594
FNUS75 KFGZ 201446
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Deer Fire...USFS Tonto NF
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
746 AM MST Sat Jul 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MST on July 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Hot temperatures will persist through the weekend
and into next week. Expect daily afternoon/evening chances for
showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest potential being
between 11 AM MST - 7 PM MST. The primary hazards associated with
storm development will be gusty/erratic winds, heavy rain, small hail,
and new lightning starts. Outside of gusty outflow winds, look for west
to southwest winds 5-10 mph each day, becoming light overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly sunny. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms through the day. Haze
                    and areas of smoke in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......45-55 percent.
Max temperature.....85-90 degrees.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5-10 mph becoming variable after
                    5 PM MST. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Northwest 0 to 5 knots shifting to the
                    northeast around 5 knots late in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. Haze
                    and areas of smoke in the evening. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms through the night.
Chance of pcpn......30-40 percent.
Min temperature.....70-75 degrees.
Max humidity........55-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5-10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 0 knots shifting to the
                    southeast in the late evening and overnight,
                    then shifting to the west after 3 am.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly sunny. Showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms through the
                    day. Haze and areas of smoke in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......55-70 percent.
Max temperature.....80-90 degrees.
Min humidity........30-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5-10 mph becoming more northerly in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 knots.

$$
Forecaster...KONIECZNY
Requested by...Danon Johnson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418426.4/FGZ
.DELDT 07/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL danon.johnson@usda.gov