084
FXUS65 KFGZ 102352
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
452 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Sub-tropical moisture will lead to widespread showers
and thunderstorms through Saturday night. Flash flooding will be
possible as a result of the heavy rainfall. Unsettled conditions
continue into the first part of next week, but coverage decreases
substantially and becomes more of an isolated to scattered shower
and thunderstorm pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TS Priscilla is now fully engaged with Arizona, with
deep moisture in place and an impressive plume set to impact the
state into tonight. So far, a persistent convective element on the
eastern side (the warm side) of the TS Priscilla plume has brought
impressive rainfall totals to areas just east of the I-17 corridor.
As large scale ascent begins tonight, ahead of a frontal passage
Saturday, we should see banding increasing in areal coverage. The
western and northern zones, eventually the eastern zones, should all
catch up. In the middle though, the sweet spot east of the I-17
corridor, this is where this highest overall totals will occur.

As the front/trough axis pushes the sub-tropical plume east and
southeast Saturday, the atmosphere destabilizes as the upper levels
dry out. There is about a 6-12 hour window, post-frontal, that has
soundings indicative of severe weather. This will run from Saturday
afternoon in the Flagstaff area, to past Midnight MST in our far
eastern CWA.

Finally, the area gets temporarily swept out, except for maybe the
White Mountains. By Sunday. additional troughing off the west coast
will rebound the threat of showers going into early next week, but
amounts will not come close to this. Then, cool and blustery to end
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 11/00Z through Sunday 12/00Z...A persistent
plume of sub-tropical moisture will continue to produce areas of
-SHRA and pockets of +SHRA/TSRA through the period. Expect
MVFR/IFR and even small areas of LIFR with mountain obscuration in
the precipitation areas. Outside of precipitation, mainly VFR
with CIGS from 5-10kft AGL. Surface winds will remain light and
variable through 18Z, becoming south-southwest 15-25 kts
thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 12/00Z through Tuesday 14/00Z...Continued areas
of -SHRA and pockets of +SHRA/TSRA or +TSRA continue through 08Z-12Z
Sunday, before slowly becoming mainly VFR for the remainder of the
period. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA still forecast
Sunday/Monday afternoons. Surface winds south-southwest 10-20 kts,
mainly in the daytime hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Widespread wetting rains
through Saturday night, with the highest accumulations expected in
eastern Yavapai and Coconino counties, northern Navajo and Apache
counties and northern Gila County. A Flood Watch will be in effect
for most of northern Arizona through the period. Isolated strong
thunderstorms also possible, especially Saturday afternoon and
evening.  Winds south through southwest 10-20 mph each day. Gusty
and erratic winds can be expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday...Storm coverage becomes more isolated to
scattered during this period. Daytime winds south through southwest
10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds can be
expected near showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch through Saturday evening for AZZ004>010-012-013-015-
016-018-037>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...LaGuardia/Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff