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FXUS65 KFGZ 241106
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
406 AM MST Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Arizona remains under an active pattern where
showers/thunderstorms are expected each day through the forecast
period. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent
lightning, small hail, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of
precipitation chances, look for below normal temperatures each
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered over the Four
Corners, leaving northern Arizona to see continuous days of
precipitation. Confidence for Flash Flooding will remain greatest
across the Kaibab Plateau, Marble Canyon, and Grand Canyon
National Park, due to the recent burn scars (the Dragon Bravo and
White Sage). Although this is the only location in the CWA where a
Flood Watch is in effect (and this is valid through Monday
evening...for now), localized flooding due to heavy rainfall will
be possible anywhere across central/northern Arizona. Not only
will heavy rain be a concern over the next few days, storms will
be capable of producing small hail, frequent lightning, and
gusty/erratic winds. Storm development usually picks up around
1100 AM MST, so if you are enjoying outdoor activities, keep an
eye on the weather during the afternoon. Remember: When Thunder
Roars, Go Indoors!

Although majority of the stronger storms are seen throughout the
afternoon due to daytime heating, this particular large scale
pattern is conducive to isolated showers and even a few storms
lingering into the overnight hours. Hi-res guidance suggests
overnight activity each night through at least the middle of the
week, so don`t be surprised if you wake up to the smell of rain!

The synoptic pattern will shift throughout the week, but we`ll
still remain under an active monsoon pattern. Essentially, the
area of high pressure that has been centered over the Four Corners
will open up by mid-week. This will still leave a ridge over much
of the Southwest and keep a persistent flow of moisture funneling
into Arizona. Things could begin to dissipate on Thursday, where
a trough looks to move in from the West Coast and push monsoon
moisture eastward. Confidence isn`t 100% there at the moment, but
we`ll likely see at least a downward trend in chances for
showers/storms towards the end of the week. This is reflected in
both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble members for PWATs, where values
look to dip by a few tenths Thursday and Friday. Until then, enjoy
the much needed rain!

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 24/12Z through Monday 25/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected through the period, outside of brief MVFR
conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Expect chances for showers/storms
between 18Z-03Z, with -SHRA possibly continuing overnight.
Outside of gusty/erratic winds, look for west-southwest winds 5-15
mph.

OUTLOOK...Monday 25/12Z through Wednesday 27/12Z...VFR conditions
will continue outside of MVFR ceilings/visibilities in heavier
SHRA/TSRA. Look for daily chances for widespread showers/storms
primarily between 18Z-03Z, but light showers could continue
overnight. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storms, but look for
south through west winds 5-15 mph otherwise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday through Monday...Daytime highs will gradually
cool over the next several days as daily precipitation chances
continue. Scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms expected
each afternoon, becoming isolated in the evening/overnight periods.
Minimum RH values between 20-40% each afternoon, with overnight
recoveries generally between 60-90%. Outside of gusty/erratic
outflow driven winds, look for mostly west winds 5-15 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will remain below normal
through the end of the week, and daily chances for showers/storms
will persist too. Widespread activity expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, becoming more isolated to scattered on Thursday. Minimum
RH values will generally be between 25-50%, and overnight recoveries
between 60-90%. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look
for mostly south through west winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for AZZ004>006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff