500
FXUS65 KFGZ 012354
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
454 PM MST Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Windy conditions continue through early this evening,
with an unsettled and colder pattern with chances for rain and
snow through the rest of the week. Dry and warmer weather returns
late in the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The initial shortwave is pushing a cold front
southward through the region this afternoon. The front was
approaching a Prescott-Flagstaff-Window Rock line at 1230 PM.
Along and ahead of the front, strong southwest winds are
continuing, with gusts 40-55 mph. Behind the front, wind gusts
drop off the 30 mph or less. There is also some scattered rain and
snow shower activity along the front, though any accumulations
should be spotty and minimal this afternoon.

Wednesday - the next colder/deeper shortwave moves into Arizona
from the northwest. This will bring a much higher chance of
precipitation to the region, with snow levels dipping to 4500-5000
feet. There was little change with the afternoon forecast package
regarding amounts, though PoPs were increased significantly. Still
looking like a general 2-5 inch snowfall above about 6000 feet,
though with the spring sun angle and warmer ground conditions we
may not see that much on the ground at any given time. Won`t issue
any winter headlines at this time, but the most likely period of
hazardous conditions along I-40/I-17 looks like mid afternoon
Wednesday into the evening. Also looks like enough instability for
a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon so that was
included in the latest forecasts.

Yet another shortwave moves southeast into the area for Thursday,
continuing southward and closing off over southern Arizona by
Friday. Additional showers are forecast each day, with snow levels
gradually rising to around 5500 feet Thursday and 6000 feet
Friday. Thursday`s amounts are forecast to be 0.10" or less of
precipitation and an inch or less of snow. Friday should be more
convective, so while amounts are still light in general, some
localized spots could see some higher amounts in isolated heavier
showers. Some trailing showers continue Saturday especially in
eastern Arizona.

Late in the weekend into early next week - high pressure is
forecast to build in with warmer temperatures and dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 02/00Z through Thursday 03/00Z...A frontal
band bringing IFR/LIFR CIGS and VIS in SHRA/SHSN is currently moving
SE from KPRC-KSEZ-KINW. Mesoscale models have precipitation mostly
dissipating by 03Z, then widespread VFR returns through 15Z. Periods
of MVFR/IFR in SHRA/SHSN thereafter. Winds are SW 20-30 kts
gusting up to 45 kts through 02Z, then lighter overnight.
Afternoon winds are SW 10-20 kts gusting up to 30 kts on
Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 03/00Z through Saturday 05/00Z...MVFR/IFR
conditions in SHRA/SHSN will continue through 06Z Thursday.
Showers may linger thereafter, then greater chances return after
18Z Friday. Winds are W-SW 5-10 kts on Thursday, becoming N-NW
5-15 kts on Friday. Overnight winds are light and VRB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Widespread rain and snow
showers forecast for Wednesday, becoming more scattered across the
higher terrain on Thursday. Winds will generally be out of the south-
southwest 10-20 mph, but wind gusts near showers/storms could be
gusty/erratic. Minimum RH values look to be 25-50% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...A warming trend is expected over the
weekend, with scattered showers continuing Friday and Saturday
afternoon. Drier conditions look to return by Sunday, with limited
precipitation over eastern AZ. Northerly winds will set up through
the period, 5-15 mph, with potential for localized gusts near
showers.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ011>013-015>017-039-040.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ014.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff