456
FXUS63 KFGF 040328
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
  into Monday. Best chances are across southeast North Dakota
  and northwest Minnesota. Locally heavy rain and lightning are
  the main threats.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible off and on from
  Tuesday afternoon onward through much of next week and into
  the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Showers have diminished in coverage though have remained in the
southeast North Dakota region with some drizzle now noted at the
office here in Grand Forks. Overall minimal impacts minus the
dreary factor... but hey at least it isnt smokey :)

UPDATE
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Forecast remains on track with scattered showers across
southeast North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening.
Embedded thunder remains possible through 10pm in the far
southern portion of the CWA. Other than some minor tweaks to
pops to better align with the near term no changes to the
forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Weak zonal flow is in the process of strengthening as pressure
gradients increase across the Intermountain West. This will be in
response to a deepening trough approaching the Pacific Northwest,
and a building ridge situated over New Mexico and parts of the
Southwest US. As the trough deepens, a low eventually forms in the
southern Canadian Plains, then moves from west to east over the
course of next week. Shortwave passages will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday, with
better chances heading into Thursday and Friday as southwest flow
becomes stronger.

...Showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight...

A weak and slow moving mid level low continues to move across the
area this afternoon and evening, bringing mainly light showers into
portions of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.
Chances still exist that we could see an isolated thunderstorm or
two tonight as instability slowly returns to the region; however,
widespread strong storms are not expected tonight. Isolated higher
rainfall totals of up to about one inch are possible, but not
expected to be widespread.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tue through Sun...

Ensemble guidance continues to develop west to southwest flow next
week, along with several H7 shortwaves. The first shortwave arrives
Tuesday as an extension of a larger H5 low moving across
Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Return flow should be sufficient to allow
instability to build into the southern Red River Valley and
southeastern North Dakota. LREF combination probs indicate about a
60 percent combined chance for MUCAPE greater than 2000 J/Kg and
deep layer shear greater than 30 knots Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday
looks similar, albeit with less confidence due to the prevalence of
weak shortwave timing. For Thursday and Friday, there has been a
consistent signal, however, for a stronger trough or upper low
moving across the area. LREF combined probability for MUCAPE greater
than 2000 J/Kg and deep layer shear greater than 30 knots is about
70 percent both days. Model soundings show good effective shear and
good support for discrete convection as well as upscale growth
potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

MVFR conditions for BJI, FAR, DVL, and GFK as low clouds spread
north with the mid level low. Showers while intermittent will
continue for the period with thunder chances, low confidence
remains on when/where. IFR to LIFR for DVL tonight as fog
potential develops across central portions of North Dakota
though winds of 5-8 mph inhibit widespread fog from forming and
thus opting to not add it to the taf just yet.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT