588
FXUS65 KFGZ 060944
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
244 AM MST Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected this week. There will be a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly over the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains. Temperatures will peak from Tuesday through
Thursday, with very hot conditions at the lower elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure stretching from northern Mexico into
New Mexico will slowly shift northwestward into Arizona over the
next several days. A weak return of moisture allowed for a few
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon in the White
Mountains and a stray shower as far west as Heber. This weak
moisture push will bring slight chances for a few showers/storms
farther west today into early next week, including the Flagstaff
area and northern Yavapai County. This is still looking like a
low-grade monsoon pattern at best, with no real significant
moisture push showing up over the next 7 days. Also, much of the
activity will be high-based, producing gusty/erratic winds and
generally light rainfall amounts. The main story over the coming
week is going to be the building heat as the high pressure system
parks over Arizona and strengthens. Ensemble mean forecasts of
500 mb heights are still 596-599dam from Tuesday through at least
Thursday and possibly beyond. This translates to highs in the low
90s for the mountains to around 100F for Prescott/Payson/ Winslow,
and near 110F for the Verde Valley. The lowest elevations of the
Grand Canyon are forecast to reach 110-115F. Extreme Heat Watches
have been issued for the Grand Canyon below 4000 feet from Tuesday
through Thursday, and for Yavapai and Gila counties below 4000
feet for Wednesday when it looks like the heat peaks. Thursday
into the weekend, ensemble means show the strong ridge suppressed
slightly southward, which would cut off our meager moisture flow
even more. Storm chances drop to less than 10% over the western
parts of the Mogollon Rim including Flagstaff, as well as Yavapai
County.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 06/06Z through Monday 07/06Z...VFR conditions
expected, slight chance of thunderstorms from 18Z to 03Z over
higher terrain. Winds light and variable or terrain driven
overnight, SW 5-10kts, gusts to 20kts during the day, light and
variable or terrain driven Sunday night into Monday morning.
Winds could be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Monday 07/06Z through Wednesday 09/06Z...VFR conditions
expected, slight chance of thunderstorms over higher terrain from
18Z to 03Z each day. Winds SW-W 10kts, gusts 20-25kts during the
day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Winds could
be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...A warming trend will
continue, along with mostly dry conditions. Minimum afternoon RH
values 10-20%. 20-40% chance of high-based showers/thunderstorms
each afternoon, primarily across the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Afternoon west-southwest wind 10-20 mph. Gusty/erratic
winds possible near showers/storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and mostly dry conditions will
continue. 15-35% chance of showers/thunderstorms near the White
Mountains each afternoon. Minimum RH values 8-20%. West-northwest
winds 5-15 mph on Tuesday, becoming more westerly 10-20 mph on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening
for AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for AZZ018-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff