213
FXUS65 KFGZ 081725
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1025 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Drier and cold weather continues through Thursday,
with gusty northeast winds. Winds decrease with a slight warming
trend in store through Saturday. Then, another cool down Sunday
into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Isolated snow showers continue to diminish this morning
across portions of northern Arizona with many locations remaining
dry, but cold. Much of the areas forecast to receive some snow
did in fact get it with as much as 7 inches measured just
northwest of the San Francisco Peaks. The Flagstaff Airport picked
up 0.1 inches of snow overnight with at least an inch near Doney
Park. Other surrounding locations saw a trace/dusting with nothing
here at the office in Bellemont. Blustery northeast winds will
persist through this afternoon, relaxing a bit by nightfall.
Another dry and cold system drops down directly from the north on
Thursday, resulting in another round of gusty north-northeast
winds, 30-40 mph. Besides for cleaning up the POPs a bit for this
morning to match current radar, the forecast remains on track with
no other changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /438 AM MST/...The center of low pressure is over
the northern Gulf of California this morning. Wrap-around showers
continue from around Flagstaff, south of I-40, and to the the New
Mexico border. Gusty northeast-east winds up to 40 MPH continue
across some of the areas south of the Mogollon Rim. The strongest
wind gusts have been recorded at 10,000 to 11,500 feet (66 MPH)
just north of Flagstaff and at the Stanton RAWS in southern
Yavapai County.

The center of the low will continue to move south through Thursday
morning as another area of low pressure develops over the Rockie
Mountains and moves south. This will bring a decrease of showers
over northern Arizona today into tonight. However, the northeast
winds will continue.

On Thursday...The next dives south across New Mexico. This track
will keep most of the showers east of Arizona with chilly daytime
temperatures and gusty north to northeast winds.  The gusty winds
will be located area wide during the day Thursday but then become
focused from the Mogollon Rim southward Thursday night. Many
locations will see gusts in excess of 35 mph with the pattern
setting up such that the San Francisco Peaks could see gusts in
excess of 60 mph Thursday night into Friday.

From Friday onward...A dry northwesterly to northerly flow aloft
will take over. Temperatures will warm to near normal on Saturday
before yet another dry disturbance drops in from the north to
deliver colder temperature on Sunday and for the start of next
week. Locally breezy northwest to northeast winds will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...MVFR
conditions in isolated -SHSN near a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line through
20Z. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions. Winds northeast at 15-25
kts through 00Z then subsiding to 5-10 kts overnight. Locally
gusty winds up to 20 kts downwind of the terrain overnight. North
winds increasing again area wide at 10-20 kts after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/18Z through Saturday 11/18Z...Isolated -SHSN
and MVFR conditions southeast of KSOW Thursday afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast. Winds north at 10-20 kts
with gusts to 25-35 kts on Thursday, becoming northwest to
northeast at 5-10 kts on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mainly dry conditions. Winds
northeast 15-25 mph, gradually subsiding overnight, then becoming
north 15-25 mph on Thursday. Locally gusty winds remain downwind of
the terrain overnight.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions and near-normal temperatures.
Northwest through northeast winds 5-15 mph each day. Locally gusty
winds downwind of the terrain overnight.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/MAS
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff