220
FXUS63 KFGF 030828
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight
  into early Friday morning. Main hazards include hail to the
  size of ping pong balls and winds to 70 mph.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Friday afternoon and evening (Fourth of July). Main hazards
  include large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding.

- Potential for heat related impacts Friday (Fourth of July) as
  heat indices approach the lower 100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Current conditions across the area have upper level clouds moving in
from the west through the morning, with temperatures hovering in the
60s. Lingering smoke continues to be possible near the Canadian
border through the morning before winds increase out of the south-
southeast helping to push smoke back up into Canada. Patchy dense
fog will also be possible in the Sheyenne River Valley this morning
reducing visibility at times.

Upper level ridging continues across the northern plains, with mid
level shortwaves moving along the ridge. These bring chances for
thunderstorms tonight and again on Friday (Fourth of July). The
first round of thunderstorms develop in eastern MT, southern
Saskatchewan, and western ND late this afternoon and evening and
tracks eastward into eastern ND by the overnight period. Level 2 out
of 5 risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. Main impacts will be
large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging wind gusts up to
70mph. The front associated with the mid level system tracks through
our area Friday, with another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms late Friday afternoon through the evening hours. Main
impacts will be large hail, damaging winds, and potential flash
flooding. The thunderstorms have the possibility of training over
the same locations during the evening and overnight hours Friday.
This brings the threat for potential flash flooding. Ahead of the
system temperatures will be warm, with highs in the 80s to mid 90s
both today and again on Friday. Dewpoints reach into the 60s and
lower 70s both days bringing heat indices to the upper 90s and
potential lower 100s. Heat related impacts will be a potential both
today and again Friday. If you are headed outside make sure to stay
hydrated.

Ridge begins to flatten out across the northern plains over the
weekend, with temperatures returning to near seasonal averages.
Slight chance for showers or an isolated thunderstorms Saturday,
with drying conditions for Sunday. The ridge remains flat across the
plains next week, with chances for shortwaves to track across and
bring additional chances for showers and storms. Temperatures will
hover in the 70s to lower 80s next week.

...Severe Risk Tonight...

Mid level shortwave moves through eastern MT, southern Saskatchewan,
and western ND this afternoon and evening with a warm front
extending through ND. Moderate to strong instability increases as we
push warm moist area from the southern United States into the
northern plains. MUCAPE reaches up to 3500 J/kg out west, with 0-6km
shear around 30-40kts. Thunderstorms develop later this afternoon
and evening out west and track eastward into the Devils Lake Basin
by the overnight hours. Storms start out as discrete and quickly
grow upscale through the evening. As they reach the Devils Lake
Basin we should see them start to form a linear complex increasing
the threat for damaging winds. CAMS are in fairly good agreement
with the transition to linear storm mode as the storms enter the
northwestern parts of the forecast area. They have less certainty
with the widespread nature of the linear complex and how far south
it gets. Right now a majority (70 percent of them) have the linear
complex moving through northeastern ND overnight and into the early
morning hours Friday reaching north central MN near the 6-9z time
frame Friday. Winds will be the main hazard as the storm goes
linear, but early on large hail will also be a threat. Low chance of
tornadoes within our area as storms will be non discrete and grow
upscale rather quickly. Uncertainty in the strength of the complex
as it reaches northern MN during the early morning hours Friday as
instability is lost and DCAPE diminishes.

There exists a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for
the Devils Lake Basin through northeastern ND and into northwestern
MN tonight into early Friday morning. Main hazards will be large
hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds of 70mph.
Otherwise, the strong surge of moisture from the south will help
increase our dew points into the 60s to lower 70s today and
temperatures into the 80s to lower 90s. Heat related impacts are a
potential this afternoon, but winds should help mitigate the impacts
as they will be breezy out of the south-southeast.

...Fourth of July Forecast...

The warm front shifts further eastward Friday, with warm moist area
continuing to push into the region. Temperatures reach the upper 80s
to lower 90s for daytime highs and dew points reach the lower 70s.
Heat related impacts are possible during the afternoon and evening
as heat indices reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. Area to see the
best chances for heat indices in the lower 100s will be in the Red
River Valley where there exists a 40 percent chance of occurrence. If
you are headed out during the day and evening on Friday the Fourth
make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade.

A cold front associated with the deepening low pressure system in ND
pushes into eastern ND during the afternoon and evening hours.
Strong instability, shear, and flow from the south will increase the
chances for showers and storms to develop along and ahead of the
front. CAMS have already start to pick up on these storms clustering
quickly and growing upscale. They develop in central ND and track
eastward into eastern ND during the later afternoon and early
evening hours. There exists a level 1 out of 5 risk for isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon through
overnight hours Friday. Main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Flash flooding will be a potential as well as strong moisture
from the south and storms stalling out along the cold front will
increase the risk for higher rainfall rates. Storms may train over
the same locations for several hours leading to potential flash
flooding. Have multiple ways to receive alerts over the holiday
especially if you are headed out during the later evening hours to
watch fireworks.

Post Friday, we are looking at lingering chances for showers and
isolated storms Saturday, with temperatures returning to seasonal
averages. Next week, temperatures remain near seasonal, with further
chances for showers and storms on and off in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions with some high clouds starting to move in from
the west. Light and variable winds overnight will steady out of
the southeast by morning, with gusts above 20 kts possible in
some spots. Gusts will drop off but increasing low level wind
shear probabilities by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...JR