001
FXUS65 KFGZ 281049
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
349 AM MST Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and storms will stick around today
and Friday, before moisture becomes very limited over the weekend.
There`s potential for more activity to return next week, as the
area of high pressure builds over the Southwest again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Outside of some cloud cover and maybe a few
sprinkles, the weather is much quieter tonight. Between the
lingering clouds and dew points mostly in the 40s and 50s across
our CWA, overnight lows are still in the 50s and 60s across much
of the High Country. Afternoon highs look to rebound into the 70s
and 80s for much of the area, but a few locations at lower
elevations could still reach upper 90s if not triple digits.
Although our monsoon pattern has faded, there is moisture being
pushed up from Tropical Storm Juliette. This could bring
additional showers across western Yavapai and Coconino counties
today through Friday morning. It`s still uncertain how deep the
layer of moisture will be, but we can`t rule out the possibility
of convection across higher terrain either. Regardless, we are in
a declining moisture pattern, where we will see much less activity
through the weekend compared to what we`ve seen the last several
days. And any precipitation we do see over the weekend, will be
focused across the White Mountains and eastern Rim.

The decrease in moisture across northern Arizona over the next few
days is due to a trough moving inland from the Coast of
California, and flattening the ridge that has been over the
Southwest the last several days. Once the trough reaches the
Midwest, there will be room for the area of high pressure to build
up once again. This pattern should allow for additional moisture
to flow into Arizona. The NBM has picked up on this trend, but our
PoPs are still generally between 35-55%, and focused along and
south of a Fredonia-St. Johns line. There`s still plenty of time
to hash out the details, so check back later for more information.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 28/12Z through Friday 29/12Z...VFR conditions
expected through the period. -SHRA possible along and west of a
KSEZ-KPGA line between 18Z-12Z. Gusty/erratic winds possible near
showers/storms. Otherwise, look for winds 5-15 kts varying in
direction.

OUTLOOK...Friday 29/12Z through Sunday 31/12Z...VFR conditions
expected through the period, but brief MVFR conditions possible in
heavier SHRA/TSRA. Look for scattered showers Friday afternoon,
becoming limited to the White Mountains and eastern Rim Saturday
and Sunday. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storm development.
Otherwise look for winds 5-15 kts varying in direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Isolated to scattered showers
will stick around each afternoon, with minimum RH values between 20-
40%. Look for winds 5-15 mph varying in direction on Thursday,
becoming more westerly on Friday. Gusty/erratic winds possible near
showers/storms.

Saturday through Monday...Near normal to above normal temperatures
expected through the weekend and into next week. Mostly dry
conditions forecast for the weekend, outside of limited showers
across the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim. Scattered
chances for showers/storms returns on Monday, primarily along and
south of I-40. Light and variable winds 5-15 mph expected each day,
outside of possible gusty/erratic winds near showers/storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff