998
FXUS65 KFGZ 301743
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1043 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will move across northern Arizona
late this evening and into tonight. Gusty winds and cooler
temperatures are in store for most, with chances for rain and
snow showers limited to the Four Corners region. Cool and dry
weather will move in on Tuesday before unsettled weather returns
later on Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday...A shortwave over Idaho moves
southward into the Four Corners region late tonight, pushing a
weak cold front through Arizona. For most, this will lead to only
an increase in high clouds through the day, as well as increasing
winds. Southwest winds look to increase through the day ahead of
the front, with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible along and
downwind of the Mogollon Rim.

Given the track of this system, moisture looks to be fairly sparse
and thus much of the area will remain dry. The only exception to
this looks to be areas near Four Corners, which could see some rain
and snow showers late this evening into early Monday morning. Snow
levels look to be around 6500 feet, however the best chance for
seeing accumulating snow looks to be the Chuska Mountains (Buffalo
Pass) where 2-5 inches are forecast.

Tuesday through Saturday...Drier and colder conditions set in behind
the front for the first part of next week. Late in the week, a
positively tiled trough looks to move through Arizona late Wednesday
into Thursday. While much colder air looks to move overhead with
this system, the overall available moisture remains in question.
Latest EPS, GEFS, and CMCE guidance still has a fairly large spread
on exact precipitation amounts and the latest runs of the operational
guidance largely favors areas south and east. Thus, confidence
remains on the lower end at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 30/18Z through Monday 01/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. A weak weather system will bring some rain and high
elevation snow showers to northeast Arizona late this afternoon
through Monday morning. Brief MVFR may be possible with these
showers. Winds SW 10-25kts, gusts 30-35kts this afternoon, light
and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/18Z through Wednesday 03/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected until Wednesday afternoon when the next
storm system moves in. Winds N 10kts Monday, S-SW 5-10kts
Tuesday, SW-W 10-15kts Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Dry most of today before a
weather system brings scattered to numerous rain and high elevation
snow showers mainly over northern Navajo and Apache counties this
evening, ending before sunrise Monday. Cool and dry for Monday
afternoon. Winds SW 15-20 mph, gusting 25 to 35 mph today, then N-NE
10-15 mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry on Tuesday. Another weather system
brings a 20-50% of rain and high elevation snow showers from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Winds SW 10-15 mph on Tuesday
and Wednesday, switching to the N-NE 5-10 mph by Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff