318
FXUS63 KFGF 081616
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1016 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow spreads east thru the area tonight into Thursday
  mainly between Midnight and Noon. There is a 10 percent chance
  for minor winter impacts with this system due to light snow
  and patchy blowing snow.

- There is a 20 percent chance for winter impacts this weekend
  in association with another system. This will bring another
  round of light snow to the area but details on where are still
  uncertain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Near term forecast through today remains the same, with mostly
to partly cloud skies, and relatively warmer temperatures
compared to recent days.

Previous thoughts on upcoming snow and associated chance for
minor impacts remains the same (i.e. low at around 10%).

UPDATE
Issued at 716 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

06z model data suggest forecast on track. Will need to keep an
eye out on timing of snow moving in. Most models are a bit
slower than our timing in the grids.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...Synopsis...

Progressive WNW flow at 500 mb into the weekend with two main
short waves to move through giving light snow chances. One
Thursday and the other Saturday.

One stratocu cloud area is moving east thru northern MN with
clearing of these clouds reaching Roseau-Thief River Falls-Ada
at 09z. A small area of IFR/MVFR clouds moving east as well from
Brandon Manitoba to Devils Lake to Jamestown. Clear in between
these two in the RRV as of 09z. After these cloud patches move
through there will considerable high and mid clouds drop
southeast in the sfc-850 mb warm advection zone.

850 mb temps forecast to reach just above 0C in E ND/RRV by mid
to late aftn but surface warming will take a bit longer and hold
off til overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Temps in
Alberta in the 30s and low 40s in mild zone and this airmass
will cool a bit but head toward our area with highs on Thursday
mid 20s to around 30. Accompanied this milder air will be a band
of light snow. One 500 mb short wave moves into southern B.C.,
southern Alberta and into Montana today and quickly southeast
from there with mixed precipitation mainly heading thru Montana
into Wyoming and parts of western ND. A second short wave will
move thru southern Manitoba and into North Dakota Thursday with
a surface cold front and a wind shift from the south to the
northwest Thursday. A band of light snow anticipated ahead of
this front and short wave entering DVL basin by midnight and
spreading east overnight thru Thursday morning. A fast moving
area of 700 mb frontogenesis is located with this wave with
strongest near SD/MN/ND border area 12z Thu. This snow area will
bring up to 1 inch of snow to all areas (50 percent chance) and
15 percent chance of 2 inches in far SE ND into WC MN.

Gusty northwest winds behind surface front will move into E ND
Thu AM and into the RRV midday and aftn with forecast soundings
from NAM and GFS showing peak wind gust potential 30-35 kts.
This combined with any lingering falling snow and some of the
light snow that has fallen may lead to patchy blowing snow. But
given the lack of any current snow to blow around, the 10 pct
chance of minor impacts mentioned in key messages seems
reasonable.

Ptype could be a mix of fzra/sn for a time this evening in far
west fcst area (mainly Cando to DVL and west) but soundings
there for DVL show saturation will occur with temperature in
column blo 0C so thinking any wintry mix would be brief.

...Weekend....

A stronger 500 mb wave will move onshore into B.C. and move
east-southeast into southern Saskatchewan and into southern ND
Saturday. Surface low associated with this feature. Track of
upper system and sfc low still a bit uncertain but ensembles and
model blends favor a track more thru NW into SE ND and thus
higher precip chances in this area. Probs for 2 inches or more
from NBM are in the 20-25 percent range NW to SE ND. Winds from
this dont look like much at the moment. But 700 mb frontogensis
from the GFS 00z run shows a decent band that does linger from
Minot to Fargo Saturday. So this system will need to be watched
as it has potential to be a bit more impactful.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Patches of stratocu (MVFR predominate) moving thru the RRV into
MN to start the day. But outside of these areas will likely see
mid and high clouds dominate the late morning into this evening
as a south-southwest wind increases with gusts over 20 kts in
the RRV this afternoon. Risk of light snow and lower ceilings
arrive 06z and after into E ND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle