275
FXUS63 KFGF 121513
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1013 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the
  morning hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms may
  develop this afternoon and evening mainly in northwest
  Minnesota. This will result in impacts to outdoor activities
  such as harvest operations.

- Strong winds are expected along and west of the Red River
  Valley through the early evening with gusts up to 50 mph.
  Strong winds are likely to continue across the Devils Lake
  Basin through midnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Periodic advisory-criteria wind gusts (45 mph) are starting be
observed in the southern Red River Valley amid south-southeast
flow. This will likely be case through the morning as daytime
mixing near the surface attempts to tap into the very strong,
southerly low level jet just above the surface.

The leading, warm sector low level jet will migrate east into
central/east MN waning some. This should leave a brief lull in
gusty winds near the incoming cold front from the west this
afternoon. Main area of focus for gustiest winds then comes
behind the cold front/reinforcing cold front later this
afternoon and evening within eastern ND, particularly Devils
Lake basin. There is a 10% chance for warning-criteria gusts (58
mph) in the Devils Lake basin should cold air advection come in
stronger than currently forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The mid level dry/subsident region is working its way into
eastern ND with showers still lingering in the immediate Red
River Valley. General timing of activity is on track, though
adjustments to coverage were necessary to reflect current trends
during the morning hours, especially in northwest MN where areas
of showers appear to continue to into midday (a little slower
than previous forecast).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...Synopsis...

SW flow is in place ahead of an approaching upper trough this
morning as an embedded wave is moving through the region. This
is responsible for ongoing rain this morning, and after a dry
slot tracks across the region another round of showers/isolated
thunderstorms is shown to develop along a cold front this
afternoon and evening (better coverage in MN). This strong cold
front pushes through the region this afternoon and evening
bringing another round of strong winds through this evening and
much cooler temperatures through the first half of the week.
Ridging does return as long wave troughing rebuilds over the
western US and eventually SW flow returns bringing temperatures
back to seasonal ranges (upper 50s/lower 60s) and additional
rainfall chances through the end of the week and next weekend.
There is good ensemble agreement in the general pattern
evolution through the end of the week including the eventual
arrival of the trough over the Northern Plains, however there
remains higher spread in smaller details within the pattern
which influence timing/coverage/amounts of precipitation. Due to
warmer temp profiles in all guidance p-type would be rain and
only impacts would be to ongoing harvest operations or those
planning outdoor activities.

...Rain and isolated thunderstorms today...

The most organized areas of rain will be this morning with large
areas of light rain and clusters of moderate/locally heavy
rainfall tracking through SW flow along a strong LLJ and axis of
WAA. A dry slot is already developing as this initial shortwave in
SW flow transitions north and the main trough over Montana will
eventually merge and deepen through midday. This dry slot should
result in a lull/break in precipitation, with enough clearing/breaks
in cloud cover allowing low level lapse rates to possible steepen
while elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates linger.
New showers and isolated thunderstorms are shown by CAMs to
redevelop along/ahead of this front withing the Red Rive Valley as
it pushes east with coverage peaking in northwest MN before ending
this evening due to the arrival of much drier/stable air in west-
northwest flow. Many locations have received between 0.25" and 0.75"
of rainfall so far along the RRV and locations to the northeast.
Additional totals 0.1 to 0.5" may occur in eastern ND before the dry
slot arrives based on HREF and radar timing, while and HREF PMM
supports additional amounts 0.5-1.25" in our northeast where is is
more likely to linger/redevelop.

...Strong winds today...

Increasing gradient ahead of the approaching cold front and
potential increased mixing due to the arrival of the dry slot should
allow for increased southerly winds after sunrise into the early
afternoon, with periodic gusts to 45 mph. The main period of winds
is still with the arrival of the cold front and shift in winds to
the west with stronger CAA and pressure rises peaking in the late
afternoon and evening hours. Guidance continues to favor gusts to
50mph along and west of the Red River Valley. ECMWF EFI shows values
of 0.7-0.8 with no notable shift of tails, supportive of advisory
and lowered confidence in potential for warning impacts.

There is a general decreasing trend in mixed layer winds in the
immediate valley as stronger gradient transitions north into
Manitoba this evening, however guidance continues to show deep
enough mixing in the Devils Lake Basin closer to the LLJ around the
base of the mid level low in Canada and strong gusts are more likely
to linger there beyond 8 PM into the evening. The wind advisory was
extended in time for those areas in our northwest beyond 8 PM
through Midnight to cover that trend/signal. The advisory remains in
effect through 8 PM for the RRV.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Rain has now begun in earnest at KDVL, KGFK and KFAR. Rain will
quickly expand northeastward through the next two hours,
impacting all terminals overnight. Visibility will range from
VFR to MVFR while it is raining, with generally the same idea
for ceilings, teetering between VFR/MVFR. The exception will be
KDVL, where periods of IFR ceilings will sneak in overnight, so
added a TEMPO group to account for this. Rain will end from
west to east in the morning. However, already gusty winds
overnight will increase in strength during the morning hours,
with gusts to 40 knots expected during the afternoon. Winds will
also switch from the south/southeast direction that we have
seen the past few days to the west as a cold front pushes
through. Along the cold front, a few more showers are possible
from the mid afternoon through the evening at sites from the Red
River Valley to the east. Ceilings will slowly but generally
improve from tomorrow afternoon onward, with sites that are
stuck in MVFR during the morning/afternoon seeing VFR by the end
of the TAF period. The only exception will be KBJI, as being
the furthest east, lower MVFR ceilings will linger a little
longer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Highly variable flight conditions are expected through the
afternoon as organized areas of rain continue to transition from
eastern ND and northwest MN east followed by new shower
development (and a low chance for thunderstorms) this
afternoon/early evening. MVFR stratus is developing as a result
of ample BL moisture ahead of a cold front and continues to
show highly variable conditions, with guidance generally
favoring this to prevail into the afternoon before VFR returns.
South- southeast winds should increase by midday, and strongest
gusts (to 40kt) should generally impacts all eastern ND TAF
sites and KTVF through the early evening. Winds shift to the
southwest then west behind a front this afternoon and stronger
gusts are more likely to linger through 05Z at KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-053.
     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR