282
FXUS63 KFGF 060246
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
  especially west of the Red River. Hazards could include half
  dollar sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday across
  parts of northwest Minnesota.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday.
  Significant severe storms are possible both days, with hazards
  including large hail, significant damaging wind gusts, and
  isolated tornadoes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Complex of thunderstorms continues to push through the southern
Red River Valley into west central MN. While most of the
convective wind reports and brief mesovortices have ended, heavy
rain and lightning continue. Winds have picked up in the wake of
the system, gusting to 40s or even 50 mph at times. This should
continue to push east and weaken as the storms move into less
unstable air. Adjusted POPs and winds for current trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Complex of thunderstorms beginning to enter southeastern ND, so
made some adjustments to POPs for current trends. There has been
a weakening trend as storms move into slightly less unstable
air, but there is still decent effective shear to work with and
could still see hail up to quarters and winds up to 70 mph as
cells move into our area. Biggest threat will likely be heavy
rain, as portions of south central ND have already seen up to 5
inches in the last few hours and storms will continue to move
slowly into southeastern ND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...Synopsis...

A mid level shortwave continues moving across the area today,
bringing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few
severe thunderstorms are possible. This shortwave moves east
overnight, and could bring additional severe storms into northwest
Minnesota on Wednesday. An H5 upper low, situated in southern
Saskatchewan, is the main contributor of energy as the H7 waves form
along southwest flow. This will lift northeast late Wednesday with
another shortwave approaching heading into Thursday. The environment
will be quite supportive of severe thunderstorms both Thursday and
on Friday as an upper low pushes a strong theta-e gradient boundary,
and the resultant cold front, across the area. A warming trend
prevails through Thursday, with afternoon highs in the 80s Wednesday
and upper 80s to low 90s Thursday.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Evening...

Instability continues to build into the Northern Plains this
afternoon, with a weak shortwave traversing the region from west to
east. Soundings indicate favorable shear profiles to allow a mention
of supercells, albeit with only moderate CAPE values. There is the
potential for hail up to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to
60 mph.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday...

A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms continues on Wednesday,
mainly for areas of northwest Minnesota. Hazards could include
wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. A
lingering H7 shortwave will provide an axis of development east
of the Red River Valley in northwest Minnesota.

...Significant Severe Storms Possible Thu and Fri...

Moisture levels continue to increase Thursday and Friday, with
SBCAPE values climbing upwards of 3000-4000 J/Kg. Thursday,
soundings support the chance for significant wind as steep mid-level
lapse rates and DCAPE upwards of 1400 J/Kg have been consistent in
recent Model runs. Significant damaging wind gusts, of 75 mph or
greater, are possible along with large hail. Low to mid level shear
support at least a mention of isolated tornado potential along the
leading edge of an H7 shortwave. Most of the area could potentially
be impacted, with the best chances in northeast North Dakota and the
central Red River Valley. Heading into Friday, a cold moves closer
to the area as H5 troughing deepens in the southern Canadian Plains.
SBCAPE in some model soundings exceeds 4000 J/Kg, with a probability
of exceeding 4000 J/Kg coming in around 90 percent, especially in
the southern Red River Valley. Given the current model soundings,
all modes and all hazards are worth mentioning; however, significant
wind potential remains quite high comparatively.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

All sites currently VFR, but will see a decrease in category
along with vicinity showers and thunderstorms as a complex moves
in from south central ND in the next few hours. Best chances for
thunder and heavier rain will be in the KFAR area, but all sites
should see at least some showers. Behind the convection,
ceilings down into the MVFR to IFR range will be possible, along
with a few lingering showers at the MN airports. Some
improvement by the end of the period. Winds will be out of the
southeast with some gusts up to 20 kts at times, then shifting
more southwesterly by tomorrow at the ND airports.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR