183
FXUS65 KFGZ 171052
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 AM MST Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures will continue
today. Expect a slight warming trend over the weekend, with near
normal-temperatures into early next week. A passing low-pressure
is forecast to bring cooler temperatures, breezier winds, and a
10-30% chance of rain showers around of the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...For today, northern Arizona remains under the
influence of a longwave trough, which will bring another round of
dry weather and below normal daytime temperatures. Otherwise,
expect light winds and mostly sunny skies.

Beginning Saturday, there is good model agreement that high
pressure will build into the area from the southeast, leading to
a warming trend and a continuation of light winds and dry weather
into early next week.

Around Tuesday, virtually all model ensembles indicate that the
upper-level ridge will break down as a Pacific low moves inland,
likely sweeping across northern Arizona late Tuesday and
Wednesday. This low-pressure system looks to be fairly low
impact. There is high confidence northern Arizona will experience
a period of cooler temperatures and more clouds. In addition,
increased south to southwest wind speeds are forecast, but the
windiest model solutions only show gusts in the 30-35 mph range
over high terrain. At this point, chances of Advisory level wind
speeds are very low.

Forecast confidence in rainfall coverage and amounts remain low.
The current forecast is calling for a 10-30% chance of rain
showers. Drier models solutions show little to no measurable
precipitation, while wetter model solutions show amounts in the
0.25-0.35 inch range.

There is some uncertainty regarding how quickly this low will
exit the area, but on average, models favor a return of dry and
warmer weather on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 17/12Z through Saturday 18/12Z...VFR conditions.
NW-NE winds 5-10 kts, locally gusty downwind of terrain during
the overnight period.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 18/12Z through Monday 20/12Z...VFR conditions.
NW-NE winds 5-10 kts through Sunday, becoming W 10-15 kts on
Monday. Locally gusty winds downwind of the terrain during the
overnight period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry conditions with gradually
warming temperatures. NW-NE winds 5-10 mph each day. Minimum
afternoon RH 20-35% today, decreasing to 15-25% on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions
continue. South to southwest winds 5-10 mph on Sunday, then
increasing to 10-20 mph out of the west on Monday, then south to
southwest 10-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff