096
FNUS75 KFGZ 020208
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Conklin 1 Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
708 PM MST Tue Jul 1 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MST on July 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon, with the greatest coverage and intensity expected on
Wednesday. For Wednesday, storms look to initially develop over
the higher terrain around the fire by around 11 AM MST, and then
move off the terrain and around the fire area between 1 PM and 4
PM MST. Some lingering showers will be possible into the early
evening, however this activity should be minimal. On Thursday,
more isolated storms are expected, and most likely to be in the
area between 1 PM and 5 PM MST. Brief heavy downpours and gusty
outflow winds of 30-40 mph will be the primary hazards with these
storms each day.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....69 to 71 degrees.
Min humidity........45 to 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5-10 mph shifting to the
                    west in the afternoon. Gusts up 15-20 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max Vent Rate.......Marginal.
Clearing Index......161.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 0 knots shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....45 to 47 degrees.
Max humidity........95 to 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light terrain-driven winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......2.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 5 knots shifting to the northwest
                    in the late evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the west after 3 am.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the late morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....68 to 71 degrees.
Min humidity........42 to 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5-10 mph. Gusts 15-20 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1542.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15
                    knots late in the afternoon.

A weather forecast table for your SPOT location is linked.
The information provided by this site is for planning purposes only
and is not intended to substitute information provided by an official
National Weather Service SPOT forecast.
https://www.weather.gov/dlh/fwd?lat=33.8409&lon=-109.4121&clat=33.8409&clon=-109.4121

$$
Forecaster...HUMPHREYS
Requested by...Grace Dirmeyer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517092.0/FGZ
.DELDT 07/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL grace.dirmeyer@usda.gov