative humidity
is expected to remain above 35 percent or so so at this time not
anticipating red flag conditions.

Sunday night will see a strong cold push as the stronger wave to the
north moves east of the area. the 925 mb to 850 mb winds are running
about 35 to 45 knots so will likely see a period Sunday evening when
winds ramp up with surface gusts of 35 to 45 mph likely, possibly
higher.

Cooler, possibly below normal temperatures are expected Monday and
Tuesday behind this front, but the latest models do indicate that we
could see a rebound on Tuesday, especially west of I-29 so will see
how these trends pan out. Temperatures remain near normal during
this time with small chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions expected through the night and well into Friday.
Scattered mid-lvl cloud deck along and east of I-29 will
continue to drift eastward overnight, leaving clear skies and
only a slight bit of cirrus in place into morning.

A weak front moves through the area overnight, pushing surface
winds back to northwest and then north through the day. VFR skies
are anticipated.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Dux