081
FXUS63 KFGF 050014
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
614 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slowly decreasing winds will lead to improving visibilities
  through the evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Radar imagery still shows a few convective streamers across the
FA. The longest one extends from western Walsh County all the
way southeast through the Fargo-Moorhead area. There are a few
others along the highway 2 corridor from Crookston through
Lakota. These extend down through the highway 200 and Interstate
94 corridor as well. If a person is driving along these east-
west corridors, they will continue to encounter some reduced
visibilities. These streamers always take a little longer than
expected to diminish, usually into the mid to late evening.
Considered extending the Winter Weather Advisory, but overall
winds are going down and visibilities are generally improving.
Generally expect partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Upper low continues to dig into WI, with northwesterly surface
winds, cold air advection, and periodic snow showers continuing
on the backside of the departing system across our area. Plenty
of HCRs still visible on satellite loop, and several still
evident on radar. Those rolls along with some more cellular
showers, rapidly drop visibility when they arrive at a location.
Visibility at many of our sites have been staying around 1/2 or
even 1/4 mile as the HCRs have lingered a bit longer than
expected. However, there has been some movement and web cams
continue to show a mix of perfectly fine visibility and very
bad. Will continue to keep the winter weather advisory going,
with the messaging that some areas could see near blizzard
conditions until around sunset. Should finally see winds drop
tonight as the surface high builds into the Plains, with cold
temperatures mostly below zero.

Northwesterly flow and quiet conditions through the end of the
work week, with some weak embedded shortwaves moving through.
Some strong warm air advection for the weekend as flow shifts to
a more southwesterly direction ahead of the next upper trough.
That system comes through Sunday night into Monday with the
chance for some more wintery precipitation and more cold air
coming down for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The biggest question over the next few hours is how quickly winds
will subside, along with areas of falling snow. When these two are
combined, visibility is still being reduced from 4 to 7 miles down
to a mile or two, bringing aviation impacts. The expectation is
these showers will end by 3z, resulting in MVFR conditions across
the area. Ceilings will slowly rise overnight into Thursday, first
at KDVL, then working east to our other sites. After strong
northwest winds die down this evening into the overnight, they will
start pivoting to the west, eventually to the southwest by Thursday
afternoon. Winds will be much lighter Thursday, under ten knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty