876
FXUS65 KFGZ 191012
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
312 AM MST Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably cool temperatures remain through Saturday,
before warmer temperatures return next week. A cold front will
bring a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms to the area
late Friday into Saturday, with otherwise dry conditions expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Arizona is sandwiched between a strengthening
trough to the west just off the Califorina Coast and high pressure
to the east over Texas and northern Mexico. With the increased
pressure gradient, southerly flow looks to increase over Arizona,
keeping breezy conditions around. However, winds should remain
largely i n the 20-30 mph range. Temperatures should also be a bit
warmer this afternoon, but still remaining slightly below normal.

Friday through Saturday...As the aforementioned low ejects off the
Pacific and moves into southern California. As this occurs, the
increased southerly flow should be enough to advect some moisture
northward into northern Arizona. To what extent is still uncertain,
but latest guidance has trended towards an increase in precipitation
chances over the past 24 hours.

As the low continues to move eastward, an area of frontogenetic
forcing should allow for a period of banded showers moving across
northern Arizona starting Friday evening and into Saturday morning.
The only question is how much moisture this forcing will have to
work with.

700 mb temperatures look to dip down to around +2C in the core of
the low, so snow levels look to be high enough for all rain across
much of the area. However, snow levels may dip down enough for the
first snow across the mountains tops above 10,000 feet.

Sunday through Wednesday...Heights rise behind the departing trough,
and high pressure largely builds over Arizona. Rising temperatures
and dry conditions follow suit into the start of next week. Model
guidance does have a shortwave trough dropping southward through the
Rockies sometime next week, but given the track, the system will be
fairly moisture starved and any sensible impacts will be limited to
some breezier northeasterly winds and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 19/06Z through Friday 20/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Light wind overnight, becoming SW 10-20 kts gusting to
25-30kts from 18Z-02Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 20/06Z through Sunday 22/06Z...Expect mostly VFR
conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA north of the I-40 corridor Friday
afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Winds SW 10-20 kts gusting
25-30 kts 18Z-02Z Friday. Winds shifting W-NW and decreasing
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry weather continues today with
seasonable temperatures and afternoon southwest wind 15 to 25 mph. A
chance of showers will develop over western Coconino and Yavapai
counties late Friday morning with southerly winds 15 to 25 mph. The
chance for showers will spreads eastward through Friday night.

Saturday through Monday...Cooler with a chance of showers lingering
north of I-40 Saturday. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph Saturday
afternoon. West to north winds on Sunday and Monday as a warming and
drying trend develops.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff