064
FXUS63 KFGF 200333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1033 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for weather impacts is low over the next 7
  days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Showers have ended across the area with a deck of stratus moving
into the Devils Lake Basin. Noticing some stronger winds with
this cloud bank likely owing to increased cold air advection
under the low to the north so nudged winds a tad higher in the next
few hours trying to follow the low as it ticks east. Otherwise
winds should calm by sunrise with lows in the 50s for most
though could see a few spots dip into the 40s in Towner and
Cavalier counties

UPDATE
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Increased pops slightly north of HWY 2 to better reflect
current coverage as the upper low slides by to our north with
diminished chances after 10 pm due to the loss of heating and
any MUCAPE. Thunder will remain a rare occurrence due to cloud
depths but still a low maybe 10% chance with any given cell the
next few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper low is centered over southern Manitoba, with drier BL
conditions and cooler temperatures aloft already in place behind a
cold front (now to the east). Diurnal showers/sprinkles are still
rotating  into northeast ND at the base of this upper low due to the
cold pool/low level lapse rates, but should quickly dissipate with
sunset/decoupling in the low levels. Weak shortwave ridging should
transition over the Northern Plains Friday with another mid/upper
low passing thorugh southern Canada Friday night into Saturday. The
associated cold front as trough passage is shown to support a period
of showers late Friday evening into Saturday morning, with a chance
for light rain across the region. Impacts should be minimal with the
probability for greater than 0.1" less than 20% most locations.
Seasonably mild/cooler temperatures then persist into the majority
of next week. Drier air and less favorable storm tracks then limit
any potential for precipitation (very weak signal on Tuesday). A
trend towards ridging is favored in ensembles by the end of the
week, which should result in increasing temperatures to above
average once again (70s to near 80).

...Winds Saturday Afternoon....

Stronger CAA behind the front may bring a period of windy conditions
during the afternoon Saturday. There is a low chance (less than 5%)
for advisory winds behind the front. Deterministic GFS sounding
mixing heights are deeper and show some gusts in the 45 mph range,
but ensembles and other model soundings are not supportive at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail for the TAF period with a stratus deck
sliding east through northeast ND in the 06-12z period. in
association with this cloud back will be BKN025 to BKN035 so
hovering on the MVFR threshold. Winds will also be locally
enhanced with gusts currently westerly at 25ish kts. Expect
that to continue under and immediately ahead of the cloud area
through 12z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT