275
FXUS65 KFGZ 112315
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 PM MST Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue into early next
week. Moisture will be sparse, with only isolated activity through
Sunday, primarily over the eastern portions of Arizona. A gradual
uptick in moisture may develop during the course of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An overnight surge from the Gulf of California
brought much higher dew points to Arizona this morning, especially
over the lower deserts and south of the Mogollon Rim. This moisture
was on the shallow side and is now starting to mix out over our CWA,
especially at the higher elevations. Even with added boundary layer
moisture, the warm mid-levels continue to keep us capped.

The mid-level high is southwest of Arizona, which is not a good
location for moisture advection. We expect this hot and dry pattern
to continue, with minimal intrusions of moisture and near zero
chances for precipitation.

By next week, the high slowly starts to move north and eventually
eastward. This will cause for some easterly and northeasterly flow
to develop, potentially allowing for outflows to push moisture back
into the state. Later in the week, possibly an actual "monsoonal"
mid-level  high placement and an easterly wave may develop, possibly
bringing an uptick in activity.

This overall pattern can be hard to break, so keep in mind, as each
day goes by, fuels are drier and drier. Fire danger will become a
real concern in a short period of time without rainfall, be careful
out there.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 12/00Z through Sunday 13/00Z...VFR expected.
ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line after 18Z. W-SW
winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts through 03Z, then light and
variable overnight. W-SW winds 5-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts after
17Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 13/00Z through Tuesday 15/00Z...VFR expected.
ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line on Sunday and
Monday. W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts each day with light
and variable winds during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry.
Breezy southwest through west winds 10-20 mph this afternoon, then
west through northwest 10-15 mph Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Minimum RH of 5-10% is forecast north of the Mogollon Rim, 10-20%
along and south of the Rim each day. Low chances (10-30%) for
showers and thunderstorms are forecast along the higher terrain from
Flagstaff south and east Saturday and Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot temperatures with slowly increasing
moisture and thunderstorm chances. The best chances for showers and
thunderstorms (20-40%) will be over the higher terrain along and
south of the I-40 corridor. Minimum RH values will be between 10-20%
each day with winds out of the west at 5-15 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds can be expected near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff