830
FNUS75 KFGZ 300925
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Three Sisters-Fireball unit...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
225 AM MST Mon Sep 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 MST on September 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Near record high temperatures and low humidity will
continue for the next several days. There will be enough mid-level
moisture for some cloud buildups each afternoon, along with some virga
or sprinkles today and again Wednesday bringing the possibility of
gusty and erratic winds. Outside of virga/showers, winds will be light,
shifting from the southeast this morning to west or northwest this
afternoon. Winds look to become east to northeast later tonight into Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly sunny. Slight chance
                    of sprinkles or virga in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........13 to 17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 3-7 mph through around 10 AM, then
                    shifting to the west to northwest 6-10 mph by
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    near any virga or sprinkles.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......646.
Mixing height.......8800 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 13900
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 5 knots shifting to the
                    southwest late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the northwest in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Slight chance of a sprinkle before 7 PM,
                    then becoming mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50 to 55.
Max humidity........40 to 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East to northeast 3 to 7 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......3.
Mixing height.......Less than 100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 5 knots shifting to the northeast
                    overnight.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........11 to 15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East to northeast 6 to 11 mph with gusts near 15 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......673.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 14500
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 knots shifting to the northeast
                    around 5 knots late in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...JOHNDROW
Requested by...Steven VanKirk
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2423238.0/FGZ
.DELDT 09/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steven.vankirk@usda.gov,michael.uebel@usda.gov