973
FXUS65 KFGZ 281707
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1007 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures briefly return today, before more
unsettled weather moves in over the weekend and into next week.
Expect cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and chances of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper low over central Arizona will exit to
the east today, while a stronger low approaches the SOCAL coastline
tonight. Light easterly gradients fade later today, with southerly
gradients then increase over the weekend. However, until the next
upper low gets here Saturday night, we are actually under above
normal hghts and we will see a pair of warmish days as a result.

The Saturday night low looks fairly dry, but briefly cold. Some
instability showers are likely over the higher terrain. After a s/wv
ridge Sunday, a series of similar looking, fast-moving lows arrive
next week. None of these systems look particularly impactful at this
time, but its something.

Short term updates not needed.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 28/18Z through Saturday 01/18Z...VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. North through east winds,
generally less than 10kts, forecast this afternoon. Localized
breezes across higher terrain will gusts up to 20 kts possible.
Light and variable winds return overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 01/18Z through Monday 03/18Z...Mostly VFR
conditions forecast, but brief MVFR conditions from -SHRA/-SHSN
possible throughout the period. South-southeast winds 10-20 kts,
gusting near 30 kts, expected Saturday afternoon primarily along
and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line. Winds shift out of the
southwest on Sunday, remaining elevated overnight into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Light north through east winds
expected today, becoming south-southeast at 10-20 mph on Saturday.
Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the Little
Colorado River Valley and White Mountains this weekend. A 15-35%
chance for light rain and mountain snow showers will arrive Saturday
evening and night.

Sunday through Tuesday...Near-normal temperatures forecast for
Sunday, becoming below normal Monday and Tuesday. Southwest winds 15-
25 mph expected on Sunday, increasing on Monday with strongest winds
Flagstaff eastward. Winds shift west-northwest at 10-20 mph on
Tuesday. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the
Little Colorado River Valley each day. Chances for rain/snow showers
return on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff