698
FXUS65 KFGZ 222307
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front will move through on Thursday
bringing a few clouds and increased northeast winds. Warmer again
on Friday before unsettled weather arrives over the weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It`s a clear and cool day with just a few thin high
clouds south in the southern half of the state. North to northeast
winds have increased to 10-20 mph. Overnight, a potent shortwave
will dive southward through Colorado into New Mexico, with
increasing northeast winds toward morning. This will also push a
blast of colder air into the region, with high temperatures
Thursday up to 15 degrees colder than today. The strongest wind
speeds are forecast to occur during the morning into early
afternoon, then gradually decrease later in the afternoon and
evening. Wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph are
expected along and south of the Mogollon Rim. With the ongoing dry
weather, some areas of near-critical fire weather are forecast so
please be very careful with anything that could start a fire.

Friday and Saturday - the next shortwave diving southward is
forecast to take a much further west track than Thursday`s. It
will move into the Pac NW and Idaho Friday and then start to close
off by Saturday somewhere over central California or the Great
Basin. So in terms of the impacts to our weather through Saturday,
it will bring a substantial warmup (10-20 degrees) Friday as the
flow turns southwesterly. By Saturday, southwest flow increases
with gusty winds in the 15-25 mph range a possibility, along with
a bit of cooling.

Sunday into early next week - ensemble guidance indicates a low
pressure system swinging eastward across the region, with still
plenty of variability in timing and amounts of precipitation. The
trend in the 12Z suite was toward a slower onset of rain/snow
chances, holding off mostly until later Sunday. Guidance is also
varied on how long it sticks around, with many of the members
keeping a chance of precipitation for the region through at least
Tuesday. Snow levels are currently forecast to be in the 4000-5500
ft range through the event. While we don`t have details on amounts
just yet, this is the best chance for precip/snow more than just a
few hundredths that we have seen in a couple months.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 23/00Z through Friday 24/00Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Look for northeast winds at 5-15 kts with locally
stronger gusts through the night. Northeast winds will strengthen
to 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 24/00Z through Sunday 26/00Z...VFR conditions will
continue. Gusty north to northeast winds will continue Friday
night along and south of a KFLG-KSOW line. During the day Friday,
winds will slowly become more southerly, remaining 10 kts or less.
South winds at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts developing Saturday
afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Friday...Very dry conditions
today and Thursday with increasing winds will produce areas of near
critical fire weather conditions. Near average temperatures today
will become 5-10 degrees cooler on Thursday. Northerly winds 10-20
mph, gusting near 30 mph this afternoon, becoming north-northeast 10-
20 mph north of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line and 15-25 mph with gusts to
near 40 mph south of that line on Thursday. Winds will be more
southerly and lighter on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Daytime highs will gradually drop through
the weekend, as a storm systems approaches Arizona. Chances for
showers begin Saturday afternoon across the Kaibab Plateau and push
southeastward through Sunday and Monday. Minimum RH values go from
single digits/teens Saturday to 25-45% on Sunday. Light southerly
winds Friday, increasing to 10-25 mph Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff