313
FXUS63 KFGF 182022
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather is possible this weekend across
  portions of the area, especially Sunday. The highest
  probability will be in the Red River Valley and portions of
  northwest Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow continues in the mid to upper levels this afternoon.
Cloud cover will gradually diminish as H5 troughing moves to the
east and northeast, eventually giving way to a weak shortwave ridge.
This will traverse the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this
weekend, bringing warmer temperatures in the 60s by Sunday
afternoon. Meanwhile, a cut off H5 low moves slowly across the
southwestern CONUS today and Saturday before moving into the Central
High Plains and then into the Midwest on Sunday.

 This upper low is expected to track to the northeast, then north
into the Upper Midwest by Monday morning. Rain chances increase late
Monday afternoon with precipitation overspreading much of
northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota overnight into
Tuesday morning. At this time, QPF potential is somewhat low, with
about a 60 percent chance for 0.25" of rain in northeastern North
Dakota, and about a 20 percent chance elsewhere.

...Near Critical Fire Weather Potential...

RH values fall into the middle 20s to middle 30s Saturday and
Sunday. For Saturday, most or the area will be located under a
surface ridge, keeping winds rather light. The higher chances for
near critical or critical fire weather are expected on Sunday, when
winds will be a bit higher. South winds will pick up Sunday morning,
with 15 to 20 mph sustained winds and gusts to near 35 mph
persisting through much of the day. Relative humidity will be in the
upper 20s to low 30s where the strongest winds prevail, generally in
the Red River Valley and portions of northwest Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

MVFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this afternoon with
slow improvement through this evening. A low stratus deck
continues to impact ceilings heading into the afternoon with
overcast skies and ceilings around 2000 feet. This is expected
to slowly diminish as the day progresses, eventually giving way
to VFR ceilings as early as 00Z for most areas. Winds will
continue out of the north to northwest this afternoon before
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch