531
FXUS63 KFGF 101145
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
545 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow of over 2" this weekend with winds compounding
impacts from blowing snow.

- Brief shot of Arctic air to begin next week before moderating
  once again by midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Flurries persisting with maybe another tenth or two having
fallen since midnight bringing the total since snow began
yesterday to near 1 inch. Entirely possible areas that hang on
to stratus will maintain the flurries through the day up until
the main system moves in late tonight. 511 continues to show
lightly snow covered roads which slightly slow the morning
commute.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...Synopsis...

The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation will keep weak mean
north/northwest upper flow across the northern plains. Transient
shortwave troughing and ridging will bring a widespread shot of
accumulating snow and minor impacts from snow amounts and blowing
snow Saturday/Sunday before a trailing cold front and subsequent
upper low bring a a brief stint of arctic to start next week. As the
AO phase flips to a more neutral to weakly positive state strong
upper flow will decrease chances for systems and lead to a moderating
airmass in the upper plains as highs reach back into the 20s and 30s
to end next week.

Snow showers continue this morning with near surface saturation of
the DGZ and weak WAA ahead of an incoming low level thermal
ridge/pseudo warm front aloft ahead of the next system which will
arrive late tonight.

- Snow Saturday/Sunday

Building ridging aloft in the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes will
stall the shortwave that is ridging south allowing for the low to to
dig through the plains of the Dakotas before ejecting back north
amid the SW flow aloft and stalling over Lake Superior and
occluding. During this process we will initially be on the northwest
side of the low Saturday morning as it passes to our west and south
keeping us in the favored area of frontogensis for a clipper with
broad synoptic lift as well. These factors will favor upwards of a
quarter inch of QPF by 00z Sunday (40% chance using 25 mile HREF
neighborhood probs). Using the expected SLR range of 15-20:1 for
this event that would be a conservative 3-5" for the areas that see
the most QPF (> 0.25") and lesser amounts of 1-3 across much of
northern Minnesota and northeast North Dakota. As the low wraps up
and occludes to the east on Sunday backside flurries with much
higher SLR (possibly 20-25:1) with the cooling mid-levels could
support a very fluffy 1" of additional accumulation through the day.

Since this is eastern North Dakota/NW Minnesota there will of course
be wind as well with a trailing cold front Sunday morning. While the
max winds of the NBM QMD seem a bit of a stretch at 30 mph gusting
40-45 mph something in the range of 20-25 mph with frequent gusts of
30-35 mph seems likely per the moderate post frontal cold air
advection. Using the blowing snow tables for a 20-25 mph wind and
temps of 5-10 there is a ~50% chance for advisory level blowing snow
or occasional whiteouts in the more prone rural areas. Cold air will
continue to filter souther through the day sunday before winds die
down in the early evening.

- Cold Returns (Shortly)

The surge of cold air Sunday will linger into the early week with
winds staying 5-10mph through the period even as lows Monday/Tuesday
mornings fall into the -10s creating Wind Chills in the -30s.
Probability for widespread -30 or colder wind chills Monday and
Tuesday mornings is 50% with a 30% chance Sunday morning (more tied
to strong winds than true cold air). This cold stretch will be short
lived however as the Northwest flow aloft brings a downslope airmass
off the rockies into the region highs climbing back above average
into the 20s and 30s to end the week. Scattered snow shower chances
persist through the week after this main weekend system but nothing
eye catching as of now so once we make it through this should a be
bit more tranquil and less impactful weather for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Should stratus break up this afternoon VFR conditions would
prevail but leaning more towards MVFR with flurries through the
day as a low approached with snow beginning in DVL around
midnight with IFR following the of snow with 1-3 hours. Thinking
BJI,FAR,TVF, and GFK stay MVFR through 12z tomorrow with current
timing of snow arrival but could dip into IFR before then if
snow is a little sooner to begin. Winds pivoting from NW this
morning then light south to calm this afternoon increasing out
of the S/SE overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT