964
FXUS65 KFGZ 281055
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected
to continue through much of the weekend. By late Sunday/early
Monday, cooler temperatures and slight chances for showers return
to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Similar weather that you saw for the Thanksgiving
Holiday will be around today, where daytime highs are forecast to
land a few degrees above normal and mostly dry conditions should
persist. This mild and dry weather is anticipated to stick around
through much of the weekend as well, but we`ll gradually start to
see a pattern shift by late Sunday.

A low pressure system will push southward Sunday evening/Monday
morning, looking to barely clip the Four Corners Region. For
awhile, there was potential for this system to bring more
impactful winter weather across northern Arizona, but with each
updated guidance run, the system trends more eastward. As result,
we are seeing a warmer and drier system come through. The Chuska
Mountains could see light snowfall accumulation, but outside of
this High Country location, precipitation chances look to be
10-20% along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Outside of the
potential for moisture, cooler temperatures and breezy winds will
also be associated with this low, so expect a chilly/breezy start
to next week.

The extended range forecast is a mixed bag to say the least.
Arizona should remain under a more unsettled pattern, with cooler
daytime highs and breezy afternoon winds being the main story.
There could be another winter-storm system that moves through
middle to late next week, but confidence is very low on any
precipitation chances at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 28/12Z through Saturday 29/12Z...VFR conditions
with light winds becoming W/W at 5-15 kts during the daytime
hours. Light and variable winds return after sunset.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/12Z through Monday 01/12Z...Light and
variable winds less than 10 kts on Saturday, followed by increased
SW winds 10-15 kts gusting around 25 kts on Sunday. Primarily VFR
conditions are expected, with a 20-30% chance for -SHRA/-SHSN and
MVFR conditions 00Z - 12Z Monday from KFLG northward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Dry and mild weather will
continue through Saturday. Winds will be from the southwest at 10-20
mph on Friday, decreasing to around 10 mph or less on Saturday and
more variable in direction. Maximum ventilation will reach fair to
good for a few hours each afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday...Southwest winds increase on Sunday to 15-20
mph gusting 25-30 mph in advance of a weather system approaching the
Four Corners. This system will bring a 20-30% chance for light rain
and snow showers to areas from the Mogollon Rim northward Sunday
night into Monday, along with colder temperatures Monday. Wetting
precipitation is not likely. Winds gradually shift to the north to
northeast around 10-20 mph Sunday night into Monday, and then return
to the southwest around 10-15 mph on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff