321
FXUS65 KFGZ 101058 RRA
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
358 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and mainly dry conditions persists through the
start of this week. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible each afternoon, primarily from the Mogollon Rim and
south. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms look to
potentially return by the middle of this week, along with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure over southern Arizona and
southern New Mexico begins to retrograde as shortwave moves
through Utah and Colorado. Dry northwesterly flow sets in across
much of the area as the high then begins to build over the Great
Basin, keeping mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures in
store. An outflow from a decaying MCS over southeastern Arizona
this morning may help to transport some moisture northward by this
afternoon to at least the Mogollon Rim and south. Otherwise, the
dry air looks to win out and keep much of the afternoon in the
clear. Breezy winds can also be expected this afternoon given the
increased pressure gradient from the nearby shortwave.

Monday and Tuesday...The high continues to strengthen through the
start of the week. With flow aloft continually pumping in drier air
from the northwest, the chances for showers and thunderstorms any
given day remain bleak. The best shot will continue to be mainly
from the Mogollon Rim and south with any potential moisture
transport from decaying convection over the Lower Deserts.

Wednesday through Saturday...Model guidance looks to gradually shift
the high further eastward through the week as a trough begins to
develop over the Pacific Northwest. This looks to potentially tilt
the odds in our favor for showers and thunderstorms near the middle
of the week. Confidence in exact coverage remains low through
however, as every day the trough moves closer, drier westerly flow
begins to set in. Cooler more seasonable temperatures look to set in
across northern Arizona as well, however this will also be somewhat
dependent upon the moisture increase and resulting cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 10/12Z through Monday 11/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible from 19Z to 02Z, mainly south and east of a
KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around TS.
Daytime winds W 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, becoming VRB 5-10
kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 11/12Z through Wednesday 13/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible from 19Z to 02Z, mainly south and east of a
KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around TS.
Daytime winds W/NW 5-15 kts on Monday, becoming W on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Hot, breezy, and mainly dry
conditions are expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon, mainly from the Mogollon Rim and south.
Winds west 10-20 mph today, becoming west/northwest 5-15 mph on
Monday. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around thunderstorms.
Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Turning cooler with increasing chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Winds west 5-15
mph each afternoon. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around
thunderstorms. Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20% on Tuesday, rising
each day to near 15-30% by Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff