591
FXUS63 KFSD 050420
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1020 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds will diminish from west to east this
  evening and become fairly light later tonight. Brief
  reductions in visibility from patchy light snow will also be
  possible.

- Sub-zero wind chills from late this afternoon through
  Thursday morning.

- Much milder temperatures Friday through Sunday, 40s to lower 50s
  Saturday and Sunday.

- A system could bring precipitation early next week but
  confidence is growing on only light amounts. Cooler
  temperatures are expected during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Strong northwest winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph this afternoon
brought some blowing dust and patchy reductions in flurries and
light snow. The better chance for brief reductions in visibility
remain over far eastern SD into southwest MN and northwest IA. These
very strong winds and patchy light snow will come to an end this
evening, with much lighter winds by Thursday morning as cold high
pressure builds south.  This will lead to Thursday morning lows in
the single digits above and below normal with wind chill values
about 10 below to 15 below zero. Some very patchy flurries will be
possible through the night with temperatures in the dendritic zone
through the night.

Thursday will be cold with temperatures warming aloft. Warm
advection aloft deepens through the day into the night, but a fairly
substantial dry layer below this mid level warm advection should
preclude any snow from reaching the ground. Some isolated flakes
will be possible but not very likely. Highs will generally be in
the teens to lower 20s.

Warmer westerly flow will move into the area Friday through Sunday
with highs in the 40s to lower 50s Saturday and Sunday.

A trough of low pressure will move through the area Sunday night
into Tuesday and will bring cooler temperatures. While some
precipitation is possible, it should remain light. Both the GEFS and
EC ensemble are less than 10 percent on liquid precipitation amounts
of a tenth of an inch more more through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will continue this TAF period
mostly due to lingering stratus. Taking a look at satellite
imagery, a few bands of MVFR stratus continue to linger across
portions of southwestern MN and northwestern IA tonight. While
we still expect conditions to gradually clear overnight, expect
the stratus to linger through about 09z before dissipating. From
here, could see a few patchy flurries develop within a layer of
stratus by Thursday afternoon. However, only light accumulations
are expected. Otherwise, breezy northwesterly winds will continue
to gradually decrease throughout the night becoming more light
and variable by Thursday morning with the arrival of a surface
high to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Gumbs