908
FXUS65 KFGZ 150841
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
141 AM MST Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers across northwestern Arizona through
this morning, then dry conditions prevail through the rest of the
week. Cooler temperatures are expected through Friday, with a
slight warmup over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The closed low is located over the Great Basin
early this morning, and will continue to move to the east through
the day today. The gradient has relaxed enough that we shouldn`t see
winds quite as strong as we did on Tuesday but expect it to still be
a little breezy through this afternoon. There is still a little bit
of moisture remaining across northwestern Arizona and the forcing
from the approaching low continues to keep some showers going,
mainly across far western Coconino county. With much cooler air
filtering into the region, we can`t rule out a few snowflakes
falling over the Kaibab Plateau through this morning but no
accumulations are expected. Showers should finally come to an end
by midday.

By late tonight, the low should be over Utah and the trough will be
making its way through the region. By early Thursday morning, the
low will be well off to our north but the trough may slow a bit as
it moves through and doesn`t exit the area until Thursday afternoon.
The flow turns more to the west-northwest for Thursday and will keep
us nice and dry. A secondary trough pushes down late on Thursday and
this trough will usher in and reinforce the colder air and this will
be the start of our cold nights, especially across the higher
terrain. The second trough should move through the region pretty
quickly on Friday but that northwesterly flow will linger into early
Saturday. Daytime highs will be 5-15 degrees below average through
Friday but as we start to see a little ridging occur over the
weekend, we should be able to bounce back and have temperatures
closer to average.

The start of next week could be interesting as some long term models
are hinting at another trough interacting with a Pacific low. Still
too far out to have much confidence on the outcome but it is
something to watch in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 15/06Z through Thursday 16/06Z...Expect
mainly VFR conditions. Some MVFR CIGS may form over higher terrain
from terminal KFLG northward overnight, due to a cold front moving
through the area. SCT -SHRA possible over the Kaibab Plateau from
about 08Z-18Z Wednesday. Sfc winds S-SSW5-15G20kts overnight, with
some higher gusts lee of terrain features. Sfc winds AFT 18Z
Wednesday S-SW10-20g25kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/06Z through Saturday 18/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds are not expected to impact flight operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mainly dry and seasonably cool
temperatures, outside of a slight chance for showers near the Kaibab
Plateau through this afternoon. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph
today, becoming northwest through northeast 5-10 mph on Thursday.
Minimum afternoon RH around 30-50%, falling to 20-30% on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradual warming. Winds
north/northeast 5-10 mph Friday and Saturday, becoming south/southwest
on Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 20-30%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff