642
FXUS63 KFGF 071159
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday
  afternoon into the early evening across eastern North Dakota
  and parts of northwestern Minnesota. Wind gusts up to 60 mph
  is the main threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Patchy fog has formed within portions of southeast ND into
west-central MN, of which has been reported and observed to be
dense. This will continue to be the case before diminishing by 9
am. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery early this morning reveals weak upper
ridging over the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota ahead of a stout
upper low diving southward over the Canadian High Plains toward
the Northern Plains. This stout upper low and its attendant
cold front will drive high chance (80%) for showers and
thunderstorms as well as the chance for strong to severe storms
this afternoon into early evening. More details found below.

This cold front will bring gusty winds ahead and behind the
front, particularly post-frontal winds Sunday. Ahead of the
front today, southwest winds gust to around 30 mph, with post-
frontal northwest winds gusting to 30-50 mph are forecast
Sunday. Given the strength of winds aloft, efficient daytime
mixing as well as tightened pressure gradient from the deepening
surface low moving through the region, gusts near the upper
range closer to 50 mph can be anticipated, particularly within
eastern North Dakota for areas like Devils Lake basin and
Sheyenne River Valley. Additionally, given the strong nature of
this cold front, effective mixing of winds aloft will even occur
overnight tonight. Given full foliage on trees, this may cause
some minor wind impacts Sunday, mainly in the form of downed
small branches, with the necessity of wind headlines possible.

As the upper low moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region, it slows its forward progression as it deepens. This
will linger forcing for showers and weak thunderstorms Sunday
and perhaps Monday within Minnesota. Post frontal air mass
originating from deep within interior Canada will promote below
average temperatures Sunday and Monday. This is short lived
however, as broad upper ridging builds into the western two
thirds of the CONUS through much of next week. By end of next
week, gradual increase in low level moisture content into the
Northern Plains region is forecast given likelihood of broad
southwest flow aloft over much of the central CONUS. This along
with weak disturbances moving through the flow aloft will allow
for periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms mid to late
next week. This pattern will also gradually increase the chance
for stronger thunderstorms, as illustrated by AI-severe guidance
such as the NSSL GEFS ML/AI convective outlook guidance, more so
late next week into next weekend.

...Chance for severe storms this afternoon...

While there is high confidence in thunderstorms forming along
and just behind the cold front as it traverses our area, there
is lower confidence in severe potential. This is mainly stemmed
from overall lack of more appreciable instability ahead of the
front feeding thunderstorms. Additionally, relatively best
shear is forecast to be displaced from thunderstorms behind the
front. Still, the degree of forcing for ascent associated with
the strong front, and mixed boundary layer/steep low level lapse
rates will allow for thunderstorm gusts to become strong to
perhaps severe at times. Strong forcing along the front and
overall boundary- parallel flow will promote linear storm mode,
further increasing confidence in gusty winds being the main
hazard.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A strong cold front will move through the region today, bringing
gusty southwest winds 15-25kt ahead of the front followed by
gusty northwest winds to 30kt, mainly after 10Z Sunday.

This front will also bring high chance (80%) of showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential to create brief, erratic winds
between 40-50kt, although confidence is low in whether or not
this will impact TAF sites.

There is some lingering smoke that may reduce visibility 4-6SM
behind the front. MVFR ceilings may also follow behind the
front.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ