309
FXUS65 KFGZ 162320
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler weather returns this weekend with strong
southwest winds. Slight chances for precipitation on late Saturday
through Monday. Warmer and drier conditions will return for
Tuesday through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Saturday through Sunday...A trough will drop down
through the Great Basin, bringing some cooler air and stronger winds
to the region. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than they
were the past couple of days but will still feel mild. The colder
air will arrive on Sunday, with highs 10-15 degrees below average.

Did you miss the winds? We didn`t think so but here they come
anyway. The pressure gradient starts to tighten up across our
western areas on Saturday morning, with increasing southwest winds
through the day. Winds will be around 15-30 mph with gusts 35-45
mph. Additionally, moisture is lagging behind the trough and we will
remain dry with RH values in the single digits to teens. The fuels
across the northern and western parts of the state are in slightly
better shape than eastern areas. Model guidance has slowed down
slightly over the past couple of runs and it looks like any showers
will arrive late Saturday into Sunday into our northwestern areas.
With a slightly weaker and less deep trough, the moisture will not
extend quite as far south as we had anticipated (and hoped for)
resulting in the best precipitation chances remaining north of I-40
and mainly closer to the AZ/UT border. The colder air pushing in
early Sunday may allow for some snow showers or a mix of rain and
snow showers across the Kaibab Plateau. Instability looks pretty
marginal so only isolated thunder is expected on Sunday. Taking into
account all of this information, we have issued a Wind Advisory for
portions of Coconino and Yavapai counties as well as a Red Flag
Warning for the Little Colorado River Valley and the White
Mountains.

Sunday night through Monday...The first trough exits the region on
Sunday as the secondary trough starts to push down from the north.
This second trough will push into the area Sunday night and exit by
Monday evening. This system also appears to be weaker than it has
the past couple of model runs and the moisture is looking to be
lacking more than it did previously. Best chances for showers will
be along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with a few snow showers
possible above 7000 feet. Again, instability is marginal but some
isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through Monday
afternoon. While some areas will benefit from the increase in
moisture, not all areas will be so lucky. Portions of the Little
Colorado River Valley will remain pretty dry. The winds will remain
gusty on Sunday staying our of the southwest around 15-25 mph with
gusts 35-45 mph. Winds will drop off on Monday but will remain gusty
across eastern portions of the Little Colorado River Valley. With
the continued strong winds and dry conditions, we will again see
near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. With a little bit
more uncertainty to just how much the RH will increase on Sunday, we
have have left the Fire Weather Watch in place.

Tuesday and beyond...As the second trough exits the region late
Monday, we should see a rather quick recovery across the state.
Temperatures will warm to near average by midweek and then 5-15
degrees above average for the second half of the week. Winds are
expected to become lighter through the week with typical afternoon
breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 17/00Z through Sunday 18/00Z...VFR
conditions are forecast, though smoke could reduce visibility
locally near and downwind of Greer (in eastern Arizona) and Blind
fire (southeast of KLFG). Winds generally light and variable
overnight, then increase after 16Z becoming southwest at 10-20
kts gusting to 30-35 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 18/00Z through Tuesday 20/00Z...VFR conditions
prevailing, though smoke could reduce visibility near and downwind
of wildfires. Isolated to scattered -SHRA and a slight chance of
-TSRA after 06Z Sunday mainly north of I-40. Saturday night will
 see local southwest winds at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts downwind
 of terrain features. Winds on Sunday expand in coverage
 remaining southwest at 10-20 kts with gusts to 30-35 kts.
 Northwest winds 10-20 kts developing after 16Z Monday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Dry conditions will
continue through Saturday with minimum RH values mostly below 15%.
Southwest to west afternoon winds 10 to 20 mph today. Southwest
winds increase Saturday to 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect on Saturday for the Little Colorado River
Valley and White Mountains. Winds are expected to be stronger on
Sunday with increasing humidity and chances for showers moving from
west to east. The LCR in Apache County may still see very low RH and
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect there for Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Windy, cooler, and better chances for
showers on Monday. West-northwest 10-20 mph on Monday. Much warmer,
less wind, and drier on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 11 PM MST /midnight
MDT/ Saturday for AZZ004-006>008-015.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM
MDT/ Saturday for AZZ112>114-117-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff