163
FXUS65 KFGZ 191540
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
840 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Near-normal temperatures and breezy west/northwest
winds are expected today. Much colder and windier conditions set
in on Monday and Tuesday as a dry cold front sweeps through the
region. Warmer temperatures and lighter winds are then expected
through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Arizona remains in the upwind side of a large longwave
trough over the central United States, keeping Arizona locked into
cold and dry northwesterly flow. High temperatures this afternoon
should be within a few degrees of normal for this time of year,
along with some breezy winds later this afternoon over the higher
terrain.

Minor updates to the sky cover grids and wind grids this morning,
otherwise the overnight forecast package remains on track and in
good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /443 AM MST/...Not much change in our current
pattern as a low centered across Hudson Bay keeps a rather
pronounced longwave trough across much of the country through this
week.

Another quiet day across northern Arizona today as near normal
temperatures and generally light winds are expected.

A strong shortwave will push down through the Great Basin and into
Arizona on Monday. The shortwave is moisture starved, as has often
been the case this winter, so not expecting any kind of rain or snow
showers to develop. The wave digs down towards the southwest as it
crosses the state, with an increase in mid level energy as it moves
through. This will tighten up the pressure gradient and winds will
become strong and gusty out of the north-northeast. Winds will be
gusty through Monday afternoon with the strongest winds along and
south of the Mogollon Rim, especially Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Winds will be around 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph with
gust up around 45-50 mph possible, especially along and southwest
of the higher terrain. Potential for wind headlines exists and
will need to be watched

As the trough is digging southward, very cold air will be brought
into the region. With the lows Monday night dropping into the single
digits across a wide swath of the region and with the gusty winds in
place, wind chills will make it feel much much colder. Wind Chills
may drop down into the -10 to -20 range and it is possible we may
reach Extreme Cold Warning Criteria in a few spots so this will
need to be watched closely. Even if we do not reach criteria it
will feel extremely cold out and it would be best to start preparing
for this ahead of time, whether for yourself, your pets, or your
home.

As the shortwave pushes away from our region we start to see the
pacific high push eastward. This will allow for temperatures to
start warming and winds will become lighter. A few shortwaves will
ride down the eastern periphery of the high but will have little
impact across the region other than an increase in winds through the
end of the week. The next potential chance for some precipitation
may be over next weekend as another system makes its way towards our
area. Low confidence this far out as we have seen many storms look
great in the extended only to be disappointed when they fizzle out
in the near term.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 19/12Z through Monday 20/12Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds SW-W 10-15kts after 18Z, light
and variable Sunday night into Monday morning except KSEZ with
NE 5-10kts off the Rim.

OUTLOOK...Monday 20/12Z through Wednesday 22/12Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Dry cold front brings N-NE winds
10-20kts, gusts 25kts after about 16-17Z. Winds actually intensify
overnight, especially downslope of the Rim. Expect N-NE 15-25kts,
gusts 35-40kts. On Tuesday expect N-NE winds 10-20kts, gusts to
25kts, lightning up to N-NE 10kts Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Dry conditions with near-normal
temperatures today. A dry cold front moves through on Monday
dropping temperatures 5 to 10 degrees colder than Sunday maximums.
Winds W-SW 5-15 mph this afternoon ahead of the front, becoming
N-NE 15-25 mph on Monday behind the front.

Tuesday through Thursday...Continued dry conditions with no
precipitation expected. Temperatures remain below average on Tuesday
but warm to average on Wednesday and Thursday.  N-NE winds 10-20 mph
each day, with locally gustier winds during the overnights downwind
of the terrain.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff