345
FXUS63 KFSD 041145
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
645 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Developing areas of rain, snow, and/or wintry mix will
  continue to gradually spread eastwards throughout the day
  today. While rain will be the predominant precipitation type,
  could see some areas of light wet snow start to filter in this
  afternoon/evening mostly north of I-90.

- The most beneficial rainfall amounts are expected west of an
  Arlington to Salem to Wagner line with moderate to high
  confidence (50%-80%) in equaling or exceeding a quarter inch
  of of rainfall according to ensemble guidance.

- Mostly quiet conditions return to the region through the
  midweek with near to above normal temperatures persisting.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: Another dreary day is ahead! Taking a look at
satellite imagery, areas of stratus and mid-level clouds continue to
filter into areas west of I-29 this morning as light to moderate
rain showers develop across northcentral NE ahead of our next subtle
wave. While most of this isn`t reaching the ground just yet due
drier air in the lower levels, expect shower and cloud coverage to
gradually expand and push northeastwards towards daybreak as the
wave "rides the ridge" into our area. While confidence is low, can`t
completely rule out a brief wintry mix across our portions of the
highway-14 corridor and Buffalo Ridge in southwestern MN between 12z-
15z (7am-10am) since temperatures will be a touch cooler at higher
elevations. However, accumulations would be extremely light if any
with limited impacts. As the better moisture axis lines up with the
better forcing along and west of the James River Valley, could see a
few brief pockets of moderate to heavy precipitation develop through
the early afternoon. However, with mild surface temperatures in the
40s to 50s expected, most of this precipitation should fall as rain
with ensemble guidance continuing to show moderate to high confidence
(60%-80%) in at least a quarter inch or more of rainfall west of
an Arlington to Salem to Wagner line.

From the early afternoon to the evening, areas of light rain should
start to transition to light snow as colder air filters in with the
passage of a progressive cold front. While there is still some
lingering uncertainty in the timing of the transition, most CAMs
have our western-most counties starting to mix in some wet
snowflakes between 21z-00z (4pm-7pm) with the transition gradually
working its way southeastwards with the cold front through the
evening hours. With this in mind, overall snowfall accumulations are
expected to be less than an inch with the "highest" accumulations
along the highway-14 corridor and buffalo ridge in southwestern MN.
Lastly, any lingering areas of rain and/or snow should move out the
area by 06z (1am) at the latest as frontal forcing weakens. With
northwesterly surface winds and lingering cold air advection (CAA)
aloft, expect overnight temperatures to dip back into the low to
upper 20s for the night.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Heading into the extended period, quieter
conditions return by Saturday as a surface high quickly moves
in to replace the departing system. As the warmer part of the
ridge moves overhead, expect temperatures to sharply increase
from the low to upper 40s on Saturday to the low to upper 50s
and potentially low 60s by Sunday. Nonetheless, as another cold
front swings through Sunday night, expect the rollercoaster of
temperatures to return with temperatures dropping back into the
low to upper 40s by Monday. Lastly, a strengthening ridge will
continue to progress eastwards into the plains on Monday.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Looking into the new week, quasi-zonal flow
will return by Tuesday as the previously mentioned ridging
pushes eastwards. Long-range guidance does continue to hint at
the potential for small precipitation chances (15%-30%) from
Tuesday night into Wednesday. While there is still limited
agreement among long-range deterministic guidance, ensemble
guidance does shows moderate confidence (40%-60%) in at least
measurable precipitation across the area. From here, warmer
temperatures return from the midweek onwards with with highs
expected to be in the 60s and low 70s through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will transition to mostly MVFR and IFR
conditions mostly due to developing rain and snow showers.
Taking a look at satellite imagery, stratus continues to
gradually spread eastwards this morning with a few pockets of
light drizzle and rain showers. Expect showers and low hanging
stratus to gradually spread eastwards throughout the morning
promoting MVFR ceilings and vsby with a few snow showers mixing
in by this afternoon leading to occasional IFR vsbys. Should
precipitation dissipate this evening as a cold front spreads
southeastwards. Otherwise, light southeasterly winds will become
breezy northwesterly winds behind the cold front to end the TAF
period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05