548
FXUS65 KFGZ 120933
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
233 AM MST Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled conditions continue into the first part of the
week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
Coverage will decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday before dry air wins
out. Cooler temperatures are expected for the second half of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough over the Great Basin is pushing a cold
front down through Arizona early this morning. Some showers and
thunderstorms are associated with the boundary and will continue to
push to the east/southeast today. Additionally, we can see the
remnants from Tropical Storm Raymond pushing northward into Mexico
from the southern tip of Baja California. Flow out ahead of this
system is dragging more subtropical moisture up towards Arizona and
will be something to keep an eye on over the next couple of days.

First up, the trough and its frontal boundary. While we don`t have
an abundance of lingering instability, the boundary has enough
forcing to allow for convection to continue as it moves eastward.
These storms will be capable of brief heavy rainfall and gusty
winds. Flow is fairly quick, around 30-40 kts, so these storms
should be on the move. Additionally, the best MUCAPE is located over
NW Arizona, so they should weaken as they push to the east this
morning. Through the day, the front will continue to make its way to
the east and should exit our area by around early afternoon.

We are also seeing some showers and thunderstorms moving into our
southern areas in response to a continued subtropical moisture push
from the remnants of Raymond. As with the front, the instability is
best off to the south of our area and these cells have dropped off
quickly once they have moved into our areas. Showers and storms will
remain possible through this evening, especially in areas along the
Mogollon Rim through the White Mountains.

The next system will dig down from the PACNW on Monday. The pressure
gradient will start to tighten up in advance of the troughs arrival
and we should see some gusty winds across the region, especially for
Monday through Wednesday. Another aspect of the trough digging
further south is that it will enhance the southerly flow and will
bring up more moisture from the remnants of Raymond into the region.
This means will will continue to see scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday across the forecast area. With such wet
antecedent conditions, we will need to monitor where the heaviest
rain is expected and be prepared for potential flooding. The low
closes off as it moves into the Great Basin and the continued south
to southwest flow across the area will keep us unsettled through
midweek. Moisture becomes more scarce on the southwest flow but
isolated storms will still be around on Tuesday, shifting north
towards the Utah border for Wednesday. One thing this system will
bring to AZ is much colder air. Overnight lows will be the hardest
hit with some of the typical cold spots falling below freezing by
Wednesday morning. Daytime highs will be close to 10 degrees below
average so it will certainly start to feel like fall around here.

The low clears out of the region by Thursday, leaving dry and cooler
conditions across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 12/06Z through Monday 13/06Z...Widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms with LCL MVFR conditions with storms.
MVFR and LCL IFR conditions will be present at high elevation
sites through 14Z due to low clouds and fog. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop again on Sunday, with MVFR to brief IFR
possible generally along and south of a line from KFLG-KSOW.
Winds will be light, but gusty around any storms.

OUTLOOK...Monday 13/06Z through Wednesday 15/06Z...Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday, most numerous along
and east of a line from KPAN-KRQE. Mostly VFR conditions on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds SW 5-15kts, with gusts to 25kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Showers and thunderstorms remain
in the area both days, primarily south of I-40 on Sunday spreading
north through Navajo and Apache counties overnight into Monday.
Highest rainfall accumulations expected along/south of the eastern
Mogollon Rim throughout the period. Winds S-SW 5-10 mph on Sunday,
becoming 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph on Monday. Gusty and
erratic winds can be expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, becoming cool and drier towards the end of the week.
Daytime highs 5-10 degrees below normal by Thursday. Winds southwest
through west 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph Tuesday and Wednesday,
then west through northwest 5-15 mph on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff