535
FXUS65 KFGZ 090516
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1016 PM MST Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have already begun
this afternoon, with steadily increasing activity expected for the
next several days. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will
spread into the region from Thursday through at least late Saturday.
Areas of heavy rain likely. Some flash flooding will be possible and
a Flood Watch has been issued. Scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity then continues from Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Early moisture surges are already producing isolated
bands of showers and thunderstorms, even as far north as the I-40
corridor this afternoon. This moisture push will continue, as deep
low pressure moves southward along the west coast, then eventually
ejecting eastward by Saturday. In addition, bands of sub-tropical
moisture from a decaying tropical storm will enter the region by
Friday, with a cold front acting upon all this moisture Saturday.

This will make for a very busy set of days from Thursday through at
least Saturday, with the moisture then pushing southeastward Sunday.
Flood Watches have been issued for much of the area. A compilation
of model data indicates the most active areas will bisect the FGZ
CWA from SW to NE, where 2-4 inches of rain may fall through the
event.

Additional upstream pressure falls may cause the moisture to bounce
back northward a bit Monday and Tuesday, but not nearly as deep or
organized.

The remainder of the week will be downright cool, with brisk
southwest through westerly winds and mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 09/06Z through Friday 10/06Z...There are a
few isolated -SHRA across northern Arizona currently. VFR
conditions expected for many areas through 12Z, before increasing
chances for SHRA that will likely lead to reduced ceilings and
visibilities. Look for sustained winds out of the SE through SW
generally less than 10 kts and gusts between 15 and 20 kts
through the period. Gusty conditions will be possible with any
shower/storm.

OUTLOOK...Friday 10/06Z through Sunday 12/06Z...Widespread
SHRA/TSRA expected through the outlook period. Expect MVFR
conditions and localized IFR conditions due to continuous periods
of SHRA/RA and isolated TSRA. Winds on Friday will generally be
light, becoming S-SW at 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts on
Saturday. Gusty/erratic winds will also be possible in heavier
showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Expect widespread wetting
rains, with the highest accumulations likely through Yavapai and
Coconino counties. A Flood Watch will be in effect for most of
northern Arizona through the period. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are also possible. Winds from the south through
southeast 5-15 mph each day, but gusty and erratic winds can be
expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday through Monday...The Flood Watch continues Saturday, with
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Storm coverage becomes
isolated to scattered on Sunday and Monday. Daytime winds southwest
5-15 mph each day, but gusty and erratic winds can be expected near
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening for
AZZ004>010-012-013-015-016-018-037>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff