717
FXUS65 KFGZ 100910
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
210 AM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Sub-tropical moisture will lead to widespread showers
and thunderstorms through late Saturday. Flash flooding will be
possible as a result of the heavy rainfall. Unsettled conditions
continue into the first part of next week, but coverage will
decrease and become more of an isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TS Priscilla continues to push northward along the
western Baja coast, weakening along the way. Strong moisture
advection from the remnants of this storm combined with a trough
situated off the PACNW coast, have allowed for deep moisture to
to build across the state.

An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms extend from around the
I-8 corridor north-northeastward into northeastern Arizona early
this morning. Storm motions are around 15-25 mph which has kept the
heaviest of rain from lingering over any one particular spot so far
tonight. Rainfall rates have not been too impressive with this
initial band (~1-1.5"/hr rates) but the quick movement has only
resulted in about 0.10-0.50" of rain in spots. This area of
precipitation will continue to gradually move off towards the
northeast this morning with mostly lighter totals.

As we move through the day today, we will see large-scale ascent
take place as the trough to our west starts to approach the region.
PWATs are very high for this time of year (>0.80") and with more
moisture on the way, we should see some very efficient storms
through this afternoon and into tonight. Moderate risk for
excessive rainfall remains in place for Friday and current hi-res
models show that the heaviest rain is more likely to take place
tonight into Saturday. Rainfall totals of around 1-3" look likely
across much of the forecast area with upslope areas having the
possibility of seeing locally higher amounts. In addition to the
heavy rain, we also have modest CAPE and decent shear, which could
lead to some stronger storms.

By Saturday, the trough starts to push eastward, and this will help
to shift the areas of heavy rain to the east and along with that,
the threat for any flash flooding. Flow will become more
southwesterly with some drier air aloft trying to establish itself
over the area.

For Sunday and beyond...Several troughs will highlight the forecast
for much of the coming week with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 10/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Widespread
SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA will continue through the night and into
Friday, with increasing SHRA/TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.
MVFR and local IFR in the heavier showers and thunderstorms, with
more persistent IFR conditions over the high terrain. Winds will
generally be out of the SE, with gusty winds near the heavier
showers.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 11/06Z through Monday 13/06Z...Expect widespread
SHRA/-TSRA through Saturday night, decreasing from the NW on
Sunday. Widespread MVFR conditions and areas of IFR in the heavier
showers. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions in FG are also expected
over higher elevation upslope areas, including KFLG/KGCN. Winds
will become S-SW at 10-20 kts on Saturday. Gusty/erratic winds
should be expected in heavier showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Widespread wetting rains, with
the highest accumulations expected in Yavapai, Coconino, and
northern Gila counties. A Flood Watch will be in effect for most of
northern Arizona through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms
also possible. Winds are south through southeast 5-15 mph on Friday,
then southwest 10-20 mph on Saturday. Gusty and erratic winds can be
expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday through Tuesday...Storm coverage becomes more isolated to
scattered during this period. Daytime winds south through southwest
10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds can be
expected near showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening for AZZ004>010-012-013-015-
016-018-037>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff