059
FXUS65 KFGZ 061044
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
344 AM MST Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry weather will continue through the
weekend and into at least early next week. Afternoon winds will
remain generally light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will remain in place through
Tuesday with little change in terms of high and low temperatures
and the light winds we`ve been seeing. A bit drier air has moved
in across the area in the mid-levels so not much in the way of
afternoon clouds over the mountains today. Mid-level moisture
increases some on Monday and Tuesday with a return of afternoon
cloudiness over the mountains.

From Wednesday onward...The high pressure aloft weakens as a
series of weak weather disturbances move across the southwest
United States. At this time the main influence appears to be a
lowering of daytime high temperatures (although still remaining
well above normal). Some strengthening of pressure gradients will
occur through the period with more persistent southwest breezes
developing toward next weekend. Even so, winds still on the light
side and likely remaining in the 5 to 15 mph range. There will be
some increase in moisture from the south and this will lead to
daily cloud buildups and the potential for virga showers or
sprinkles as early as Thursday, especially over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 06/12Z through Monday 07/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected, with localized MVFR conditions possible in
FU/HZ near area fires. Winds N/NE 5-10 kts, with locally gusty winds
up to 20 kts downwind of the terrain mainly overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 07/12Z through Wednesday 09/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected, with localized MVFR conditions possible in
FU/HZ near area fires. Winds E/SE 5-10 kts on Monday, becoming S/SW
on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Very warm and dry conditions
continue. Winds north/northeast around 10 mph today, becoming east
through south on Monday. Afternoon minimum RH values 5 to 15 percent.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions continue with slighty
cooler, but still above normal temperatures. Winds primarily
west/southwest 5 to 10 mph each afternoon. Afternoon minimum RH
values 10 to 20 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff