476
FXUS65 KFGZ 080318
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
818 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue into early next
week, with a sharp downward trend after that. Sprinkles are possible
over the Kaibab Plateau overnight, otherwise dry. Expect lighter
winds over the weekend, but gusty winds return next week, with a
possible stormy pattern developing late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Winds are slowly coming down this evening, a little
stubborn in some places due to terrain effects. Winds should keep
decreasing overnight most places, but will stay a bit elevated just
NE of higher terrain.

Moisture advected into western and central Arizona from the marine
layer has not yet materialized as low ceilings, but we will hold on
to this idea a bit longer. The possibility of a few sprinkles over
the Kaibab Plateau also remains. However, 00Z meso-scale model runs
are greatly overdoing the potential for low cloud development and
generating precipitation from a 1000 feet cloud deck is unlikely for
most other places.

The trough to our north causing this weather tonight will lift away
from the area on Saturday, allowing above normal hghts to remain in
place over Arizona. Temperatures will remain above normal as well,
with much lighter wind gradients. All in all, a very pleasant
weekend.

Overnight low temperature, wind and cloud grids look good. No updates
are needed.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 08/00Z through Sunday 09/00Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. However, some patchy MVFR CIGS may develop tonight
from the KFLG and KGCN terminals northward. ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN for
the Kaibab Plateau overnight. Sfc winds decreasing to less than
10kts by 02Z Sunday, localized gusts to 25kts possible just NE of
higher terrain. Sfc winds SW-W10-20kts on Saturday, mainly AFT 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/00Z through Tuesday 11/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers may
develop over the Kaibab Plateau tonight. For Saturday and Sunday,
expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Evening west
through southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph becoming 10 mph or less
overnight. Much lighter southwesterly winds over the weekend,
ranging from 5 to 15 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly dry but there will be slight
chances for showers on Monday and again on Wednesday. Expect cooler
daytime after Monday, with high temperatures dipping by 10 to 15
degrees. Southwest to west winds from 15 to 25 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff