873
FXUS65 KFGZ 121022
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 AM MST Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue into early next
week. Moisture will be sparse, with only isolated activity through
Sunday, primarily over the eastern portions of Arizona. A gradual
uptick in moisture is forecast during the course of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will remain centered just off the
southern California coast through Tuesday. The position of the
high will place Arizona under a dry west to northwest flow. The
result will be generally hot temperatures through the period with
only limited moisture sneaking across northern Arizona. The best
chances for any decent precipitation or thunderstorms will be far
eastern Arizona.

For today...Hot, dry and locally breezy. The elevated fire danger
will continue as long as hot and locally breezy conditions
remain. Take extra precaution with any outdoor activities that
could produce sparks or flames. An Excessive Heat Warning
continues for elevations below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon.

From Sunday into Tuesday...High pressure will remain in place
with hot and mainly dry conditions continuing. Winds will remain
locally gusty in the afternoons tending from the west to
northwest at 10 to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph. A mainly dry air
mass will persist. Nocturnal low-level flow will usher in limited
moisture from over the Gulf of California which will then filter
across portions of central and northern Arizona each day. For
much of the area this will amount to increasing coverage of
afternoon cloud buildups over the higher terrain but with the
chances for any showers or thunderstorms remaining low. The main
area where a bit deeper moisture and better chances for
precipitation/storms is forecast will be the eastern Mogollon Rim
and White Mountains

From Wednesday onward...Models remain in good agreement in
shifting high pressure eastward. If so, this would open the door
to ample monsoon moisture that lies just to the south of Arizona.
If anything, recent model runs have become more agressive
concerning the high shift/increasing moisture trend bringing
better chances for showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona
earlier than previous runs.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 12/12Z through Sunday 13/12Z...VFR conditions
expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line after
18Z. Light and variable winds early becoming west to northwest at
5-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts after 17Z. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds expected near any storms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 13/12Z through Tuesday 15/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW-
KJTC line on Sunday and Monday. West winds 10-15 kts gusting
20-25 kts each day with light and variable winds during the
overnight periods. Gusty and erratic outflow winds expected near
any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Hot and mostly dry. West through
northwest afternoon winds at 10-15 mph today and Sunday. Minimum RH
of 5-10% is forecast north of the Mogollon Rim, 10-20% along and
south of the Rim each day. Low chances (10-30%) for showers and
thunderstorms are forecast along the higher terrain from Flagstaff
south and east Saturday and Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot temperatures with slowly increasing
moisture and thunderstorm chances. The best chances for showers and
thunderstorms (20-40%) will be over the higher terrain along and
south of the I-40 corridor. Minimum RH values will be between 10-20%
each day with winds out of the west at 5-15 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds can be expected near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff