936
FXUS63 KFSD 070946
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
346 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds chills as cold as -20 degrees will continue through
  mid-morning mainly across southwestern MN.

- Additional chances for light snow are expected this afternoon
  and evening with accumulations of an inch or less expected.

- A parade of waves will move through the region during the
  week ahead, bringing snow risks on both Tuesday and Thursday.
  The most impactful snow system to watch may be on Thursday.

- Confidence is growing that winds Tuesday night into Wednesday
  may break or exceed the 40 mph mark. We`ll need to monitor the
  snow pack and air temps closely to monitor blowing snow
  potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: Another cold day ahead! Taking a look across the
area, any lingering flurries continue to gradually dissipate this
morning as a surface high approaches from the northwest. From here,
a cold start to the morning is expected as a fresh snowpack and
lingering cold air advection (CAA) help most areas start on either
side of zero temperature-wise. Combine this with marginally breezy
northeasterly winds and the setup is primed for even colder winds
through mid-morning with values as low as 20 degrees below zero.
While this will mostly affect southwestern MN, make sure to bundle
up if you have any morning activities. Otherwise, quieter conditions
will persist for the first half of the day as temperatures peak in
the positive single digits to low 20s. Looking aloft, a quick mid-
level wave will closely follow the departing surface high leading to
additional chances for light snow during the afternoon to evening
hours. However, unlike with our previous system; amounts will likely
be on the lighter side with additional accumulations of 1 inch or
less expected. Lastly, as temperatures fall into the single digits
to teens overnight; could see the return of below zero wind chills
in southwestern MN to start the day on Monday.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Looking into the new week, quieter conditions
temporarily return by Monday as northwesterly flow continues aloft.
With the return of southerly surface winds and increasing mid-level
warm air advection (WAA), temperatures will rebound towards the 30s
to low 40s for the day with the warmest conditions across southcentral
SD. Looking aloft, the wave train will continue across the northern
plains as northwesterly flow ushers in multiple waves through Wednesday.
The first clipper wave will dives across parts of northern MN by Monday
afternoon passing just north of us. A second and more robust clipper
wave will dive across portion eastern ND and central MN by Tuesday.
While most of the better dynamics will likely stay north of us, areas
north of I-90 will likely get enough of lift from the base of the
trough to get increased precipitation chances (30%-50%). However,
with temperatures trending more mild with highs in the upper 30s
to low 50s for the day; most of this should fall as rain.

Nonetheless, can`t rule out an eventual transition to light snow on
the backside of the system as temperatures fall overnight. One thing
worth noting is the tightening SPG with the clipper will likely lead
to strong winds with gusts of 40+ mph from Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Depending on how the previous systems have affected our
snowpack, we could see areas of blowing/drifting snow developing
through Wednesday morning. Nonetheless, this will be something to
watch moving forward. From here, a third mid-level wave will swing
through by Wednesday morning along with its associated cold front.
While there won`t likely be much precipitation associated with this
system, the strong blast of arctic air will decrease our temperatures
going forward with highs mainly in the teens to 20s for most areas.
Lastly, while some key details are uncertain; mid-range guidance
is starting to pick up on the potential for additional snow from
Wednesday night into Thursday as another quick clipper swings
through the area. With this in mind, make sure to monitor your
local forecast as this would the period to monitor the most.

THURSDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, its more rinse
and repeat. Periods of snow will continue for most of the day on
Thursday before tapering off. A surface high moves through the area
by Friday to replace the previously mentioned system. By Saturday
and Sunday another approaching clipper brings the potential for more
snow across the area. Lastly, temperatures will hover near to just
below normal with the coldest conditions expected on Friday and
Saturday as highs peaking the single digits to mid teens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Light snow lingers for portions of east central South Dakota and
southwestern Minnesota. Snow will continue to dissipate becoming
very light flurries that may continue through midnight. There has
been brief instances of freezing rain/drizzle as snow is
dissipating. However, confidence of impacts to any one site is low,
and have left mention out of the TAF.

A secondary area of light snow is expected to move from north
central into southeastern South Dakota. This is expected to be
very light with light winds. Due to the this have opted to use a
tempo group for KHON.

Mostly IFR to MVFR ceilings will gradually improve through the
overnight to MVFR to VFR. However, the break will be short as
another fast moving snow shower moves in from the southwest Sunday
afternoon. This will move quickly northeast through the region,
producing light snow through the end of the period. Light northerly
winds will gradually become southeasterly through the day
Sunday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP