860
FXUS63 KFGF 160308
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1008 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region tonight
  into Thursday. The main hazard from thunderstorms will be
  lightning. Soaking rainfall may impact harvest operations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Seeing the broken band of thunderstorms in SW South Dakota
slowly ease north with this expected to fill in to the east with
the sparse activity in the SE part of South Dakota and NW Iowa
over the coming hours. Thunderstorms (non severe) can be
expected along the MN/ND/SD tri-state are by 4am with the
traversing the Red River Valley and remainder of the forecast
area by 10am. Only hazard will be lightning thankfully with some
cams really starting to jump on the trend of some higher totals.
NAM3k showing a nice swath of 1-2" from JMS to GFK to BDE as a
potential scenario but those kind of accumulations remain an
the outlier at the moment across a multitude of models and
ensembles.


UPDATE
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A messy day in store for tomorrow surely but minimal change to
the actual forecast with rain still looking to expand SW to NE
around midnight across the region with > 1/4 inch for most north
of HWY 200. wouldn`t be surprised if a few locations north of
HWY 2 got over 1" (50% chance) but only for maybe 10% of the
region with point probabilities low due to the convective
nature.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery reveals upper longwave trough over the
West/Great Basin, with upper ridging over the Plains. At the
surface, the Dakotas and Minnesota are on the cool side of a
warm front draped over the Central Plains, keeping conditions
cool, cloudy, with periods of drizzle and fog. This will
continue into tonight. Fog may be dense late tonight/Thursday
morning in North Dakota with the help of easterly upslope flow.

Water vapor also reveals a jet max rounding the base of the
upper trough near the Four Corners region. This will migrate
into the Dakotas tonight and Thursday, developing a low
pressure system that will result in widespread precipitation.
Increased moisture and steepening lapse rates aloft amid
strong forcing will also contribute to thunderstorms.

As the system deepens, ensemble guidance strongly favors some
semblance of a dry slot to overspread our area by Thursday
night, ending accumulating rainfall chances for our area.
Getting into Friday, the system migrates into Canada, with a
sweeping cold front and accompanying breezy winds spreading
throughout the region. Shallow convective layer along with some
residual moisture may allow scattered rain showers to develop at
least Friday morning.

This weekend into next week, ensemble guidance depicts a rather
progressive upper pattern featuring shortwave trough/ridge wave
packets traversing the northern tier of the CONUS in a rather
west to east fashion. This will promote periodic chances for
precipitation as well as swinging temperature trend from average
to above average. This however also decreases predictability
markedly starting early next week, lowering confidence in
degree of temperature anomalies as well as details regarding
precipitation chances. As of now, there are no significant
signals for winter precipitation, although cannot be ruled out
at this time.


...Thunderstorms and rainfall tonight/Thursday...

Current ensemble and high resolution guidance favors surface low
to deepen within North Dakota, keeping highest rainfall amounts
on its northern and western flanks. This should serve to keep
synoptically-driven rainfall (like deformation zone precip) west
of the Devils Lake basin. However, convection tonight driven by
WAA amid weak low level jet will result in at least pockets of
0.5-1.5 inch rainfall - relatively best chance for these
highest amounts within our area are north of US Highway 2. While
all areas have a high chance at seeing a wetting rainfall, these
areas hold best chance at seeing soaking rainfall. This may
continue to impact harvest operations around the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Poor flying conditions through the taf period with ceilings
lowering tonight widely into low MVFR and even pockets of IFR in
eastern North Dakota affecting mainly FAR and DVL. Rain moving
in between 05z and 9z for all sites with lingering showers
into Friday. Vis variable across sites tonight but where heavier
rain occurs expecting some lower vis in the 2-4sm range and even
some fog possible but rain will likely be the bigger driver of
visibility problems. Some thunder is also likely to be embedded
with FAR the only site currently not looking to be impacted by
potential lightning. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 MPH
near FAR after 21z tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT