420
FXUS65 KFGZ 150543
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1043 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching storm system brings gusty winds for
Friday and much colder temperatures for the weekend. There is a
chance of rain and snow showers Saturday in northwest Arizona, and
Sunday in far eastern Arizona. More cold and unsettled weather is
possible early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...High level cirrus clouds are just beginning to enter
western Arizona this evening in advance of a deepening west coast
trough. High clouds will increase mainly north of I-40 overnight.
Temperatures have dropped quickly this evening with very dry air
in place and a period of calm winds before they begin to increase
overnight. Have decreased overnight low temperature forecasts
slightly in some of the colder spots to account for current
trends, with otherwise no big updates needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /540 PM MST/...Sunny and warm conditions are being
observed across northern Arizona this afternoon. Temperatures are
running 5-10 degrees warmer than normal for mid November. By
tonight, not expecting temperatures to be quite as cold as recent
nights as an approaching low pressure system will cause winds
aloft to increase. This will also keep surface winds from going
calm for most areas, keeping things mixed and temperatures up a
bit. On Friday, the southern end of the west coast trough
continues to approach. With daytime mixing, expect surface winds
to become strong and gusty from the southwest. Current forecasts
indicate the highest gusts from the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains northward. We issued a Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM
MST for this area, expecting widespread gusts 40-50 mph with a few
gusts close to 55 mph just downstream from the rim and White
Mtns. These higher gusts may impact Doney Park, Winona, Show Low,
Taylor, Snowflake, Vernon, and Springerville. Winds should die
down shortly after sunset but may continue through the evening for
the wind prone areas near the White Mtns. Most areas will see
highs on Friday drop by 10-15 degrees compared to today, with
eastern AZ only dropping around 5 degrees.

Friday night through Sunday - good model agreement with the track
of the low as it dives southward along the CA/AZ line into
northern Baja through Saturday, and then east-northeastward into
SE AZ on Sunday. Initially, there will be an increase in low level
moisture late Friday night through Saturday afternoon which could
bring some low clouds and a few rain/snow showers from around
Flagstaff northwestward. Highs on Saturday will also be 10-15
degrees colder than normal for mid November. On Sunday, with the
latest forecast tracks taking the low farther east, the main
chance of precipitation is over the southern half of Navajo and
Apache counties. Forecast precipitation amounts remain light,
generally 0.05" to 0.15", translating to a trace to 1" of snow
above about 7000 feet and perhaps 2" for the White Mountain peaks.

Monday through Wednesday - the forecast is considerably more
uncertain during this period. While most model and ensemble
members indicate a wave passing through the region late Monday
through Tuesday, many of the EC members are far more amplified
with a stronger low depicted. Around 40% of all ensemble members
show this, again mostly EC members. Most GEFS/GEPS members are
weaker with the wave with much less of an effect on our region.
Being this far out, our forecasts use a blended approach, so
while we will indicate breezy and cold conditions, our snow and
low elevation rain chances are only at 20-30% at this time from
Monday night into Tuesday. Stay tuned as later adjustments to the
forecast are likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 15/06Z through Saturday 16/06Z...Mostly VFR
conditions will prevail. Winds aloft will increase overnight with
wind shear developing at KFLG, KGCN, and KINW. Surface winds
remaining in the 10-15 kt range overnight, with higher gusts to 25
kts along and just north of terrain features. Surface winds
increase after daybreak Friday, becoming SW 20-30 kts gusting
30-40 kts. Winds begin to diminish after 01Z Sat.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 16/06Z through Monday 18/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected. A cold front passage Saturday will bring
a 10-30% chance for -SHRA/-SHSN from KFLG north and west, with a
chance for MVFR conditions at higher terrain sites. Winds decrease
Friday evening and become 5-15 kts. Surface winds shift to N/NE
after 00Z Sun at 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...South to southwest
winds do not completely decouple overnight as a low pressure
system approaches. Southwest winds become stronger on Friday with
widespread gusts of 35 to 50 mph. Colder on Friday but remaining
dry with Min RH below 15% in eastern Arizona. Isolated rain/snow
showers Saturday, with southwest wind 10-20 mph.

Sunday through Tuesday...Below normal temperatures continue.
Isolated rain/snow showers over east central Arizona Sunday with
another low chance area-wide Monday night into Tuesday. Winds
at 10 to 20 mph are anticipated each afternoon, north-northeasterly
on Sunday, southwesterly on Monday, and northwesterly Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006-007-
009>017-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff