599
FXUS63 KFGF 161733
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low for
  the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

A few blips on radar over northeastern ND, but most of the
significant returns are further northwest over Canada. Will keep
it dry until later tonight. Adjusted cloud cover a bit, but no
major changes to what we had going.

UPDATE
Issued at 944 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Adjusted cloud cover for current satellite trends, with some
high clouds increasing near the SD border and some mid and high
clouds in northeastern ND. Some of the CAMs showing showers
developing in north central ND this afternoon and skirting our
northwestern border as they move up into Canada. However, only a
few runs show this and impacts look minimal even if we do get
some sprinkles up there. Will wait until cumulus forms before
adjusting POPs for this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Sfc high pressure was moving into eastern Minnesota at 06z and
winds over the forecast area have all turned to the southeast
8-13 kts. Some mid and high clouds over the area with west to
east upper level jet on south side of upper low in northeast
Alberta extends from Washington state to North Dakota. The upper
level flow is westerly from Alberta into Manitoba and within
this is a short wave moving toward Saskatoon with a surface cold
front. This front will move east into Manitoba and western ND
this afternoon. It will move east tonight.

A few showers with the front in Saskatchewan will move into
Manitoba today with a risk of a shower or two along the
immediate ND/MB border this aftn. Otherwise ahead of the front
today a south-southeast wind 12-25 kts, just shy of wind
advisory range. Strongest in the RRV. Gusts though to 35 kts
psbl. Warmer today with highs upper 50s to mid 60s. Drier air
residing near the sfc high in eastern Minnesota will likely try
to spread a bit west into our eastern fcst area this aftn, and
thus coord with DLH to lower dew pts from what was given by the
national model blends. Doing so with current fcst temps gives
min RH values 25-29 percent in far eastern fcst area. Small area
of 22-25 pct RH for a time Baudette-Waskish area but based on
current dew pt and temp fcst the area where this occurs is quite
limited at this time and therefore no near critical wording for
fire wx will be used for north central MN within the FGF
forecast area. If temps are 1-2 deg warmer or dew pts 1-2 deg
lower then that area from Baudette to Park Rapids may indeed
move into the near critical range with RH blo 25 pct. Despite
winds not as strong in that area.

Meanwhile a second short wave will move more south-southeast
from B.C. into the central Rockies by late Thursday. As this
occurs and 500 mb trough deepens over the Rockies, flow aloft
becomes more southwest heading into Thursday allowing for
increased moisture to move northeast. This will bring our chance
for showers. Latest guidance suggests deeper moisture will
bypass our area to the east/southeast...and thus rainfall
amounts have continued to lower with most locations well under
0.25 inch amounts. A brief period of instability Thursday
morning into west central MN so a risk of a t-storm is present.
The rain chances taper off in the mid to late aftn/eve from west
to east. Overall rain amounts from this system will have no
impacts.

Colder and windier weather Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions for now with increasing high and mid clouds
through the evening. South winds will continue to gust above 25
kts at most of the airports through the afternoon, then start
to decrease and become more southeasterly this evening. There
will be a sharp wind shift to the north as a cold front comes
down during the early morning hours. Some models bring some MVFR
ceilings behind the front and showers with it. However, not
confident enough to include rain in the TAFs at this point and
just kept the MVFR ceilings at KBJI where there is the most
consistency.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR