741
FXUS63 KFGF 041458
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
958 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog is possible this morning for areas east of
  the Red River, mainly south of Highway 200. Visibility down to
  1/2 mile is possible at times.

- Minor travel impacts are possible this morning across portions
  of eastern North Dakota, primarily for the Devils Lake Basin
  and areas south to around Valley City. Up to 2 inches of snow
  is possible for areas west of the Red River Valley, especially
  along I-94, with areas in the Valley possibly seeing an inch
  or more snow through early this afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Dense fog has burned off across far southeastern ND and west
central MN, so can let the SPS expire at 15Z and not extend it.
Will probably change over to an SPS for light snow sometime
later today, depending on conditions. Further north and west,
there are still some minor travel impacts with the snow band
moving across the area. Extended the SPS for the eastern Devils
Lake basin into the Valley City area until early afternoon, and
will keep the one for the central CWA going. Impacts should
diminish this afternoon as the system pushes east and we get
lighter snow rates and greater melting due to sun angle.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Patchy dense fog continues across parts of west central
Minnesota and the southern Red River Valley this morning, with
light to moderate snow working into eastern North Dakota and the
northern portions of the Red River Valley. Snowfall rates are
much lighter than earlier this morning, with visibility
reductions generally limited to about 1 mile. There are still
some pockets of moderate snow moving east into Barnes County
along the I-94 corridor this morning. Although snowfall rates
have diminished slightly, minor travel impacts remain possible
through the commute period this morning across much of eastern
North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough continues to work across the Northern Plains and
into the Upper Midwest today, bringing snow to portions of eastern
North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Split flow remains in place to
the west of H5 ridging across the southeastern CONUS, which is
serving to enhance the north to south trajectory of colder air as it
moves into the Northern Plains heading into the weekend. H5 low over
the Hudson Bay is expected to deepen by late Sunday, with north to
northwest flow across the Upper Midwest. Cooler than normal
temperatures will be the result across much of the area for Sunday
and Monday. Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, H5 split flow drifts
north as the Hudson Bay low moves off to the northeast and the upper
flow becomes less amplified. Temperatures are expected to moderate
towards seasonal averages for early to mid April by mid week, with
low precipitation chances late Wednesday into early Thursday.

...Minor Travel Impacts This Morning...

Moderate to heavy snowfall rates continue this morning as a
shortwave trough enhances a mid level Theta-e gradient in Central
North Dakota. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour have been reported
at times, thus reducing visibility into the range of 1 to 3 miles.
Accumulations vary due to ground temperatures, with around a 60
percent chance for 2 inches or more snow across portions of the
Devils Lake Basin and points south to about Valley City. As the band
of heaviest snow works to the east, the gradient slowly weakens,
supporting gradually reduced snowfall rates. The highest potential
for travel impacts will be during the early morning hours and just
after sunrise. Temperatures and sun angle will then play a role in
preventing efficient snow accumulations. As such, areas in the
central and southern Red River Valley have a lower overall
accumulation potential, generally around 1 inch.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

IFR conditions prevail at KDVL this morning due to low
visibility and ceilings. Light to moderate snow is falling
within a band that continues to move eastward into the Red River
Valley and southeastern North Dakota this morning. KGFK, KFAR,
and KTVF will likely see ceilings fall into the low end of MVFR
or into IFR territory as this snow passes through the area this
morning. Most areas will see improvement during the afternoon
with winds shifting to the north, gusting upwards of 20 knots
everywhere except KBJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Lynch