588
FXUS63 KFGF 241430
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
930 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low over
  the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Adjusted cloud cover for current trends and some scattered
cumulus later today. Otherwise, very quiet this morning with
cool temperatures in the 50s expected to climb into the 60s by
afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 712 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

We do have some cloud bands moving north to south over mainly NW
MN and the RRV. But coverage is scattered and do foresee a
scattered coverage of clouds today. No changes needed to fcst.
Patchy frost psbl in parts of NW MN Monday AM, but coverage
seems isolated-scattered and in the typical cold spots forests,
low lying areas. Not widespread enough temps to frost levels for
an advisory at this time in NW MN.  Something to watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb low is in northeast Ontario at 08z, southern parts of
Hudson Bay. One final short wave with showers moving over
Thunder Bay Ontario in Lake Superior. Skies have cleared over
most of eastern ND into much of Manitoba, with surface high
pressure in eastern Saskatchewan. This high will slowly move
east and be in central/eastern ND 12z Mon and then high
pressure center drops southeast in southwest MN. With slightly
warmer temps aloft and a few degrees cooler at the sfc, the
development of CU with afternoon heating while it will occur,
shouldn`t be enough to deviate from a partly cloudy forecast
today. North winds 15-25 mph in RRV, then much lighter Monday.
Short wave is noted moving southeast into central Saskatchewan
and that will spread some high or mid clouds into central ND
tonight.

Focus will be on low temps tonight under high pressure in E ND
and also NW MN where high isnt directly overhead but skies will
be clear and winds will decouple and become light. Some mid or
high clouds may be over areas of central and eastern ND (looking
like west of the valley) while clear sky likely in MN. Used
cooler than NBM guidance with lows at the 75th percentile (or 25
pct chance) which gives lows 36-39 in NW MN away from any bodies
of water and outside of the warmer concrete, buildings in towns.
Similarly same in northeast ND, but not as certain of the 30s
due to potential cloud cover at times. Nonetheless typical cold
spots will get down to around 35-36 it looks like by sunrise,
but how widespread will those temps be mainly in NW MN. Will
they be more prone in say forests or low lying areas in which
case frost potential is more isolated, vs widespread. End result
is no advisory for frost to be issued for tonight at this time.
Something dayshift to evaluate.

Sunny and light winds Monday and clear and cool Monday night.
Upper 30s again possible in NW MN but at that time center of
high is more southwest MN vs over NW MN and low levels warming a
tad.

Tues-Thurs dry and warming up with high temps mid 70s to around
80. Next Friday or Saturday will see some potential for a upper
trough over the area, 00z operational GFS much stronger than its
ensembles so will stay on the weaker side like ECMWF/Canadian.
NBM has a few low pops in SE ND later Fri-Sat and seems
reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered clouds today....briefly BKN at times esp over parts
of the RRV and NW MN. Ceilings may drop into the MVFR range for
a brief time but in TAFs kept mostly scattered cloud coverage
and VFR for cloud bases. North-Northwest wind 10-20 kts and
gusty in the RRV and NW MN, then near calm tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle