155
FXUS63 KFSD 222023
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
223 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Front dropping due south later this afternoon and evening
  will bring brief scattered snow showers with light
  accumulations. Very brief visibility reductions will be
  possible.

- Thursday may be the coldest day in the upcoming 7 days as
  high temperatures fall below normal.

- An extended very quiet and mostly warmer than normal stretch
  of weather is expected into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

THIS AFTERNOON:  Canadian cold front quickly dropping southward
through northern South Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon.
Narrow corridor of convective snow showers ahead of the boundary has
produced very brief visibility drops of 1-2 miles.  As this front
and areas of snow moves south, additional showers may develop
over the warm 30+ degrees surface layer in the James and
Missouri river valleys. Any accumulations are going to be
minimal, but a tenth or two of accumulation is possible.

TONIGHT:  The cold front and snow showers are likely to clear the
CWA by 8-9pm, with considerable stratus lingering behind the
boundary. Biggest forecast question tonight is how long stratus will
linger, as it  has the potential to hold overnight lows above
freezing.  Also, with the colder low-lvl temperatures advecting
southward, lingering flurries may continue into the overnight.

THURSDAY:  Winds turn variable on Thursday as a surface ridge moves
through the region.  Temperatures through will stay on the colder
side of normal, only rising into the upper teens to 20s.  Stratus or
mid-clouds may linger through central South Dakota at times through
the day.

FRIDAY: After brief mid-lvl ridging slides across the area
Thursday night, another moisture starved upper trough enters the
Plains for Friday. Temperatures ahead of the front may rise
closer to the freezing mark, with the passage of the late
afternoon front bringing a risk for flurries to portions of the
Dakotas and western Minnesota by Friday evening.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: Another remarkable stretch of dry weather
and warmer temperatures is expected this weekend and into next
week. Flow across North America will become high amplitude,
with a deep trough over the eastern CONUS and Hudson Bay and
growing ridge over the eastern Pacific and West Coast. The
midsection of the CONUS will reside in a quasi-northwesterly
flow pattern, through broad low-lvl warm advection through the
Plains is likely to keep our temperatures seasonally warm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Mostly VFR conditions continue at mid-day as only very localized
locations have fallen to MVFR ceilings. Flurries persist in a
few areas of the Tri-State area, with slightly greater snow
shower risks moving southward for a few hours later this
afternoon and early evening. Brief visibility reductions will be
possible, but overall potential remains low.

Stratus will linger well into the night, though confidence
remains low on just how low ceilings may lower and how long they
last into Thursday morning. Based on upstream observations,
anticipating MVFR conditions around the 2K FT AGL level into
Thursday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux