669
FXUS63 KFGF 010336
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures continue into next week as Arctic
  air pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper
  Midwest. Periodic light snow and flurry chances this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Decreased lows a few degrees in portions of southeastern ND and
far west central MN with snow cover. Readings are already in the
-5 to -10 range, and while clouds are on their way they are coming
 in a bit slower than expected and should see another few
 degree drop into the upper single digits to 10 below zero.
 Adjusted clouds for current satellite trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Adjusted cloud cover for clearing in our western and southern
counties, but should be short lived as more clouds already see
on satellite coming in from the southwest. The clouds should
slow the free falling temperatures in the southern counties
which are already starting to drop below zero with fresh snow.
Think that will steady out in the upper single digits as clouds
come in, but will keep an eye on how readings trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...Synopsis...

Colder than average temperatures continue through the forecast
period as north to northwest H5 flow prevails. Scattered low to mid
level cloud cover today is expected to persist into the overnight
and into Monday, with flurries possible wherever clouds exist. Low
temperatures tonight will ultimately depend upon where the clearest
skies persist, with lows generally expected to fall either side of
zero degrees. Another shortwave approaches the area Tuesday into
Wednesday, with light snow possible, along with a surge of
reinforcing Arctic air. The 850 mb temps could be as low as 20 below
zero for portions of the area, with surface temps in the teens below
zero, especially where snow cover is heaviest.

Heading into the end of next week, another shortwave will be
followed by additional chances for snow on Friday and into the
weekend. Overall, the medium range pattern supports additional cold
air and occasional snow chances over the next couple of weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Lower VFR clouds hanging around KGFK and the MN airports, but
some clearing will be possible later this evening. However, more
MVFR to even IFR clouds expected to move in from the southwest
later tonight. Currently have most of the timing after 06Z, but
will keep an eye on how fast the stratus deck over the central
Dakotas moves northeast. There is about a 40 percent chance for
visibility less than half a mile tomorrow in portions of west
central MN, which isn`t out of the question given warm air
advection over snow pack. However, so far most model solutions
keep it out of the TAF sites and upstream is mostly stratus and
not fog. Will keep conditions MVFR to IFR with ceilings and
leave restrictions to vis out for now. Some improvement at least
at the ND airports back to VFR later tomorrow. Winds will shift
around to a more south to southwesterly direction around 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR