575
FXUS65 KFGZ 092327
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
427 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer weather with generally light winds is
expected to continue across the region through the next week. A weak
trough on Tuesday will bring increasing winds with a strong trough
expected towards the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunday and Monday will remain dry with light winds
continuing across the region. Temperatures will warm gradually each
day and will be near the seasonal averages for November.

A weak trough will approach the region from the west, arriving
around Tuesday. The main energy stays off to the north as the trough
is progressive and doesn`t really dig southward. A slight tightening
of the pressure gradient as it crosses will bring a slight increase
and a westerly shift to the winds. Moisture is very limited with
this trough so not anticipating any shower activity though the added
moisture to the atmosphere may allow for a few extra clouds to
develop.

Midweek looks to be largely uneventful with temperatures remaining
near the seasonal averages and once again we will see mainly light
winds across the region.

Another trough may approach the region from the west towards the end
of the week. Timing differences at this juncture lend to lower
confidence but this stronger trough looks to move in sometime on
Friday with impacts carrying through the weekend. Increasing winds
are expected. One thing to watch will be just how much moisture this
system is able to tap into. Some of the guidance shows this low
eventually cutting off and lingering over the area. With it having
reach into the Pacific and Gulf of California, could bring us our
next round of rain and snow. Too early to really have much
confidence in the details and what exactly will happen but enough is
out there that we will need to watch how this develops over the
coming week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 10/00Z through Monday 11/00Z...VFR conditions and
light winds.

OUTLOOK...Monday 11/00Z through Wednesday 13/00Z...VFR conditions
and generally light winds. Daytime winds increase to SW at 10-20kts
on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Dry and warmer. Light/variable
winds on Sunday, becoming south to southwest at 5-15 mph Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Look for dry conditions with little
change in high and low temperatures. Expect westerly winds at 10-25
mph on Tuesday, diminishing to light easterly on Wednesday and then
southerly on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

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