010
FXUS63 KFGF 121503
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter impacts are expected this weekend as a strong storm
  system brings freezing rain, heavy snow, strong winds, and
  blowing snow into the region. The probability for winter storm
  impacts remains at 40 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Still getting patchy fog hanging on at Langdon, Devils Lake,
although it is starting to come up at Cooperstown. While web
cams are pretty hit and miss, there is still enough fog out
there to cause some minor travel impacts so extended the SPS
through 18Z. Should see it burning off by mid-day as most CAMs
have vis improving by that point.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Patchy fog is forming west of the Red River Valley this morning,
mainly north of the Highway 200 Corridor. Visibility down to
1/4 mile is being observed at times in Langdon, Devils Lake, and
Cooperstown. This will likely continue through around mid
morning due to good radiational cooling as cloud cover
diminishes over parts of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Look for a wide range of weather today through next week as weak
ridging brings warmer temperatures into the area today into
Thursday. H5 upper flow begins to shift as we head into Thursday as
the ridge axis traverses the central CONUS, and troughing develops
west of the Rockies. As this troughing progresses east, low pressure
is expected to develop in the southern Rockies and Intermountain
West, eventually leading to the development of a closed low by
Friday morning. As the low rapidly deepens, moisture, as well as
very warm air, is ushered northward into the Midwest, Northern
Plains, and Upper Midwest. This will set the stage for our next
system that is expected to impact the region Friday into Saturday.
An active pattern will continue to bring precipitation chances into
the area through the middle of next week.

...Winter Impacts Develop this Weekend...

Heading into Friday, deep moisture advects into the region ahead of
a Colorado low. Rain chances increase quickly during the afternoon,
with a few thunderstorms possible for areas mainly east of the Red
River. The H5 upper low will still be deepening at this point, with
some guidance suggesting occlusion and very warm air at 850mb
remaining in place through much of Friday afternoon and evening.
Any change over to snow will depend on the temperature profile
heading into Saturday morning, with the most likely change over
to snow happening around daybreak. Once the change over occurs,
likely preceded by freezing rain and/or a wintry mix, moderate
snowfall rates will combine with increasing northwest winds to
create a potentially hazardous scenario that could include
blizzard conditions. Northwest winds are expected to range from
25 to 35 mph with gusts upwards of 50 mph. Snowfall amounts
will be challenging due to the expectation of a very sharp
cutoff from west to east. Early indications of banding are also
evident on the northwest and west side of the upper low. There
are still a few variables worth noting, including the forward
speed of the system, with ensemble members still struggling to
find consensus regarding timing. A slower system will bring
higher snowfall totals and longer duration of blowing snow and
the associated impacts. At this time, there is a 60 percent
chance for 2 or more inches of snow, with a 40 percent chance
for 4 inches or more Saturday through early Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Patchy dense fog is expected through mid morning at and around
KDVL, with VFR conditions at all other TAF sites. There is a low
chance for this fog to expand slightly eastward as cloud cover
diminishes over the area. Otherwise, look for generally light
and variable winds across the region through this evening before
winds increase slightly heading into the overnight hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch