886
FXUS63 KFGF 010534
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures continue into next week as Arctic
  air pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper
  Midwest. Periodic light snow and flurry chances this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Clouds moving into our southwestern counties have continued to
be a bit slower than expected, so a few spots in the southern
Red River Valley have dropped into the double digits below zero.
May have to watch for patchy fog formation along the edge of the
stratus deck but so far probabilities for visibility less than 1
mile through tomorrow morning is below 20 percent, so will keep
an eye on it for now.

UPDATE
Issued at 936 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Decreased lows a few degrees in portions of southeastern ND and
far west central MN with snow cover. Readings are already in the
-5 to -10 range, and while clouds are on their way they are coming
 in a bit slower than expected and should see another few
 degree drop into the upper single digits to 10 below zero.
 Adjusted clouds for current satellite trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Adjusted cloud cover for clearing in our western and southern
counties, but should be short lived as more clouds already see
on satellite coming in from the southwest. The clouds should
slow the free falling temperatures in the southern counties
which are already starting to drop below zero with fresh snow.
Think that will steady out in the upper single digits as clouds
come in, but will keep an eye on how readings trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...Synopsis...

Colder than average temperatures continue through the forecast
period as north to northwest H5 flow prevails. Scattered low to mid
level cloud cover today is expected to persist into the overnight
and into Monday, with flurries possible wherever clouds exist. Low
temperatures tonight will ultimately depend upon where the clearest
skies persist, with lows generally expected to fall either side of
zero degrees. Another shortwave approaches the area Tuesday into
Wednesday, with light snow possible, along with a surge of
reinforcing Arctic air. The 850 mb temps could be as low as 20 below
zero for portions of the area, with surface temps in the teens below
zero, especially where snow cover is heaviest.

Heading into the end of next week, another shortwave will be
followed by additional chances for snow on Friday and into the
weekend. Overall, the medium range pattern supports additional cold
air and occasional snow chances over the next couple of weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Southwesterly winds continue to bring a threat for stratus to
southwestern portions of our forecast area, although it still
has yet to get close to KFAR. KDVL is being impacted by IFR
stratus and flurries coming off of the lake. Should see the Red
River Valley airports dropping down to MVFR, possibly IFR,
towards tomorrow morning. The ND side should see some
improvement to VFR by the tail end of the period.  The MN
airports will see some brief clearing in the next few hours
before MVFR to IFR ceilings move back in later tomorrow. Can`t
completely rule out some patchy BR or even FG forming, but not
confident enough to put into the TAFs as at this point stratus
seems more likely. Winds will remain mostly southwesterly at
around 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR