176
FXUS65 KFGZ 092115
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
215 PM MST Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mild and dry weather will continue through Monday. Rain
and snow chances return for Tuesday into Wednesday and then again
for Thursday into Friday. Mild weather returns over the coming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Monday...A weak ridge has
settled across the region and will hang around through Monday. Some
of the harder hit areas from the recent winter storm continue to
retain their snow cover on the ground. With clear skies and have
light winds, these areas will be able to cool off more than is
typical with bare ground. Expect another cold night across the
region. The ridge starts to shift to the east on Monday and with an
approaching trough, we will start to see a southerly flow develop.
Dry conditions are expected with warmer temperatures 5-10 degrees
above average.

Tuesday through Friday...the unsettled pattern continues with a
couple of systems moving through the state this week. The first
system will arrive on Tuesday as a low over the eastern Pacific
moves onshore and into the state. Models continue to show a more
southerly track, keeping the best chances for any rain/snow along
and south of the I-40 corridor. The low is projected to weaken as it
moves to the east and opens up into a long wave trough as it exits
the area early Wednesday. Conditions continue to stay on the warmer
side of the spectrum, which will keep snow levels up around 6000 ft
for this event. Snowfall amounts look paltry with this system as it
has limited moisture and is a fairly quick mover. Amounts will range
between a trace and 3", with the highest accumulations across the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Some lingering showers are
expected on Wednesday, though not much in the way of accumulation is
expected.

The second system is the main story of the week. This system is
much deeper and colder than the Tuesday trough and will bring more
chances for rain and snow. The trajectory of the deepening trough is
very favorable for us and model guidance has been consistent in
showing an anomalously  strong trough crossing the state. With that in
mind there is higher confidence that we will see an impactful event
for the region. The trough digs down through the Great Basin and
arrives on Thursday. A good deal of moisture is available with this
trough and strong dynamics will be in play as well. The gradient
tightens up and will result in strong, gusty winds for Thursday and
Friday, with gusts 35-45 mph. Ample moisture will result in
widespread rain and snow, with the heaviest precipitation expected
Thursday night into Friday morning. QPF from the various models has
been fairly consistent thus far ranging from around 0.50-1.00"
across the region. With the cold air moving in, snow levels will
drop down from around 6000 ft on Thursday to around 4000 ft by
Friday night. Would not be surprised to see some light accumulations
in some of the lower elevations with this event. Additionally, there
is some instability present with this storm and that leaves the
potential we could see a few isolated rumbles of thunder. While
there are still some timing/phasing issues with the storm, the
overall consensus is that we have increasing confidence for a strong
storm that produces some good snows across the region Thursday and
Friday.  This system is likely to have impacts on the Thursday
evening and Friday morning commutes, possible the Thursday morning
commute for areas across Yavapai and western Coconino counties.

Saturday and Sunday...the trough lifts out of the region late
Friday, giving way to a building ridge over the Pacific. This should
allow for some warming temperatures across the region. A couple of
waves traveling down the front side of the ridge may produce a few
showers, mainly on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 09/18Z through Monday 10/18Z...VFR under mostly
clear skies will prevail over the next 24 hours. Locally breezy
NE/E winds up to 15 kts through about 22Z, before winds become
light and variable through the rest of the period.

OUTLOOK...Monday 10/18Z through Wednesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions
through 00Z Wed, then areas MVFR due to lower CIGS and rain/snow
showers Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Winds S-SW
10-15 kts Monday and S-SW 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry with warm daytime
temperatures Monday. Winds become south to southwest 10 to 15 mph
Monday afternoon. Winds increase Tuesday with gusts up to 30 mph. A
Pacific trough passage will bring rain and snow chances primarily
along and south of I-40 Tuesday evening and night.

Wednesday through Friday...Breezy and cooler conditions are expected
on Wednesday with continued chances for rain and snow showers,
mostly south of I-40. A stronger storm system moves in on Thursday,
bringing southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph and the potential for
widespread rain and snow lasting into Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff