524
FXUS65 KFGZ 071126
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
426 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure will continue to bring snow to
parts of eastern Arizona through tonight, with the highest amounts
across the mountains. Some lighter snow is expected as far west as
Flagstaff before shifting to the east through the day. Warmer and
drier weather returns on Friday through the weekend with another
trough expected early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A slow moving low is currently located across north-
eastern Arizona early this morning, The low will slowly drop
slightly southward through this morning before starting to push
towards the east this afternoon. Isolated to scattered snow showers
have pushed as far west as Flagstaff but as the low makes a shift to
the south and then east, the precipitation should start to follow
suit. Highest snow amounts look largely confined to the higher
elevations of the San Francisco Peaks and the Chuska Mountains where
2-6" of snow is expected.

By late afternoon, the low will be headed into New Mexico. The
shower activity will also push east with the areas along the New
Mexico/Arizona state line keeping the best chances as we head into
the evening hours. Drier air will start to move in behind the low so
while temperatures will remain fairly cold, we should start to see
showers end pretty quickly from west to east. Another thing to keep
an eye on will be the winds. The pressure gradient really tightens
up as the trough pushes to the east and we will see strong northerly
winds around 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph through at least
early this afternoon before winds drop off this evening.

Behind the departing low, things start to clear out and we should
see a slight warming trend for Friday through the weekend with dry
conditions expected. Any lingering stronger winds or showers on
Friday will be confined to right along the AZ/NM state line.

A weak trough may approach the region from the west late in the
weekend, but it looks like it lacks moisture and not much oomph
as it move through. Likely some increase in cloud cover and some
increase in the winds but otherwise not expecting much impact as
it crosses the area.

The next trough to move through the region will start to push down
from the Pacific Northwest late Monday and Tuesday. This trough
looks move into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday. Again, this
trough will bring an increase in winds and clouds, along with colder
temperatures, but the moisture component isn`t looking all that
promising as the trough crosses to our north. Something to keep an
eye on as a slightly deeper trough may access a bit more moisture
and bring a few more snow showers to the area. Stay tuned for
updates in the coming days!

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 07/12Z through Friday 08/12Z...ISO-SCT SHSN
expected through 03Z, mainly north and east of KPGA-KFLG-KJTC line.
Thereafter, ISO -SHSN will be possible the AZ/NM border. Brief MVFR
CIGS and VIS possible in SHSN. Winds N/NE 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30
kts, becoming light and VRB after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 08/12Z through Sunday 10/12Z...MVFR possible in ISO
-SHSN/-SHRA near the AZ/NM before 21Z Friday, with VFR conditions
otherwise expected. Winds N/NW 5-10 kts on Friday, becoming light
and VRB on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Scattered snow showers linger
through today, mainly from Flagstaff and eastward. Isolated activity
may remain along the Arizona-New Mexico border on Friday, but
otherwise dry conditions. North/northeast winds 15 to 25 mph,
becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions.
Winds light and variable over the weekend, becoming south 5 to 15
mph on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ011.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff