


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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440 FXUS65 KFGZ 022357 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 457 PM MST Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cold and unsettled weather will develop for the rest of the week, with widespread rain and snow into this evening and additional shower chances each day through Saturday. Brief periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible this afternoon and evening in the higher elevations. High pressure begins to build back into Arizona early next week, with dry and warmer weather expected. && .DISCUSSION...A cold longwave trough covers the western US this afternoon, with an embedded shortwave rotating through western Arizona headed eastward. Widespread showers have developed over much of northern Arizona, with the highest coverage so far from Yavapai County up to the Mogollon Rim into western Coconino County. There is enough instability for isolated thunderstorms as this activity spreads northward through this evening. These vigorous snow showers will cause sudden drops in visibility as well as snow covered roads at times, especially as we get later into the afternoon. Road surface temperatures have kept the snow from accumulating on the roadways so far, but this may change as showers get heavier and the late afternoon sun angles get lower. By late evening and overnight, the focus will shift to the northern 1/3 of the state as the initial shortwave moves to near four corners by sunrise Thursday. There will still be some scattered upslope snow showers at times along the Mogollon Rim. A general 2-5" snowfall is forecast through Thursday morning along the Mogollon Rim to the Kaibab Plateau and the northeast AZ high terrain. Thursday - another shortwave rotates into northern Arizona from the northwest, bringing additional showers especially during the afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible once again. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with this one, so additional snow amounts will be a trace to 2" above 6000 feet and may melt off between showers. The low remains over our region Friday with another round of rain and snow showers and light accumulation above 6500 feet. Finally by Saturday the low moves east of the state, with some lingering showers mainly along the AZ/NM state line. Starting Sunday and continuing into at least the middle of next week, high pressure will lead to dry and much warmer weather. && .AVIATION...Thursday 03/00Z through Friday 04/00Z...Widespread convective SHRA/SHSN are bringing periods rapidly changing between VFR-LIFR. Showers bringing these conditions will taper off during the night, but MVFR-IFR CIGS could linger. Activity picks up again after 18Z, bringing further periods of IFR-LIFR. Afternoon winds are quickly dying off, becoming VRB less than 10 kts tonight then W-SW 5- 10 kts tomorrow. OUTLOOK...Friday 04/00Z through Sunday 06/00Z...MVFR-IFR conditions in SHRA/SHSN will continue through Thursday evening. Further chances for showers with flight impacts continue Friday and Saturday. Winds are N-NW 5-15 kts on Friday, then N 10-20 kts on Saturday. Light and VRB or terrain driven during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Scattered rain and snow showers remain in the area both days. Best chance for wetting rain or snow water equivalent amounts on Thursday is the Western Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateaus, with the White Mountains seeing a better chance for wetting rain or snow water equivalent on Friday. Winds will be S-SW 5-15 mph on Thursday, switching to N-NW 5-15 mph on Friday. Some brief gusty and erratic winds are possible near showers. Minimum RH values 35 to 60% each afternoon. Saturday through Monday...A chance of rain and snow showers hangs around on Saturday with the eastern mountains of the state seeing the best chances. Things begin to dry out Sunday, with temperatures warming back to seasonal averages Sunday onward and above average towards midweek. Winds N 5 to 15 mph Saturday and Sunday, W-SW 5 to 15 mph Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff