012
FXUS63 KFGF 020102
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
702 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and gusty winds Tuesday evening into early
  Wednesday morning. This may degrade travel conditions,
  particularly within the southern Red River Valley.

- Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of
  the week, along with snow chances after Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Stratus/flurries are lingering in MN which mostly clear skies
are in place across more of ND (though there have been a few
stubborn pockets rebuilding in northeast ND). In the regions of
clearing temperatures are dropping quickly as would be expected
especially over regions with deeper snowpack. Near term
adjustments were made to reflect current trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals large, broad upper
troughing extending from Hudson Bay into the central CONUS. A
shortwave trough is viewable within the Canadian Rockies and
Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance brings this shortwave
trough through the Northern Plains, although without much
deepening. This also brings a weak surface low pressure and
accompanying cold front through our region Tuesday into early
Wednesday. The weak low and cold front will bring gusty winds
and light snow to the region, perhaps degrading travel impacts
some.

Well below average temperatures follow behind this cold front
Wednesday into Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to favor
northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
late this week through the weekend. This will maintain intervals
of below average temperatures while introducing snow chances
Thursday through the rest of the week.

...Snow and gusty winds late Tuesday and early Wednesday...

High resolution and ensemble guidance brings in relatively deep
boundary layer saturation (~2-3km) with the weak wave and
accompanying cold front. This increase in moisture comes with
preceding warm air advection followed by moderately strengthen
cold air advection ahead and behind the front, respectively.
This will generate broad area of light snow ahead and behind
the front. Because of the weak synoptic forcing and progressive
nature of this wave, accumulations are still anticipated to be
light, ranging from a few tenths of an inch up to 1 or 2 inches.

Behind the cold front late Tuesday, the moderately strengthen
cold air advection will help transfer gusty winds aloft toward
the surface. Sustained winds around 15-25 mph are forecast,
highest within the Red River Valley. Within the Valley, the
forecast north-northwest wind direction amid cold air advection
will activate the funneling-effect the Red River Valley can
have, locally increasing winds.

This may be important given a blowable snowpack in the southern
Red River Valley. With anticipated temperatures in the single
digits above zero late Tuesday into early Wednesday, winds
around 30-35 mph will be able to bring impactful blowing snow
with brief/isolated visibilities less than quarter mile in open
country.

While chances for sustained winds in this range are around 10%,
frequent gusts of 30-35 mph are around 70%. This could linger
into the early morning commute within the southern Red River
Valley Wednesday morning. Thus, impacts to travel conditions may
occur.

...Variable temperatures and snow chances late week...

While ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement on
northwest flow aloft late this week, they do disagree in
evolution of several shortwave troughs riding a baroclinic zone
paralleling flow aloft. Should these troughs move closer to our
area, chance for snow as well as snow amounts would increase.
This may result in several days of periodic snow chances,
including accumulations that may be impactful. The evolution and
track of these shortwave troughs will also influence winds
across the region, bringing their own potential for impacts.

Regardless, confidence is too low to comment on potential for
impacts beyond Thursday from snow and wind, as predictability in
synoptic evolution/track as well as mesoscale features is too
low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR stratus lingers in northwest MN with the clearing line
stalling as additional clouds have filled back in over parts of
the Red River Valley where VFR is still prevailing, but pockets
of MVFR are moving west to east. Due to weakening BL flow and
low levels stabilizing trends support this stratus in MN holding
and eventually IFR developing later this evening/overnight.
Prevailing VFR is favored in eastern ND through Tuesday morning,
but may not arrive until mixing and BL flow increases from the
south then southwest in MN.

A mid level wave moves through the region Tuesday and a cold
front arrives late afternoon and evening resulting in a period
of light snow across the region. The best chances for
accumulating snow and visibility reductions would be in
northeast ND and northwest MN late in the TAF period based on
current guidance. This front will bring shifting winds from the
south to the west and eventually northwest Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR