492
FXUS65 KFGZ 101046
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
345 AM MST Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unusually warm weather will continue on Thursday,
with isolated showers forecast mainly across the White Mountains.
Dry weather returns to all of northern Arizona on Friday, followed
by a gradual cooling trend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It`s been a quiet night across northern Arizona,
with clear skies and relatively warm temperatures given the time
of year. Drier air across the area will lead to only isolated
light showers across the White Mountains this afternoon with some
clouds building over the rest of the high country. Temperatures
today and Friday will be very warm once again, around 5-15 degrees
above normal.

The strong ridge over the Great Basin will slowly move to the
east over the next couple days, putting northern Arizona under
increasing southwest flow and slightly lower heights (that is,
a slightly cooler atmosphere). With this our temperatures will
slowly decrease into the weekend, with some increase in winds.
Models are consistent with a weak trough settling into the area
late this weekend into early next week which may bring a slight
chance of light showers to the area.

A more significant change in the weather looks to be in store
late next week as a stronger trough impacts the West, with more
typical Fall-like weather in store.


&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 10/12Z through Friday 11/12Z...VFR conditions.
Localized HZ/FU possible from area prescribed burns. -SHRA possible
in vicinity of KJTC/KSOW 19Z-02Z, gusty winds 25-35 kts possible
near SHRA. Otherwise, VRB winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 11/12Z through Sunday 13/12Z...VFR conditions.
Localized HZ/FU possible from area prescribed burns. Daytime winds
S/SW around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts, becoming light and VRB
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Outside of a slight chance for an
isolated light shower near the White Mountains this afternoon, very
warm and dry conditions are expected. Gusty outflow winds will be
possible near any stronger shower. Variable winds around 10 mph or
less today, becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures. South/southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff