478
FXUS65 KFGZ 010828
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
128 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A few rain and snow showers will end this morning in
eastern Arizona as a weak cold front pushes south across the
region. Otherwise, cool and dry weather continues today and
Tuesday before another weak weather system brings a chance of
light rain and snow showers from Wednesday into early Thursday.
Fair weather returns later Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough diving southeastward across Colorado into
New Mexico is clipping northeast Arizona early this morning. At 1
AM, an east-west oriented band of light snow along the cold front
stretched from just east of Flagstaff to the Window Rock area.
This band will continue to sag south with the front, weakening as
it passes south of I-40 by sunrise. Today will otherwise be a cool
and dry day, with northeast breezes mainly 5-15 mph. Some very dry
air is forecast to move in from the northeast later today and
tonight (dewpoints in the single digits). With light winds
expected tonight, this dry air should allow for the coldest
overnight low temperatures of the season for many areas
(teens/low 20s above 5000 ft, single digits in the favored cold
spots like Bellemont/Window Rock/Tusayan).

By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures should warm to near normal for
early December with light southwest winds developing ahead of the
next weather system moving in from the north. This system is due
to cross our area on Wednesday into early Thursday. The latest
model forecasts have been trending drier with this system, taking
a path similar to the one passing through this morning.
Precipitation probabilities have trended downward, now around 20%
Wednesday and 20-40% Wednesday night, mostly from Flagstaff
eastward. Official forecasts call for less than 1" of snow above
6500 feet elevation Wednesday and Wednesday night. The NBM 90th
percentile snowfall (10% chance of seeing these amounts or more)
are only in the 1-2" range above 6500 feet, indicating this system
has a pretty low chance of producing significant snowfall.

Thursday through the weekend - model guidance indicating a dry
northwest flow across our region as high pressure remains off the
west coast and the storm track is north of Arizona. Afternoon high
temperatures near normal, with generally light winds 15 mph or
less.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 01/06Z through Tuesday 02/06Z...Mainly VFR
expected. Brief MVFR possible in -SHRA/-SHSN mainly along/north
of a KGCN-KRQE line through 10Z. Light and VRB winds overnight,
then N-NE 5-15 kts after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 02/06Z through Thursday 04/06Z...VFR expected.
S-SW winds 5-15 kts on Tuesday, then SW-W 10-15 kts on Wednesday.
SCT -SHRA/-SHSN after 18Z Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Cool and dry conditions. Winds
north/northeast 5-15 mph today, becoming south/southwest on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Chance for rain and high-elevation snow
showers Wednesday and Thursday, with dry conditions returning by
Friday. Winds west/northwest 5-15 mph on Wednesday, shifting
north/northeast on Thursday. Winds becoming west/northwest 5-10 mph
on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff