321
FXUS65 KFGZ 050401
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
901 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mild and mostly dry weather continues through the
rest of the week. A weak upper low will bring chances for rain and
snow showers to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
through Friday or Saturday. Winds will be light and easterly each
day.

&&

.UPDATE...This afternoon`s isolated convection has diminished this
evening with leftover debris clouds mainly near Prescott and
across northern Gila County and southern portions of Navajo and
Apache counties. Expect this cloud cover to clear throughout the
night. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be similar to
last night`s with no changes needed from the forecast made this
afternoon. Winds tonight will generally be light and terrain
driven with elevated northeast drainage winds anticipated at the
Sedona Airport, 15-25 mph.

Plan on similar conditions for Thursday with a weak, upper-level
low pressure system hovering over south-central Arizona. Another
round of isolated rain and high elevation snow/pellet showers is
forecast for Thursday afternoon, extending from the eastern
Mogollon Rim to the White Mountains. The current forecast remains
on track with no significant changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /359 PM MST/...Mid-level convection has broken out
today, along and south of our higher terrain in central and east-
central Arizona. A few lightning strikes have also been noted, the
convective potential is a bit more vigorous than previously
thought, nothing crazy. A few areas have likely seen the ground
get decently wet, along with some graupel, as a result. However,
as mentioned this morning, impacts will be near-zero.

This pattern will continue through Friday or Saturday. Much of the
area will see light easterly winds, above normal temperatures and
generally clear skies each day. But, high-based convection will also
continue until the block weakens on Friday or Saturday. This is when
drier, northerly flow replaces the somewhat unstable cool air aloft
we are seeing now.

The block then fully breaks, albeit briefly, early next week. This
allows for a dry cold front to clip the area. DESI/NBM clusters do
not indicate much support for this wave to dig southwest, more of a
glancing blow to the east, before the west coast ridge reestablishes
for the rest of next week. Cooler air will be noticeable Monday and
Tuesday, along with increased westerly winds Sunday and increased
northerly winds Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 05/00Z through Friday 06/00Z...VFR conditions
persist through the period with variable cloud cover. Isolated -SHRA
from KPAN to KJTC taper after 01Z. Expect another round of
isolated -SHRA/-SHSN from KPAN to KJTC after 18Z. Light and
variable winds overnight, becoming east 5-10 kts, after 17Z.
Anticipate enhanced northeast winds, 15-25 kts, overnight at KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Friday 06/00Z through Sunday 08/00Z...VFR conditions
continue into the weekend with slight chances for -SHRA/-SHSN in
the White Mountains each afternoon. Expect north-northeast winds,
10-15 kts, on Friday followed by light and variable winds on
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Mild temperatures with mostly
dry conditions persist each day. Slight chances for showers are
forecast mainly from Payson eastward into the White Mountains on
Thursday, confined to the White Mountains on Friday. Expect east to
northeast winds, 5 to 15 mph, each afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Conditions remain dry with mild daytime
temperatures for this weekend. Expect light northeasterly winds on
Saturday, followed by breezier west-southwest winds, 10 to 20 mph,
on Sunday. A dry cold front will then pass through from the north on
Monday, resulting in elevated north winds and colder temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Peterson
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff