330
FXUS63 KFGF 300854
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
354 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds continue today across the Devils Lake Basin,
  eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

- Red Flag conditions are expected across portions of
  southeastern North Dakota, the southern Red River Valley, and
  west central Minnesota.

- Widespread frost is possible Thursday night into Friday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...Synopsis...

H5 upper low pressure moves eastward across central portions of
Saskatchewan and Manitoba today, with a deep trough extending
southward into the Northern and Central Plains. Ahead of this
trough, a strong low level jet continues to facilitate gusty south
winds across much of the area.


...Gusty Winds Continue Through this Afternoon...

Momentum transfer overnight has been attenuated by an inversion in
the low levels; however, gusts have still been able to reach into
the 30 - 40 mph range. Winds at the 850mb level are rather high,
upwards of 65-75 knots, with the axis of strongest winds moving
across the Red River Valley around Sunrise, then into northwest
Minnesota by midday. Look for an increase in wind gust potential as
the morning progresses, with winds initially out of the south in
association with the low level jet. The cold front follows later
this morning, moving west to east through the remainder of the day.
Along the front, winds will diminish; however, steep pressure rises
following the front will bring another round of gusty winds out
of the west/northwest this afternoon.

...Critical Fire Weather Today...

Continued gusty winds will combine with low RH values today,
allowing the development of critical fire weather. We could see RH
values as low as 20 percent by around midday across portions of
southeastern North Dakota, the southern Red River Valley, and parts
of west central Minnesota. Regarding the winds, look for a
substantial wind shift as a cold front moves across the area from
west to east starting late this morning. Gusty south winds precede
the front; however, a period of lower winds will accompany the front
before west to northwest winds pick up rapidly behind the front.

...Frost Possible Thursday Night into Friday Morning...

Cooler temperatures are expected starting late this evening, with
another round of cooler air settling into the Northern Plains by mid
week. Look for lows to fall into the 30s across much of the area
Thursday night and Friday morning, which could facilitate frost
development in many areas. The coolest lows are expected to be in
the Devils Lake Basin, where temperatures could fall into the low
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. The main aviation concerns will be
gusty winds that will shift form the south-southeast to the
west-northwest through the TAF period as a front moves through
the region, along with a period of low level wind shear as
50-60kt low level jet progresses east ahead of this front. There
may be a brief lull in the strongest winds near the front but
this should be short lived. Gusts 35-40kt can be expected at
times ahead of and behind the front in eastern ND and
potentially as far east as KTVF. A few stronger gusts greater
than 40kt may occur at KDVL, but confidence isn`t as high at
this time.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-054.
     Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ039-049-052-053.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022.
     Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ002-003-015>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR