446
FXUS65 KFGZ 141806
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1106 AM MST Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue today, becoming isolated across northwestern Arizona late
tonight into Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for
Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A closed low/trough continues to dig down along the
California coast this morning. With strong ridge residing over
Texas, this is creating a tightening pressure gradient. This will
result in gusty southerly winds across the forecast areas with
widespread 30-40 mph gusts. Some areas, including the Coconino
Plateau, Western Mogollon Rim, and Yavapai County Mountains, will be
even windier as they reside closer to the tightening gradient. Wind
gusts in these areas will be 40-50 mph through this evening and a
Wind Advisory is in effect until 7 PM MST (8 PM MDT) tonight.

Moisture continues to be pushed northward through the region this
morning with some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly along and east of the I-17 corridor. As the trough deepens
and the flow becomes more south-southwesterly, we should see a bit
more dry air filter into the region and the moisture will ext to the
north and east. Some lingering moisture this evening may result in
some showers and storms across northwestern Arizona overnight into
early Wednesday, with activity dwindling through the morning and
coming to an end around midday Wednesday.

The low lifts to the north through Wednesday but the base of the
trough digs down a bit more and takes a little longer to exit the
area. The trough will rotate through on Thursday with a secondary
trough pushing down Thursday night and moving southeastward through
the state on Friday.

One thing this system is sure to bring, aside from the dry air, is
much colder air to the region. Overnight lows will be cold,
especially in the more typical cold spots, falling below freezing by
Wednesday night, with each subsequent night being cold through the
end of the week. Daytime highs will be 5-15 degrees below average
through the end of the week before we see a slight warm up to near
average over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 14/18Z through Wednesday 15/18Z...VFR
conditions with S/SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts before
subsiding to around 5-15 kts after 03Z. Locally gusty winds
downwind of higher terrain are possible overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/18Z through Friday 17/18Z...VFR conditions.
Southwest winds 10-20kts on Wednesday, becoming NW-NE 5-10 kts on
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Mainly dry and cool conditions,
outside of a slight chance of showers this evening and overnight
near the Kaibab Plateau. Winds south/southwest 15-25 mph with gusts
30-40 mph today, subsiding to 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on
Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Turning warmer, but still cooler than
normal, along with continued dry conditions. Light northwest through
northeast winds 5-10 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ007-
008-015>017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff