152
FXUS63 KFGF 052343
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
643 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy today into tonight bringing wind-related impacts.
  Wind gusts around 60 mph will continue late this afternoon
  into early evening, highest confidence in northeast North
  Dakota. There is a 20% chance of seeing 60 mph elsewhere
  between 7 PM and 1 AM tonight.

- Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon into
  early evening in southeast North Dakota, portions of the Red
  River Valley, and into west-central Minnesota. Near critical
  fire weather conditions rest of Minnesota and North Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Continued to see observations of up to 60mph winds within the
Red River Valley this evening. Went ahead and upgraded the Wind
Advisory within the valley to a High Wind Warning through 1am.
As we look upstream, we continue to see reports in southern
Manitoba and north central ND of 50 to 60mph gusts. This will
spread southward as we head through the evening as strong cold
air advection works its way down from Canada. Temperatures are
already dropping in Towner, Pembina, and Cavalier counties this
evening, indicating that CAA is already moving down as we
speak. As the winds remain strong, we will continue to see
blowing dust across eastern ND and into northwestern MN. This
may reduce visibilities at times. The Red Flag Warning goes
through 10pm. Fire weather conditions will start to improve as
RH values start to increase post sunset. We will continue to
monitor the winds through the evening as well as the critical
fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...Synopsis...

Strong, progressive upper trough is viewable via water vapor
satellite imagery moving east through SK/MB/Dakotas. The strong
dynamics associated with this system is bringing very wind
conditions across these areas, including wind gusts in the 50-70
mph being observed earlier today in many locations within ND.
These winds will continue through the afternoon.

A cold front then moves through from the northwest late
afternoon into this evening starting in northeast ND around
sunset. This will bring another surge of gusty winds over 45
mph to much of the area. More details on wind and related impact
potential, including potential to see 60 mph wind gusts across
our area, can be found below.

Dry slot associated with this upper trough is overspread across
the Dakotas, pushing its way into MN. This is allowing ample
sunshine this afternoon amid very dry air mass. This dry air
mass coupled with gusty winds is bringing critical fire weather
conditions to our area this afternoon. More information on this
can be found below.

Precipitation wrapping around the circulation associated with
the upper trough is forecast to bring light rain/sprinkles to
areas near Lake of the Woods tonight into Sunday, with some
enhancement from lake-effect processes given cold enough air
over relatively warm waters of the lake. Snow is very unlikely
given the likelihood of temperatures over 40 degrees during this
timeframe.

Today`s upper trough exits to the east Sunday, with some breezy
winds lingering, along with ample cloud cover to start the day.

Getting into next week, most ensemble guidance agrees in upper
ridge building into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
promoting dry conditions and above to very above average
temperatures. Guidance like the European eNsemble System`s (ENS)
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) illustrates this likelihood of
above average temperatures with probabilities of 70% or greater
into our area Wednesday and Thursday with a Shift of Tails
(SOT) between 0-1 intermingled in these areas. This translates
to likely daytime temperatures into the 70s and 80s by the end
of next workweek. Chance for 80 or higher currently sits at over
70% of occurring for areas like southeast ND into west- central
MN on Thursday.

...Very Windy Today and Tonight...

Wind-related impacts from winds in the 40-70 mph are expected
for our entire area this afternoon into evening. Confidence is
high in widespread gusts 45 mph or higher across our entire area
between 7 PM and 1 AM. There is a 20% chance in gusts 60 mph or
higher across our entire area during this timeframe, too.

Widepsread high wind gusts out of the west over 50 mph continue
to be observed within eastern North Dakota, and are forecast to
continue through the rest of the afternoon. The driver of these
winds can be attributed to daytime heating in a dry air mass
tapping into winds over 45 kt aloft. Gusts between 60-65 mph
are also being observed early this afternoon in the Devils Lake
basin. This is expected to continue through the afternoon.

Gusts to 70 mph may not be out of the question late
afternoon/early evening within the Devils Lake basin. Should
this occur, the potential for wind-related damage to vegetation
and structures increases compared to current 50-60 mph wind
gusts.

While typically sunset would mark the start of decreasing winds
with loss of mixing from daytime heating, a secondary cold
front moving out of SK/MB through our area holds an impressive
amount of cold air advection behind it. Deep to around 800 mb,
moderate-strong cold air advection behind the front will help
transfer winds aloft to the surface, of which ranges 40-55kt
aloft as it sweeps southeast throughout our entire area. For
this reason, wind headlines were expanded across our entire CWA,
lasting into tonight.

There may be a brief overlap between relatively stronger cold
air advection with winds over 60 mph at 850mb. As such,
wouldn`t be surprised to see high wind warning criteria-winds
in areas like southeast ND, the Red River Valley, into northwest
and west-central MN. Should this occur, these higher-end winds
should come in more of a localized fashion. There is generally
around a 20% chance of this occurring.

Gusty winds 45 mph or greater are forecast for the tree-areas
of Minnesota tonight, including the aforementioned potential
for gusts to 60 mph. Given most trees still have full or nearly
full foliage, the risk from damage to trees and/or resultant
from trees is higher than compared to later in the fall season
when trees do not have foliage.

Blowing dust from dry, freshly tilled agricultural fields may
also develop in portions of eastern ND into the Red River Valley
this afternoon, potentially bringing localized travel impacts
from reducing visibility.

...Fire Weather Conditions Today...

Current observations of RH values in the 20-30 percent range
collocated with gusty winds are contributing to critical fire
weather conditions for portions of southeast ND, the Red River
Valley, into west-central MN. These conditions will continue
through the afternoon into early evening, with a Red Flag
Warning in affect through 9 PM for areas holding highest
potential for rapid fire spread.

Underlining the fire weather conditions, several thermal
signatures associated with wild fires are viewable via
satellite within portions of central and western ND this
afternoon.

Gusty winds will continue tonight (see details on this above),
although RH values will be on the decrease closely following
sunset.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Strong winds continue to affect the TAF locations this evening.
We continue to see reports of up 50kt winds within the Devils
Lake Basin. Up to 50kt winds will be possible within the Red
River Valley as well through the evening hours. These winds will
be out of the west, sustained around 20 to 30kts. BJI will see
lighter winds, but have the chance to see up to 35kts through
6z. Winds slowly start to diminish post 6z, but remain on the
breezy side. Sustained winds between 6z and 18z will be 15-20kts
in eastern ND and northwestern MN, with gusts 25 to 30kts. Post
18z we will see wind gusts drop off, with winds becoming light
near the end of the TAF period for all sites.

Otherwise, we will be seeing MVFR ceilings for DVL, GFK, BJI,
and TVF 3z through 15z as a BKN to OVC cloud deck moves along
Highway 2. Post 15z clouds will start to dissipate and ceilings
improve.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ016-027-
     029-030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ001>004-007-029.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>003-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ005-008-013-014.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ006-009-015>017-
     022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Spender