727
FXUS65 KFGZ 030914
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
214 AM MST Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions are expected for much of northern
Arizona through the weekend and into early next week. Any chances
for showers will be limited to the White Mountains for the time
being.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Drier, westerly flow aloft will keep preciptation
at bay for much northern Arizona. Some remnant moisture near the White
Mountains will allow for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, however this activity should largely be minimal.

Temperatures also begin to rise today as high pressure begins to
build over California. High temperatures this afternoon look to be
around 5 degrees above normal.

Thursday and Friday...High pressure continues to build over
California, keeping warming temperatures in the forecast. With
increasing confidence in excessive heat in the lower elevations, the
Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to a warning. Northerly flow
aloft will continue to keep moisture mainly limited to the lower
deserts of southern Arizona. A rouge isolated shower can not be
ruled out along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in the
afternoon, but for now chances will remain below any mentionable
values.

Saturday through Tuesday...Heights continue to rise over Arizona as
the area of high pressure shifts eastward and becomes centered over
the Lower Colorado River Valley. Temperatures continue to rise, with
highs nearing 10 degrees above normal. Much of the lower elevations
look to be above 100F with the lowest elevations near or even above
110F. Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning has been extended through the
holiday weekend and into Monday.

Moisture largely remains outside of the region, however it does look
to gradually increase on the southern fringes of the CWA. Guidance
especially begins to diverge into next week as Hurricane Beryl
potentially makes landfall in Texas/northern Mexico. Although with
the strength of the high in place, any moisture that is sent this
way looks to have minimal impact with mostly just an increase in
afternoon cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 03/06Z through Thursday 04/06Z...VFR
conditions will prevail over the northern Arizona TAF sites
through the period. Westerly/southwesterly wind gusts up to 20
knots will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 04/06Z through Saturday 06/06Z...VFR conditions
will prevail over northern Arizona through the outlook period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Shower and thunderstorm
chances retreat to southern Apache County Wednesday afternoon, with
dry conditions Thursday. Temperatures will climb well above normal
during this period. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph today become
lighter on Thursday, with a switch to northerly.

Friday through Sunday...Hot and dry conditions are expected. Very
slight chances of convective development over or south of the White
Mountains will likely not lead to any measurable rainfall. Daily
northwest through northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Thursday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff