345
FXUS65 KFGZ 120003
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
503 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
tonight. Drier air will move into the area on Sunday, with a few
showers and thunderstorms possible south and east of Flagstaff.
Unsettled and cool conditions are expected to continue into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Main rain band from whats left of tropical cyclone
Priscilla is pushing off to the east, with only the eastern Rim
and White Mountains still getting a steady rain. So much moisture
remains across the area that it only takes a quick peek of sun to
regenerate convective clouds. Question is will it be enough
surface heating to generate sufficient CAPE to get some storms
going. Approaching West Coast trough is bringing some decent shear
across the area to help assist anything that gets going and could
lead to some stronger and maybe even a couple severe storms, but
storms so far this afternoon have been slow to get going. Will
keep monitoring to see what happens.

For Sunday there`s still plenty of leftover subtropical moisture
and some leftover lift from the trough moving to our north to
generate a few more showers and thunderstorms across the area,
though most of the activity will be south of I-40. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms is possible Monday as southwesterly
flow ahead of another West Coast trough approaches the area. By
Tuesday this trough closes off into a Low over the San Francisco
Bay Area, but building high pressure over Texas will retrograde
enough to push this Low to our north, in turn taking its moisture
with it and finally drying out the leftover subtropical moisture
out of our area. Even though this trough takes its moisture north,
enough of its cool air remains far enough south to keep our
maximum temperatures below average for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 12/00Z through Monday 13/00Z...Widely scattered
thunderstorms with MVFR conditions possible tonight, generally
north of a KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line. MVFR conditions will be present
at high elevation sites through 14Z due to low clouds and fog.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop again on Sunday, with MVFR
to brief IFR possible, generally along and south of a line from
KFLG-KSOW. Winds will generally be light, but gusty around any
storms.

OUTLOOK...Monday 13/00Z through Wednesday 15/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on
Monday with LCL MVFR conditions. Winds SW 5-15kts, with gusts to
25kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Showers and thunderstorms
remain in the area both days, becoming more scattered in nature and
primarily remaining south of I-40. Winds S-SW 5-10 mph on Sunday, S-
SW 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph on Monday. Gusty and erratic winds can
be expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...A couple isolated showers or storms on
Tuesday, mainly from the morning to early afternoon, with the best
rain chances over the Chuskas and White Mountains. Things dry out
for Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime winds S-SW 10-20 mph with gusts
to 30 mph Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime winds W-NW 5-15 mph on
Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MST /1 AM MDT/ tonight for AZZ004>010-
012-013-015-016-018-037>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff