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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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466 FXUS65 KFGZ 010914 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 214 AM MST Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain through Wednesday, before drier and warmer conditions set in for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...through this morning...An area of showers and thunderstorms stretches from Wickenburg to Winslow to Chinle this morning. This area should gradually shift east and weaken through the remainder of the overnight. Isolated embedded heavy downpours will be possible. This afternoon through tonight...High pressure over the central US continues to draw moisture northward into Arizona. As a result, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop across much of the region by the afternoon. Debris cloud from overnight convection may delay initiation this afternoon, especially over the eastern portions of Arizona where clouds hang on a bit longer this morning. Thus, the greatest instability looks to be concentrated south of I-40 for the first part of the afternoon, where 00Z HREF guidance has around 1000 J/Kg of surface-based CAPE forecast. As clouds break and destabilization occurs, insatiability should expand northward. Flash flooding looks to be the primary threat with PWAT values around a inch for much of northern Arizona, to upwards of 1.4 inches across central Arizona. A few stronger storms may develop, although weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Tuesday and Wednesday...A trough sweeping through the Great Basin will gradually shift moisture eastward as the high begins to retreat. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms gradually decreases through the middle of the week. Tuesday storms will mainly be focused over the eastern-half of the state, with the activity then shifting to mainly the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains by Wednesday. Localized flash flooding and a few stronger storms will continue to be possible. Thursday through Sunday...As the trough pushes east, drier air is advected into Arizona with any remaining moisture limited to the southern portions of the state. At the same time, heights begin to rise as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Western US. Much warmer temperatures follow suit, with afternoon temperatures around 5-10F above normal by Thursday and Friday. Excessive Heat headlines may need to be considered as we get closer. Moisture looks to remain at bay through at least the weekend, with only a slight chance of some isolated showers and storms around the White Mountains. Beyond the weekend, ensemble guidance largely supports a drier pattern to start of next week, however solutions begin to diverge among the individual ensemble members so confidence in the return of deeper remains low at this point. && .AVIATION...Monday 01/06Z through Tuesday 02/06Z...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the night with heavier showers along and near a KPRC-KSEZ-KFLG line until 15Z before mostly ending. Isolated showers and storms redeveloping area wide midday Monday, then diminishing during the evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds and MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity of any storms. Otherwise, south to southwest winds at 10-20 kts Monday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 02/06Z through Thursday 04/06Z...The active pattern continues with showers and storms expected each day, tapering off each night. Daytime west-northwest winds at 10-20 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms will continue, most active on Monday, with coverage decreasing on Tuesday and shifting a bit southeast. Outside of thunderstorms and outflow activity, expect daytime southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph. Wednesday through Friday...Coverage of showers and thunderstorms retreats to east-central Arizona Wednesday, with dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Expect a pronounced warming trend during this period, especially late in the week. Winds generally light, but taking on more of a northwesterly direction by Thursday and Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff