124
FXUS63 KFGF 272023
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
323 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For Highway 2 corridor and north late tonight into Friday,
  there will be up to a few tenths of an inch of ice, or less
  ice and over 3 inches of snow. For either scenario, there will
  be winter impacts and a winter weather advisory is in effect.

- 20 percent chance of minor (advisory) impacts from snowfall
  and light icing Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...Synopsis...

Near zonal flow over the Northern Plains will become more
southwesterly overnight, with a lead shortwave tracking along
the Canadian border. This will start a bit of precipitation
tonight, but the stronger shortwave will come in during the day
on Friday. Still some variation in where the coldest air ends
up, but mixed precipitation is expected. Another shortwave will
travel through the southern branch and clip our southeastern
counties Saturday into Sunday. Flow will become northwesterly
for a brief period at the start of the work week, and then
another shortwave on Tuesday. The active pattern continues
into Wednesday and Thursday.

...Mixed precipitation late tonight into Friday...

Temperatures got pretty warm in our southern counties this
afternoon, rising into the 50s, while portions of far
northeastern ND has been below freezing so far. Will continue to
see some low level cold air in the northern counties, but warmer
air in the 925 to 850mb range will push towards the
international border overnight. Probabilities of freezing rain
are fairly robust, around 40 percent, along and north of Highway
2. There will be mixed precipitation, just a question of what
kind and how much. Currently most of the ensemble members keep
the best 850-700mb frontogenesis just north of Canadian border,
and therefore best snow. However, some outliers drop some pretty
heavy amounts of snow in our northern counties. NBM blend leans
more heavily towards freezing rain and ice, and probabilities of
over 0.25 inches (ice storm warning criteria), are up around 40
percent. However, if the precip changes to snow a bit faster
than the mean, there will be less ice and more accumulation,
maybe even up to 3 to 6 inches. With either the ice or the snow
scenario, there will be travel impacts. Expanded the winter
weather advisory a bit further south to include the entire
Highway 2 corridor.

...Saturday snow and possible freezing drizzle...

Between the northern shortwave and the southern shortwave coming
through on Saturday, model soundings continue to show
favorability for freezing drizzle. This could even be south of
Highway 2, but confidence is not high enough to include in the
headline at this point. The southern shortwave crossing from SD
into southern MN could bring a few inches of snow, mainly to
west central MN. However, chances for more than 3 inches are
only around 20 percent. At this point will wait and see if an
advisory is needed for beyond Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions for the first part of the period as more high and
mid clouds come in from the northwest. Later tonight into
tomorrow morning, expecting some MVFR and then possibly IFR
ceilings to come in as the system approaches. Could see some
rain or even freezing rain across the north, but not confident
enough to include FZRA mention in the TAFs quite yet. For now
have visibility down to 2SM at the lowest, but some guidance is
a bit lower so will keep an eye on things. Winds will shift
around from the northeast to the east and then pick back up to
above 12 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for
     MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013>017.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     MNZ006-009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR