368
FXUS65 KFGZ 302043
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
143 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will move across northern Arizona
this afternoon into tonight. Gusty winds and cooler temperatures
are in store for most, with chances for rain and snow showers
limited to the Four Corners region. Cool and dry weather will move
in on Tuesday before unsettled weather returns later on Wednesday
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A northwest flow aloft will become established over
the western states. A series of embedded shortwave troughs will
brush northern Arizona over the coming week delivering cooler
temperatures and periodic chances for rain/snow showers.

This afternoon through Monday...The first shortwave and
associated cold front will dive from north to south across Arizona
this afternoon into Monday. This will be a fast moving system with
the best dynamics and moisture over the northeast corner of Arizona,
primarily the Four Corners and Chuska Mountains. The snow level
will dip to around 6000 feet overnight with accumulating snow of
2-4 inches in the Chuska Mountains above 6500 feet. Elsewhere and
overall from the Mogollon Rim northward, we`re looking at best a
dusting to perhaps locally 1 inch of snow accumulation. For the
remainder of the afternoon expect gusty winds, generally southwest
at 15 to 25 mph but gusting in spots to around 40 mph from the
Mogollon Rim northward, diminishing during the evening. Monday
will see winds shift to north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph behind
the cold front. High temperatures cool another 1 to 5 degrees on
Monday.

On Tuesday...Mostly sunny with temperatures near average under
weak high pressure. Winds look to be south to southwest at 5 to
15 mph. Generally a nice day.

For Wednesday and Thursday...The models have come more into line
with a faster moving north to south diving shortwave trough. The
chances for a closed-low moving further west and south of Arizona
have diminished. We are now looking at good chances for showers
late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with accumulating snow
down to around 5000-6000 feet. There will be the potential for a
general 1-3 inches of snow accumulation with higher values for the
highest mountain peaks. The shortwave will exit Arizona and
showers end Thursday night. Otherwise, temperatures falling to at
or below seasonal averages. Winds may turn gusty from the west to
southwest on Wednesday but then lighter from a more northwest to
north direction the remainder of the week.

From Friday onward...A dry northwest flow will remain in place.
Look for near to below average temperatures with periods of clouds
and gusty winds associated with weak passing shortwave troughs.
There will be a slight chance of snow showers at times near the
Arizona/Utah border.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 30/18Z through Monday 01/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. A weak weather system will bring some rain and high
elevation snow showers to northeast Arizona late this afternoon
through Monday morning. Brief MVFR may be possible with these
showers. Winds SW 10-25kts, gusts 30-35kts this afternoon, light
and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/18Z through Wednesday 03/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected until Wednesday afternoon when the next
storm system moves in. Winds N 10kts Monday, S-SW 5-10kts
Tuesday, SW-W 10-15kts Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...A few rain and high
elevation snow showers linger over northeastern Arizona before noon.
Cool and dry Monday afternoon onwards. Winds N-NE 10-15 mph on
Monday, SW 10-15 mph Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Another weather system brings a 20-50% of
rain and high elevation snow showers from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night. Things dry back out Friday onwards. Winds SW
10-15 mph Wednesday, switching to the N-NE 5-10 mph on Thursday, W-
NW 5-10 mph Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff